You Can, And Should, Bet On the NBA Draft

The title of this article is probably not necessarily a shock. I would guess that most casual bettors know that you can bet on the NBA Draft. You can bet on the NFL one and there is a ton of coverage on that, so why couldn't you bet on the NBA Draft? Heck, I think you could've bet on the WNBA Draft this season (I think Caitlin Clark was something like -10000 to be picked first overall). Anyway, it isn't enough to know that you can bet on the draft. I think we should bet on it. With loads of opportunity and ambiguity, we will play it safe, but let's have a bit of fun.

Let us start at the beginning, because, well, that's a great place to start. The Atlanta Hawks have no idea what they are doing with their basketball team. They have Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. I don't particularly think Young is a guy that will get you to an NBA Championship. He is more like a poor man's Carmelo Anthony, a scorer, but not much else. Murray is more of a complete player, but I don't think he gets you a championship either. Ideally, he would be a third option on a team, but he's shown he can put up numbers on bad teams, so you need to see how he would adapt to being a role player. That means the Hawks have two very good players on the team, but they are still a bad team and have the #1 overall pick. Right now, it seems like there are two names that have gotten the most attention for first overall: Zaccharie Risacher and Alexandre Sarr. Risacher is a French player, born in Spain. He is a 6'9" forward, but from what I've seen, I don't know that he is a "win now" type of guy. If the Hawks were to draft him and keep both Young and Murray, it could be a good opportunity for him to develop under-the-radar. He won't be blamed for the teams failures. However, he could learn some bad habits and get used to losing. At -480, he isn't worth playing anyway, but I would consider Alexandre Sarr. Sarr is a 7'1" player that has been compared to a Darko Milic-bust and a Giannis-type of forward. Basically, a wide range and nothing agreed on by scouts. At +1100 he is worth a sprinkle to go #1 overall. The other option to consider is Donovan Clingan. He is regarded as the best shot blocker in the draft, and I certainly understand why after watching the NCAA Tournament. To be honest, that might be what the Hawks need the most. Their defense is atrocious, and Clint Capela isn't getting younger. At +550, this is worth putting more than a sprinkle. Sure, it looks like it may be decided, but Clingan could be a surprise for the Hawks with an uncertain draft board. 

Now that we've passed number one, the rest of the board gets equally crazy. Let's take a look at some of the bigger names in the draft and see what we can do with their over/under draft position. 

Zach Edey O/U 14.5

Edey was one of the best college basketball players in recent memory and took his team to face Clingan's squad in the NCAA Championship. It wasn't quite enough as the team fell, but it wasn't really Edey's fault either. The biggest question is his athleticism and lateral movement. Edey will likely be a foul machine and cannot stretch the floor. I fully support the over being -148, and do think this is a safe bet. 

Donovan Clingan O/U 3.5 

I've already talked about him a bit, but want to throw this out there. If he doesn't go #1, he will likely go #6 or #9. Assume he isn't picked first overall for this. Washington needs every position, but they need home runs. Clingan is a great piece for a lot of teams, but not a home run. He won't transform the franchise and doesn't have the projection to do that. Charlotte at 6 could use a center, someone to help that terrible Hornets team play some defense. They have a couple of decent players on the roster, but Clingan could be a starter immediately. At 9, the Grizzlies lurk in the wings. I expect them to try and draft Clingan because they really don't have a true center and he could be that piece for them. If you couple him with Jaren Jackson Jr., you have two really strong shot blockers at your disposal. Clingan is +2000 at #9 and +750 at #6. I'd put a unit on #9 and live with the loss if we take it. 

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 14: Bronny James #6 of the USC Trojans looks on in the second half of a quarterfinal game against the Arizona Wildcats during the Pac-12 Conference basketball tournament at T-Mobile Arena on March 14, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Wildcats defeated the Trojans 70-49. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)

Bronny James O/U 54.5

No NBA Draft piece would be complete without some conversation around Bronny James, right? James, the son of LeBron, has taken more attention than most of his peers, despite him basically being labeled as not ready for the NBA. He didn't do anything in college and didn't look great at the combine either. The Lakers will draft for the first time at #55. LeBron has already said he wants to play with his kid, but his agent has said it isn't crucial. It is clear, the books think that teams will let Bronny drop to play with LeBron. He is -158 to be drafted higher than 54.5. Take the under. I can't imagine teams openly letting Bronny fall to accommodate LeBron. If I was a team like the Celtics, I'd take him. If I was a team like Charlotte or Detroit, I'd take him and see if LeBron wants to come and play here. This is a business and your franchise is going to make a lot of money with LeBron on the squad. These are billionaires, not idiots. Take the under. 

There are a few bets in here that I have shared. Don't play them crazy. If you had $100 to spend on this, I'd break it up like this: $50 on Clingan to be #9 overall. $15 on Edey over 14.5. $10 on Clingan #1 overall at +550. And, $25 on Bronny under 54.5. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024