Yankees, Cole Will Out-Duel Mets, Verlander In Subway Series Finale
The New York Yankees (38-29) take the 7 Train to Flushing to play the cross-town rival New York Mets (31-26) in the 2nd of their Subway Series back-to-back.
NYY won the series opener 7-6 Tuesday. Yankees starting RHP Luis Severino and Mets' Max Scherzer both sucked Tuesday but NYY's bullpen shut the door on NYM's late-inning rallies.
It's a battle of the aces for the Subway Series finale. The Yankees turn to Gerrit Cole (7-1, 2.84 ERA) Tuesday to face his former teammate, Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.85 ERA).
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole gathers his thoughts before taking the mound against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. (John Jones-USA TODAY Sports)
Cole gave the Yankees a "quality start" in his last outing Friday with six innings, two earned runs, and a 6/1 K/BB rate. But, NYY lost to the Red Sox 3-2. Cole has the 3rd-best odds to win the 2023 AL Cy Young at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Verlander on the other hand has struggled in his 1st season in Queens. Virtually all of Verlander's basic and advanced pitching stats of worsened from last year when he won the 2022 AL Cy Young for the Astros.
Yankees vs. Mets odds (DraftKings)
Betting odds for the Yankees vs. Mets Wednesday, June 14 from DraftKings as of 3:30 p.m. ET.
Essentially, this is too good of a number to pass up when you look at the Yankees' edge in pitching and the Mets recent performance. The Mets are 1-9 over the last 10 games. All of those games have been vs. above-.500 clubs.
For my money, Cole is the best pitcher in MLB and, according to FanGraphs, Cole ranks 5th in Stuff+. His fastball and curveball spin both rank in the 87th percentile and Cole has one of the most effective fastballs in baseball, per Statcast.
Cole celebrates after a big out against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. (New York Yankees/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Yankees' relief pitching is much more reliable. The Yankees' bullpen rank in the top-10 for FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), WAR, and HR/9 rate. Whereas the Mets' bullpen is in the bottom-10.
Finally, NYY plays in the most dominant division in baseball. The teams with the four best records in non-division games all come from the AL East: 1- Rays, 2- Blue Jays, 3- Orioles, and 4- Yankees. The Mets are 19-25 outside of the NL East.