Salma Hayek & Penelope Cruz Get Together For The Holidays, Bills Mom Middle Fingers the Cowboys & The John Daly Collection
How are we feeling after that weekend of sports?
Talk about a rollercoaster of emotions. What a weekend for my fellow Bengals fans. What a weekend for Browns fans. What a weekend for Lions fans.
Quick observations (full disclosure: I didn't watch the 1 ET Sunday games):
I ended up at the Somerset Collection mall in Troy, MI (yes, on Big Beaver Rd., exit 69) on Sunday and I can report that not all malls are dead. Holy crap. I get that we're a week out from Christmas, but we're talking a completely packed mall. Even the normally dead furniture area of Macy's had dads and kids sprawled out on furniture getting rest after a long day of battle.
I'm talking virtual fistfights over parking spots. Dozens of cars driving around tracking people leaving.
I can also report there were probably 200 people in the Apple Store. I'd never seen anything like it. There were hordes of people surrounding the iPhones. Hordes were swarming the iPads. It was a feeding frenzy.
And not a single storefront was boarded up. It felt like I had been transported back to the early 2000s, but I was in a mall where Screencaps Jr. & Screencaps the III were able to sit in a Tesla Y driver's seat for the first time. Yes, the mall has a Tesla store.
Question for the Tesla owners: What do you put in the frunk? The front trunk? It looks like you could throw a bag of ice in that plastic bin and cool down a case of beer. Or put your Aldi frozen food purchases in there.
Have any of you been to a Tesla frunk tailgate party where you grab beers chilling where car engines used to reside?
Email: joekinsey@gmail.com
An economic forecast for 2024 from our resident economics professor
Indy Daryl asked for an economics forecast for 2024 from Jared P. in Ohio and now we have it. If Jared P. is wrong, send in your own forecast. The email hotline is always open.
Email: joekinsey@gmail.com
• Jared P. writes:
Thank you for the patience awaiting my answer; indeed, the end of a semester is a busy time. As for my thoughts regarding the economic outlook for the next 6-12 months, I first should state that economists are generally poor at predicting future business cycle movements. There are too many unknown variables to consistently make accurate predictions. At the beginning of 2023, I, like many economists (including those at the Federal Reserve), thought the US would fall into a mild recession in the latter half of this year. We were wrong. Consumers had a lot more excess savings from the Covid stimulus packages than anticipated and interest rates did not bite as hard, thus the higher growth. To be fair, the US economy has almost never had a “soft landing,” essentially the idea that a recession does not follow after reducing higher than trend inflation, so calls for a recession were not unreasonable (see here for a more precise definition of a soft landing, though there is no generally acceptable definition in the discipline).
As for 2024, the forecast from the Federal Reserve (see page 2) seems generally correct to me, even if they have been shaky with their most recent forecasts (essentially since Covid). While inflation has fallen from its high (see here for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation index, see here for “core” inflation, that is inflation minus food and energy), I predict it will be stuck above the central bank’s target rate of 2%. My guess is inflation will be closer to 3% than 2%. Economic history shows that having inflation fall from its high is easy, it’s the last percentage point or two that is the hardest. I see no reason why this time is different. Unemployment should move above 4%, from its current rate of 3.7%. The central bank is reducing its balance sheet by roughly $95 billion per month, causing the money supply (see here for the different measures) and that reduction will eventually cause spending and production to slow, leading to a higher unemployment rate). GDP will also moderate after the blistering 3rd quarter number and will probably land in the 1.5% - 2% range for the year. The 4th quarter of 2023 is already slower than the 3rd quarter and is much more in the range of the first two quarters. If people are curious, the Atlanta Fed has a neat GDP forecast that they update regularly. Mortgage rates, and interest rates in general, should also fall (they have fallen considerably in the last few weeks), especially since the Fed has indicated it will cut the federal funds rate 3 times next year (see page 4 here).
As I stated earlier, I could very well be incorrect, but these are my best guesses given the trend in data and what the Fed has announced. I hope there weren’t too many links, I just want people to see the data and know that I’m not making things up out of thin air.
• Steve S. has some thoughts on what the economy will do in 2024:
I'm not a professional economist, although that was my college degree. I mostly follow the Austrian school of economics and am a Libertarian. My take on the economy over the next 6-12 months will likely be different than most so here goes.
Inflation won't slow down as the government will print more money and the Fed will likely try to lower interest rates to offset a deepening recession.
Housing could be in for a significant downward adjustment if Congress passes a proposed law limiting big investment houses (think Blackrock) from buying homes.
Precious metals will increase as the instability in Ukraine and the Middle East continue with the US sponsoring both wars with our armaments.
I won't try to guess what the stock market will do.
This guy must get all the ladies
• Darren writes:
Another day in Paradise.
HAS to be an employee because I see this parked FACING the entrance to a busy shopping center whenever I shop there.
An invitation to ride shotgun
• Shane B. writes:
As I am reading through my community page as part of my daily routine, I recalled as an early premium Outkick supporter I was able to jump on a call with others that you hosted. I remember having no idea it was live and you called me out when I joined. Talked some local sports stories and heard from others in the much smaller community at that point. I am not sure that format is any longer feasible, but truly a great memory and it really drew me in. Inspirational things such as “Do Hard Things” that I tell myself daily, to the TNML and the amazing food ideas, you’ve come a long way since that community call. A much-needed and appreciated jump start to my day every day I can.
Indy Darryl inspired me to expand his Do Hard Things to create my own slogan to fit what I like to do and break my own lazy habits. “Go Do Shit” get off the couch, shut off the TV find something to do. Anyway, I have a couple of fun hobbies that supports this motto and was hoping to tap into the community to see who may share in these with me.
I am looking for places to go and people to ride with. I would also like to extend an invitation for you to ride shotgun and take over the wheel on a ride sometime. It is about as much as you can have with your clothes on. Perhaps I have missed this topic on posts that I missed but wanted to get it out there.
Also, yes that is my Shop, I commonly refer to it as my “estrogen-free zone” where I often work, smoke cigars and make an occasional old-fashioned while contemplating life and the next ride. I do have snowmobiles as well, but even though I am a lifelong MN resident, the cold has wore me down and that hobby has slowed a little but willing to add that to the community ask.
Kinsey:
Now that's an interesting man cave or man barn or whatever that room is. This is Dan Bilzerian-esque back when he actually posted on social media.
Snowmobiles have my attention more than the dirt bikes. Those days are over. I'm to the age where I need four wheels or a sled base under me.
Shane is a Minneapolis guy. Who's in the region that wants to ride with this guy?
First-time emailer!
Chris B. from Johnson City, TN writes:
First time, long time. Been meaning to write for years. Rec league basketball was over early today and had a minute. (Cheer dad)
I love all the topics and interesting people. Grew up in Ohio and like the Midwest stuff. In Tennessee now. Go Bucks.
Anyway, thought I’d finally chime in on meeting my wife. It wasn’t a bar, but close. I had a big group of buddies in college that I lifted with. Only one guy had a girlfriend. (The rest of us were focused on science and engineering and what supplements Mark McGwire was taking.)
That guy’s girlfriend was an organizer and set up a spring break trip.
She brought about 12 of her friends and invited about 10 of us guys. Some of us knew each other from campus parties and some were new to each other. We all hung out and paired up that week. I had never seen the girl who became my wife before that trip.
I met my wife and the mother of my children on Spring Break 2000 in Negril Jamaica while pounding Red Stripe and Miller Lite. Two other couples from that spring break got married and lived happily ever after, too.
Maybe there are others who met on spring break. As an analytical, organized person, I never would have guessed I’d find my wife at a bar, let alone on spring break in another country. I figured I’d find a cute girl in calculus or chemistry class. The Lord works in mysterious ways.
• Chris B. added:
Here’s an owl on my neighbor’s roof with a full moon rising for Todd. (I hope that’s his name)
Speaking of meeting your wife in a foreign country
• Michael C. shares this one:
Met my wife in a bar named Beto Safari in Acapulco in February 1988 that was well known for debauchery. When you entered the joint they quickly sat you down on a bar stool, placed a hard hat on you, clanged a metal tequila popper off your hard hat and then down the hatch.
After that initiation, you were granted entry. Spotted my future wife who also just happened to be on vacation that week in Acapulco on the dance floor with her girlfriends.
There were a bunch of guys standing around the dance floor gawking. I wandered right up to her and asked if any of these stunned patrons had asked her to dance.
We then proceeded to have a blast on this sultry night at one point asking the bartender hey what time do you close. He responded "When the last gringo leaves". Below is a postcard of the bar in its heyday.
Today marks our 34th wedding anniversary and we'll spend some of it with our four grandkids…You never know what twists life will take when you head into a bar…
For a good cause
• Louie in Savannah caught some minor league hockey this weekend:
Grabbed a video and some pics of a fun experience this afternoon at the Savannah Ghost Pirates hockey game this afternoon….
TOSS A TEDDY Game, fans bring a stuffed animal to the game and after the Ghost Pirates score their first goal, all the stuffed animals get tossed onto the ice. All the stuffed toys are collected and donated to the local children’s hospital. Christmas music blaring while it happens, very appropriate for the season.
It was a lot of fun. Ghost Pirates ended up winning 6-1 over the Greenville Swamp Rabbits.
ECHL Hockey League is a good time, it gets chippy.
Congrats on your Bengals pulling it off yesterday, it was a wild one.
I didn’t miss much heading to the rink and missing my Pats today, apparently Tay Tay was all over the TV from what I heard.
Let's have a great week
• Paul in Laguna writes:
Clear sunrise view from my patio Laguna past San Diego to Mexico.
Congrats to those of you who woke up this morning on vacation. The guys in my text group got out on the road early this morning and made sure to tell each other how hard they're working before their Christmas breaks.
Meanwhile, it's a normal week here at OutKick. We have football. We have college basketball. This is actually a busy time of the year for us because so many of you aren't working.
Let's go have a big week.
Email: joekinsey@gmail.com