'Wrong Team Favored' For Minnesota Vikings At Chicago Bears In Week 6
The Chicago Bears (1-4) got off the mat last week by upsetting the Washington Commanders 40-20 on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, the Bears host the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Soldier Field Sunday.
Minnesota lost its Week 5 home game to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20. The Vikings sent WR Justin Jefferson, and reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year, to the IR after suffering a hamstring injury Sunday vs. the Chiefs.
Jefferson's injury is the 1st reason why I think there is value in the Bears +3 (-110) at PointsBet. Who on this Minnesota offense is Chicago afraid aside from Jefferson? In the 1st Vikings-Bears meeting last year, Jefferson caught 12 balls for 154 yards.
Chicago is getting healthier in the secondary. In Week 5, the Bears were missing two defensive back starters such as CB Jaylon Johnson and FS Eddie Jackson. Both are practicing this week and Pro Football Focus grades Johnson as a top-10 cornerback in football.
Vikings at Bears Week 6
Betting odds for the Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears in NFL Week 6 as of Thursday, Oct. 12th.
Essentially, there has been too much movement off of the preseason line. Minnesota was -1 when sportsbooks opened this game for betting in the summer. Sure, it's fair for the market to downgrade Chicago after its atrocious start.
But, why are the Bears downgraded 4 points against the Vikings from the preseason line? Each is 1-4 straight up and against the spread. I get that Minnesota has played a more difficult schedule thus far. Yet both are underperforming vs. the market's expectations.
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Also, maybe Bears QB Justin Fields was right during that press conference when saying he "wasn't necessarily playing my game". Chicago got crushed by the Chiefs the next week. However, Fields and the Bears have been balling since.
Over the past two weeks, Fields is completing 67.2% of his passes for 617 yards with 8/1 TD/INT and a 131.1 QB Rating. Fields is starting to get Bears No. 1 WR D.J. Moore more involved. Moore has 16 catches for 361 receiving yards and 4 TDs in the last two games.
Plus, Fields matches up well with Minnesota's defensive philosophy. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the league. If they don't get home on those blitzes then Fields will have wide-open running lanes and Moore will get 1-on-1 matchups vs. Minnesota's weak secondary.
Finally, the Vikings are bad in high-leverage situations. They rank 20th in both 3rd-down conversion and red zone TD rates. Minnesota's defense is 25th in 3rd-down conversion allowed and 29th in red zone TD.