Donald Trump's 2024 Odds Surge Following Verdict
On Thursday, the state of New York found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. By Friday morning, the betting odds for Trump to win the presidential election surged from +146 to -105.
According to the odds, Trump is more likely to win the 2024 election today than at any point in the past three and a half years – and by a wide margin. In fact, Friday is the first day any candidate has risen to a "negative line," meaning the outcome is more likely than not.
The market has favored Trump over Biden since September, but the margins had been narrow. Biden is now +166, his longest odds since last June.
Consider that the betting market, though mostly obscure in mainstream political coverage, was markedly more accurate in 2016 and 2020 than political polling.
Notoriously, the market shifted for Trump on election night in 2016 when he was still viewed as a lengthy underdog. Likewise, Biden jumped Trump as the favorite during election night in 2020 when Trump had what appeared to be a definitive lead.
So the current odds lend great credence to the idea that the politically motivated trial against Trump will help his election efforts.
And to understand why, we take you back to 2016.
Donald Trump won the election as a mercurial outsider with no real political experience. It was one of the most stunning results in U.S. history.
Happy countries do not elect Donald Trump. Countries that no longer trust their institutions elect Donald Trump.
Voting for Trump was a vote against Washington, the machine and the deep state. His victory was a middle finger to the face of the establishment.
That's how Trump won in 2016. And that's how he will win in 2024.
NEW YORK - Former President Donald Trump walks to speak to the media following his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 30, 2024. The former president was found guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first of his criminal cases to go to trial. (Photo by Seth Wenig-Pool/Getty Images)
The verdict made Donald Trump's case for him: the system is rigged. Every institution is politicized and weaponized against dissenting figures. Friday marked the end of the most honest justice system in the world.
Judge Juan Merchan and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg are Democrat operatives who showed a willingness to skirt justice on behalf of the party they support.
A voter need not be a Republican or a partisan to acknowledge the witch hunt against Donald Trump is immoral and un-American. The precedent that New York set by convicting Trump is dangerous and sure to be exploited further.
A politically compromised justice system is a threat to you, your family and the future of the country.
Donald Trump should be the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. But not simply because he's the stronger of the two candidates, which he is.
Trump should be the favorite because the system is corrupt and everyone in the system is already groomed to accept that.
Related: Bobby Burack guest hosted Fox News' "The Will Cain Show." Listen to the episode with him and Rachel Campos-Duffy here.