You Have To Be Crazy To Bet Buccaneers Over Falcons In NFL Week 14
Who are these people betting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) when they visit the Atlanta Falcons (6-6) Sunday in NFL Week 14? Per Pregame.com, more than 75% of the action is on the Buccaneers +2.5 as of 2:30 p.m. ET Tuesday afternoon. Since I think Atlanta will close as -3 or -3.5 favorites, I'll lock in a FALCONS -2.5 (-110) bet ASAP.
Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. forces a fumble by Atlanta Falcons QB Desmond Ridder at the goal-line at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)
In Week 13, Atlanta eked past the crappy New York Jets 13-8 in an uninspiring performance. But, the same can be said about the Bucs. They beat the now 1-11 Carolina Panthers 21-18 in Tampa, failing to cover as -3.5 favorites.
Since neither team looked good last week, I don't see why the market is backing the Buccaneers currently. Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 16-13 on the road in their first meeting this season in Week 7. Yet, if you actually watched that game, the Falcons should've scored at least 30 points.
The Dirty Birds out-gained the Bucs 6.3-5.1 in yards per play (YPP). However, Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder fumbled TWICE on the goal-line and the Falcons went 0-for-5 in the red zone. Ridder's recklessness literally cost the Falcons two TDs.
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Also, the Falcons are clearly the "right side" after looking at the statistical profiles for both teams. They have a higher net YPP, success rate differential and net pressure rate, and perform better in high-leverage situations.
Ridder celebrates with teammates after scoring vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
In fact, the gap between Atlanta and Tampa Bay in those metrics is wide. The Dirty Birds rank 14th with a +0.9% net success rate and the Bucs are 29th with a -5.1%. Atlanta ranks 5th with a +7.6% net 3rd-down conversion rate and Tampa's -1.8% puts it at 20th.
Finally, the Falcons should be able to move the ball again Sunday. The Buccaneers have a banged-up linebacker room, which hurts their run defense, and Tampa already has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.