Wrong Team Favored In Browns-Texans Matchup For NFL Super Wild Card Weekend
The Cleveland Browns play the AFC South champion Houston Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday to kickoff NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. Unfortunately, I have to hop of the Browns bandwagon I started. Cleveland is my preseason pick to win the 2024 Super Bowl at 40-to-1 odds.
But, their weird quarterback situation and grueling division forced the Browns into a wild card seed. Cleveland went from Deshaun Watson to rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to QB P.J. Walker back to Watson back to DTR before getting Joe Flacco off the couch in Week 13. (The Browns starting QB Jeff Driskel with nothing to play for in Week 18 doesn't count).
Joe Flacco celebrates after scoring a TD vs. the New York Jets in NFL Week 17 at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Regardless, Cleveland was probably always finishing at least 2nd to the Baltimore Ravens in AFC North. The Browns split their two regular-season meetings with the Ravens. However, Baltimore had the best record in the NFL and the most impressive resume.
Speaking of "impressive resumes", what a start to the careers of Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud and 1st-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. Houston won the AFC South by beating the Indianapolis Colts on the road in Week 18 and the Jacksonville Jaguars losing at the Tennessee Titans Sunday.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans NFL Wild Card odds (FanDuel Sportsbook)
There's a popular NFL betting system where you "fade QBs making their 1st playoff starts". I don't have the exact records in front of me but it's something I've heard in my years of betting football. Well, too much of "Stroud's lack of playoff experience" is baked into these odds.
The Texans-Colts in Week 18 was a de facto playoff game. It was a road "island" game in primetime. The stakes were "Winner clinches a postseason berth. Loser is most likely eliminated from playoff contention barring a ton of help."
Well, Stroud balled out. He threw a 75-yard TD bomb to WR Nico Collins in Houston's 1st play of the game. Stroud ended with 264 passing yards, completed 20-of-26 attempts for 2 TDs and 0 INT with a 134.1 QB Rating.
Frankly, I'm more worried about Cleveland's defense than Stroud's playoff poise. The Browns had a top-three defense this season, which would've been higher if they played better on the road. Cleveland gave up 1.8 more yards per play in away games (5.4-3.7) and 15.7 more points per game (29.6-13.9).
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That said, at least the Texans have an elite left tackle (Laremy Tunsil) to try and block Browns All-Pro pass rusher Myles Garrett. Stroud is the best rookie QB since RGIII or Andrew Luck and Collins is an All-Pro-caliber wideout.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud points to the heavens after scoring a TD vs. the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Also, this spread is just out of whack. Cleveland beat Houston 36-22 in Week 16. The Browns closed as -3 favorites and the Texans started QB Case Keenum because Stroud was still concussed. Houston QB Davis Mills ended up replacing Keenum mid-game. Either way, Stroud is more than a half-point better than those stiffs.
Furthermore, we are overdo for a Flacco clunker and the Texans can make Cleveland's offense one-dimensional. Houston's defense leads the NFL in rushing success rate and the Browns are 26th in yards per rush.
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Granted, Flacco torched the Texans. Yet, most of his yards went to Browns WR Amari Cooper who set a franchise record with 265 receiving yards. Houston has a talented secondary that's familiar with Flacco's "bombs away" style.
Lastly, the Texans play a ton of coin-flip games. I know because I've lost three Houston games this year by a half-point. The Texans have played in 10 one-score games including three games decided by two points. There's a chance Houston loses and still covers.