'Wrong Team Favored': Bills At Jets Week 1 Best Bets
Week 1's Monday Night Football game is a banger. Aaron Rodgers makes his New York Jets debut when they host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
The Bills have won three straight AFC East crowns since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots in 2020. New York's defense was good enough to split the season series with Buffalo 1-1 last year and the Jets covered both meetings.
New York Jets LB C.J. Mosley tackling Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
They upset the Bills 20-17 on the road in Week 9, injuring Allen's throwing elbow in the process. The Jets were 6-3 entering their bye and finished 1-7 afterward. Buffalo got revenge on New York in Week 14 with a 20-12 win but the Jets covered as +10 underdogs.
New York had both NFL Rookies of the Year in 2022 — WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner — and a top-five defense in the league. The Jets' brass correctly believed they were a QB away from competing for a Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Week 1 odds (PointsBet)
One of the 2023 NFL future bets I placed while at Circa Sports in Las Vegas was the New York Jets +2000 to win the Super Bowl. Mostly because the Jets have a championship defense and they just need Rodgers to win a few coin-flip games.
My comp for New York's defense is the 2023 Legion of Boom. New York's secondary is the best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus graded Gardner the best cornerback in football last season. The Jets also have an elite 2nd CB D.J. Reed and slot CB (Michael Carter II).
Jets CB Sauce Gardner celebrates his interception vs. the Bills at MetLife Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
However, my favorite thing about New York's defense is its ability to pressure the QB without sending extra men. The Jets had the lowest blitz rate in the NFL last season but the 3rd-highest pressure rate.
The Jets shutdown the Bills' high-power attack last year. Two of Buffalo's three lowest scoring regular-season games in 2022 came against New York. Plus, the Jets gained more 1st downs than the Bills in both meetings last year.
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Even though Rodgers is a year removed from back-to-back NFL MVPs (2020-21), the Jets don't need MVP Rodgers to beat the Bills Monday. They just need a competent QB that won't turn the ball over.
New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers and head coach Robert Saleh leave the field in their game vs. the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. (Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports)
New York's biggest weakness is the offensive line. But, Bills pass rusher Von Miller is on the PUP list for the 1st four games of the season. Last year, Buffalo's pass rush fell off a cliff when Miller went out with an injury.
Finally, Rodgers' personal bests for completion rate and QB Rating are in primetime games. During the Rodgers era in Green Bay (2008-22), the Packers were 30-6 straight up in home primetime games and 24-10-2 against the spread.