Wrong Team Favored In Oklahoma State, Baylor Saturday

The No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0, 0-0 in Big XII) start conference play when they meet the No. 16 Baylor Bears (3-1, 1-0 in Big XII) Saturday at McLane Stadium.

OK State dominated the FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 63-7 Sept. 17th, covering as 54.5-point home favorites. The blemish on OK State's early-season resume is 58-44 victory in Week 1 at home vs. the Central Michigan Chippewas where the Cowboys failed to cover as 20.5-point favorites.

Baylor upset the Iowa State Cyclones 31-24 last week on the road as 2.5-point underdogs. The Bears lost at the No. 19 BYU Cougars 26-20 in overtime Sept. 10. Otherwise, Baylor has covered vs. every other opponent this season.

OK State-Baylor is in a rematch of last year's conference title game, which Baylor won 21-16. The Cowboys beat the Bears in their 2021 regular-season meeting 24-14 at OK State. The Big XII title game ended with four consecutive Baylor stops when OK State had goal-to-go and a 1:19 remaining.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS +2.5 (-110) because they have the better coach and quarterback and Baylor is the public play.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

Cowboys have coaching and quarterback edges

Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders. (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

OK State has a higher net expected points added per play (EPA/play), net success rate and net yards per play than Baylor. Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders has the 3rd-best non-garbage time EPA/play in the Big XII and Bears QB Blake Shapen is 7th.

Now that Lincoln Riley went to USC, OK State coach Mike Gundy is clearly the best in the Big XII. Both programs lost a ton of production this offseason. OK State is 118th in returning production, per ESPN's Bill Connelly, and Baylor is 99th.

But, I trust Gundy a lot more to reload than 3rd-year Baylor head coach, David Aranda. Gundy is the reigning Big XII Coach of the Year and Aranda is new on the scene.

'Good spot' for Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State Cowboys are stopped short of the goal line by Baylor Bears defenders in the Big 12 Football Championship (Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

Over the last five seasons, OK State is 6-1 ATS with a +5.4 ATS margin as road underdogs and 9-3 ATS following bye weeks. The Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

More than 70% of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Baylor, according to VSIN. With OK State, I get the better program, coach, quarterback, and the points.

Finally, OK State's strength on defense negates Baylor's strength on offense and what the Bears like to do. Baylor is 17th in rushing attempts per game. Well, OK State leads the conference in rushing EPA/play and defensive line yards per snap, with a bullet.

BET the OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Sept. 30 at 2:55 p.m. ET