You Wont Like It But Take The Points With Jacksonville

Jaguars vs. Lions, 1:00 ET

I'm sure it has happened before, but I haven't hit a first touchdown scorer in a few weeks. I've nailed a couple of first team touchdown scorers, but that isn't the way I played them, so it left me with a big goose egg. I'm pretty sure it will eventually balance out, but my expectation is that it will happen in one week and I'll bet $5 on a parlay of them all and make six figures on the bet. Normal expectations, right? Either way, I have expectations that we get a win today on a play in the game between the Jaguars and Lions.

The Jaguars are… well… not good. They are only 2-8 for the season and haven't won a road game this year. Coach Doug Pederson is coaching for his job and not doing a great job of it. Trevor Lawrence, a guy that was once viewed as a can't miss prospect looks like a guy that is nothing but misses. He is out this week, adding injury to the list of issues with the Jaguars. Jacksonville is just 1-4 over their past five games. I can't say they have been terrible in the games - they have lost their past three by just one score. Last week they played well against Minnesota, but it wasn't enough as the Vikings won the game 12-7. So what can you expect out of them this week with their backup quarterback coming in here? They do have a reasonable backup in Mac Jones, but they don't have much in terms of offensive weapons. Their wide receivers are rough. They have some talent, but it isn't like any one of them are true primary options. Their running game does give some encouragement with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, but if the Lions want to load the box to prevent the run, they can.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 10: Quarterback Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions hands off the ball to running back Jahmyr Gibbs #26 during an NFL game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on November 10, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

The Lions have been getting all the praise in the world, and they deserve it. Detroit, home of the Lions who have had terrible outcomes and are the owner of the worst record in football history, somewhat deserves a good team. They've put together a great season to this point and are 8-1. They lost their best defensive player for the season and didn't miss a beat. Last week, I wrote about how Jared Goff wasn't making stupid mistakes. He then proceeded to make me look like a dummy by tossing five interceptions in the game. The Lions still found a way to win. It certainly wasn't the dominating victory that you'd hope for, but this has been a brutal stretch for the Lions with four road games in their past five. I have to expect Goff will be better here, but he can't get much worse. The Jaguars rush defense isn't great, and that's a good thing for the Lions who feature two great running backs. 

There isn't much to like about Jacksonville this season. They've struggled all year and look a little disinterested in the game. I expect the Lions to be able to get as much rushing yardage as they want in this one, but that speeds up the clock a bit. I am not leaning toward the under though. My play in this one is to take the points with the Jaguars. The Lions are not wounded, but they also aren't perfect. This is a bit of a game you don't take too seriously. Mac Jones is auditioning for his next role, and although he looked rough last week, I think he could at least manage the offense well enough. There are plenty of reasons for the Jags to keep working. I'll back the Jaguars at +13.5.

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