Wolverines Will Ride Height And Home Court Advantage

Michigan State vs. Michigan, 8:00 ET

I only had one play in college hoops yesterday and was able to grab us a winner. I had three plays overall - one on hockey, one on spring training baseball (never again), and one on college basketball and went 2-1 for a profitable day. With the big dance right around the corner, it is time to lock in. While there is a big slate awaiting us tomorrow, I'm more excited about some of the games we get today. Specifically, I really like the matchup between Michigan State and Michigan. 

Michigan State comes into today's matchup with a 21-5 record and is sitting at 14th in the nation. Entering the season, they weren't one of the more hyped teams, but this Spartan squad has done virtually everything you can ask of them in order to keep moving up the ranks and opening some eyes for what will happen in March. They are currently just a half game behind tonight's opponent for the top spot in the Big 10. That won't really matter all that much for the Big 10 tournament as the teams don't really get home games, but obviously the one seed has a theoretically easier path than the two seed. There are also three teams with 11 wins and one with 10 in the conference so there is still a lot of chance to fall anywhere from first to fifth (or lower) going into the tournament. The Spartans started the season with an early loss to Kansas, and one a little bit later to Memphis. Both were on neutral courts, and neither loss was terrible, but they were both 8-point losses. Their three conference losses came against USC, UCLA, and recently at home to Indiana. Again, none of those losses were that bad. The three losses came by a combined 12 points. They've proved that they can win on the road in conference games, beating Minnesota, Ohio State, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Illinois. 

Dec 30, 2024; East Lansing, Michigan, USA;  The Michigan State Spartans bench reacts after a basket late in their game against the Western Michigan Broncos at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images

Michigan is putting together a very strong campaign after the dud of a season they had last year. It was barely December 2024, and they had already matched their win total from the previous season. They currently are ranked as the 12th best team in the country and carry a strong 20-5 record and 12-2 Big 10 conference record. The only two losses that they've had to conference opponents have come on the road as they dropped a game to Minnesota on the road in overtime, and were blown out by Purdue. I got that game wrong last weekend, and looking back on it, I should've realized that Michigan would take them down. The Wolverines have now run off six straight wins and have a good chance to make it until the end of the season before losing another game. They are led by their big men - two centers who are combining to average 28 points per game for the team. Most teams don't really have the height to deal with them. 

This is the first matchup between the two powerhouses, and the reality is whoever wins this game is likely to lose the next. Height is usually a good thing in basketball, but shooting can typically beat it. Athleticism can usually beat it as well. The problem is that shooting tends to go down as players go on the road and play in hostile environments. I think Michigan actually has the athleticism to match up with Michigan State. I'm going to back the Wolverines here to cover the short -2.5 spread. I would not be surprised to see this game go under the total either. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024