Wrong Team Favored As Blue Jays Take On Giants

Blue Jays vs. Giants, 3:45 ET

I wrote about these two teams just a couple of days ago, and we were able to get a push in the game as I took the over 7 and the game landed right there. I suppose that might be a sign that I should lay off considering I got lucky, but I'm heading right back at them and going to risk that same unit here. Personally, I think I have a good read on this game, and I find it kind of interesting, so we will take a shot as the Blue Jays take on the Giants.

To recap some of my points about the Blue Jays from the other day, they are falling short of expectations, have virtually no shot at making a run for the division, and would have a tough time fighting past everyone in front of them for the Wild Card. They are only 42-50, which isn't terrible, but you have to expect that the front office would be thinking of selling rather than buying at the deadline. The second half of baseball still leaves a lot of games to be played, but are we going to believe that they are going to have some sort of miraculous turnaround? I just don't see it happening. Their hitting has improved over the season from a pretty poor start, but it hasn't been enough, and when you are in the toughest division in baseball, you need more. Today, Kevin Gausman takes the hill. He is a name that has floated around a bit during this hot stove season. He also should be familiar with pitching in San Francisco as his best season came in a Giants uniform. There are a few guys that have some eye-popping splits this season, and Gausman is one of them. At home, he has a 7.19 ERA over nine starts and 46.1 innings. On the road, he has a 2.31 ERA over nine starts and 50.2 innings. Not only is that almost five runs of difference, but overall he has allowed almost three times the runs at home as he has on the road (37 to 13). He has interesting Day/Night splits as well with his Day ERA at 3.89 and his Night ERA at 5.26. Giants hitters have been okay against him overall with 14 hits in 55 at-bats, but most of the work has been nothing special. 

Jun 17, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Jordan Hicks (12) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Giants are in a more questionable situation. The path for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs is murky and dark. The path for the Giants is a little more clearly defined. They also will likely be looking at a Wild Card berth in order to find a way into the playoffs. If the season ended today, they would not make the playoffs, but they are just 2.5 games back of the final spot. The only issue is that they are chasing the Padres and Diamondbacks who are both in front of them at the moment. Again, there is a lot of baseball to play, but I'm sure people would be more than happy to take some of the talent off of the Giants squad should they choose to end their season early. Today they combat the Blue Jays and Gausman with Jordan Hicks. For the year, Hicks has a 4-5 record and a 3.47 ERA. He also is sporting a 1.32 WHIP which makes me think his ERA probably should be a bit higher. Hicks doesn't have the drastic splits that Gausman has, but he is better during the day and at home. He has only had two games this season where he has allowed more than three earned runs. He did pitch for the Blue Jays last year, so the team should be familiar with his stuff, but he was a reliever last year, not a starter. Toronto hitters are 7-for-22 against him, but six of the seven hits have been singles. 

This game features two offenses that are struggling to score runs. It also features a young, solid pitcher in Hicks against a veteran in Gausman. I've been impressed with Gausman on the road and do think he will have an easier time navigating this lineup than Hicks will against the Blue Jays. This is a bit of a coinflip game, but I think the edge is with Toronto and will back them here at +100. 

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