Your weekend guide to winning betting for September 16-17
In my humble opinion, betting sports is the funnest non-bedroom activity that someone can do. But, the NFL is the king of sports betting. I mean, all gambling is awesome, if done responsibly and you can still pay your bills afterward.
Since giving out bets is my full-time job (yes, it is awesome, thanks OutKick), I spend far more time looking at sports stuff than you. That's not a brag. It's actually weird how often I'm on Pro Football Focus, FanGraphs, etc.
Sports betting kiosks at the Oneida Casino in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Samantha Madar/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin)
With that in mind, let me offer you professional guidance for the weekend. Instead of boring you with numbers and trends you don't care about, I'm firing from the hip. Feel free to tail or fade my ...
Best bets for September 16-17
Biggest college football 'beatdown': No. 7 Penn State -15 at Illinois, noon ET Saturday
People don't realize this because they aren't Michigan or Ohio State but the Nittany Lions are clearly the 3rd-best football program in the Big Ten. Penn State truck-sticked every team last year not named the "Wolverines" or "Buckeyes".
In 2022, Illinois was a tough out. This season, the Fighting Illini will be a punching bag in the Big Ten West. Illinois lost its starting quarterback, running back, and a top-10 NFL draft pick on defense from last year's team.
Penn State Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar throws a pass vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. (Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports)
Under sophomore QB, and 5-star recruit, Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions will go into Champaign and boat-race the Fighting Illini. Hopefully, Penn State puts on course for a big sports betting weekend as a pose to firing from the hole.
BET: Penn State -15 over Illinois at PointsBet
'Let-down' spot of the weekend: Wyoming +30 at No. 4 Texas, 8 p.m. ET Saturday
All I'm hearing this week is "Texas is back!" The Longhorns got the biggest win in their program since God knows when last week. Texas went into Tuscaloosa and upset Alabama 34-24 this past Saturday.
Next week, the Longhorns begin conference play so it's just natural for them to look ahead. However, that would be stupid because Wyoming is actually a good team.
Actor Matthew McConaughey holds up the horns during the Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Aaron E. Martinez/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Wyoming is 2-0 and upset a Texas Tech team in Week 1 that beat Texas last year. Plus, +30 is a HUGE number. If the Longhorns come out or finish sluggish, the Cowboys can keep it within four scores.
BET: Wyoming +30 over Texas at PointsBet
Baseball bankroll builder to use on NFL bets: Reds at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET Saturday
As a New York native take it from me, Mets fans are the absolute worst. They'd rather see the Yankees lose than their own team win. Mets fans are a more obnoxious version of LA Clippers fans.
Even though my Yankees suck, at least the Mets do too. No one cares but NY's opponent Saturday, the Cincinnati Reds, are in the NL playoff race.
Reds LHP Andrew Abbott pitches vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports)
Reds LHP Andrew Abbott is their projected starter. Abbott has the best winning percentage, WHIP, and ERA in Cincy's starting rotation.
Most importantly, the Mets phony lineup actually sucks vs. left-handed pitching. The Mets are 16 games below-.500 against lefty starters this season (14-30).
BET: Reds vs. Mets
The NFL 'Bounce-Back' spot of the weekend: Bengals (-3.5) vs. Ravens Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Apparently, it's going to be a good weekend for Cincinnati sports. The Bengals got demolished 24-3 in Week 1 by the Cleveland Browns in the "Battle of Ohio". The whooping might have caught Bengals fans off guard but not me.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow makes adjustments at the line of scrimmage vs. the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Even though I'm still concerned with Cincy QB Joe Burrow's health, I'm betting the Bengals get-right Sunday vs. this banged-up Baltimore squad. The Ravens could be missing six starters in Week 2 and they are weak in the areas needed to stop the Bengals.
BET: Bengals -3.5 over Ravens at PointsBet
The NFL 'Get-Out Game': Dolphins (-2.5) at Patriots Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET.
NFL's Sunday Night Football is considered the "get-out game" because it could be bettors last chance to win money or break even for the week. Typically, gamblers are chasing come Sunday night but we'll be building on our surplus.
The Dolphins (-2.5) visiting the Patriots is the "get-out game" of Week 2. Without getting too far into the weeds, let's just say I think New England QB Mac Jones is awful. One of my most profitable NFL angles last season was fading Mr. Jones.
Patriots QB Mac Jones drops back to pass vs. the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Winslow Townson/Getty Images)
Also, Miami's defense can make New England's offense one-dimensional. The Patriots couldn't run the ball last week vs. the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dolphins had a top-10 run defense last season.
Finally, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is a perfect 4-0 in his career vs. the Patriots and Tua went "bombs away" on the LA Chargers in Week 1. Everyone says New England's defense is legit but I disagree. Tua and the Dolphins are going to torch the Patriots Sunday.