Reality Creeping Up On Democrats: They Are Stuck With Biden And Trump Is The Favorite | Bobby Burack

Joe Biden's approval ratings dipped on Monday to 37.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight – his lowest since taking office in 2021.

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver admitted there is a great "risk" in Biden dropping out of the race, but acknowledged the president is approaching a threshold where bowing out would give Democrats a better chance in the November election.

"What's clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country," adds Silver.

Joe Biden is a notoriously feeble candidate whose track record should be challenging for moderate voters to reason with – be it inflation, the border, rising crime rates, or foreign policies that are anything but American First.

The party never embraced Biden. Democrat politicians didn't support him until they had no other choice during the 2020 primary. Thusly, names like Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom would undoubtedly be more appealing to the party, as the betting odds suggested between December and March.

However, Michelle Obama, who has no qualifications to run for president, has repeatedly said publicly and privately that she's not interested.

Newsom would also have better rallied the base than Biden, who is 25 years his senior. That said, Democrats have embedded themselves too deep into diversity and equity messaging to allow Republicans to weaponize the idea of the party elevating a white man over the current vice president, Kamala Harris. 

And Harris is not viable. As weak of a candidate as Joe Biden is, he's stronger than Harris – an unpopular, career-long diversity hire. 

So, while Democrats could still command Biden to disclose an illness and drop out of the race, they'd also have to establish a clear and suitable replacement. On the surface, that person has not emerged.

In fact, oddsmakers still list Michelle Obama as the third most likely subject to win the election:

Further, replacing Biden now, two months before the Democratic National Convention, would be a profound admission of how greatly the party fears Donald Trump -- despite his kangaroo conviction.

Consequently, Biden will most likely remain the Democrat nominee on the ballot.

If so, his clearest path to victory might be the recently floated "270-268 scenario."

"Joe Biden’s clearest path to 270 Electoral College votes is by winning the Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin along with Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which encompasses urban Omaha," argued the publication Washington Monthly. 

"Adding those to the safely blue states yields a 270-268 Biden win."

Consider such a path for Biden precarious, at best. 

Trump currently leads Biden in all three states, per FiveThirtyEight analysis. Granted, the margins are razor-thin: Michigan (Trump, +0.3), Wisconsin (Trump. +0.7), and Pennsylvania (Trump, +1.3). 

Silver also mentions that the three states may not vote as a trio in 2024, noting Michigan could depart from the unit due to the events in Gaza.

"Michigan, typically the bluest of the trio, has a substantial Arab American and Palestinian American population, which Wisconsin and Pennsylvania do not," said Silver. 

Silver prefaced that he "think[s] the electoral effects of Gaza are overstated," an observation with which we disagree.

Either way, a scenario in which one state could decide the outcome of the election is an ominous prospect for a nation already facing emotional instability. 

While MSNBC host Chris Hayes warns against Republican interference, he's right in that a "situation where flipping any state (or Omaha) changes the outcome producing insane incentives for foul play."

There are Democrats who believe it is their moral duty to prevent Trump from winning the election. No honest person could put anything past the powers that be in terms of harming Trump's election efforts, including harming him.

Still, for now, the most unpleasant reality has crept up on Democrats: they are stuck with Joe Biden and Donald Trump is the firm favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.