Wolfpack Could Upset Marquette On Friday

North Carolina State vs. Marquette, 7:00 ET, Friday

We move to the Friday slate as I am putting a play on all of the games in the Sweet 16. The goal, of course, is to go 8-0, but as long as I am profitable, I'll be happy. This will be a fun weekend as we get four games on Thursday, four on Friday, and two each on Saturday and Sunday. It is hard to believe how quickly we've gotten to this point. I suppose that isn't much of a surprise, it happens every year. However, this just seems to be flying by. For this game, we will focus on the lowest remaining seed #11 North Carolina State against one of the better teams, #2 Marquette. 

North Carolina State might be the hottest team in the entire country. I'd have to go look through every team in the tournament, and I'm sure they aren't the only one, but North Carolina State has beaten five straight tournament teams to get where they are round now. They took down Duke, Virginia (sure they were blown out in the first four, but would've been a 10-seed), and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament in consecutive games. Then in the NCAA Tournament, they won convincingly over Texas Tech and they outlasted Oakland. Against Texas Tech, the team essentially bullied their way to victory as they outscored their opponent 42-20 in points in the paint. It is hard to guard the Wolfpack front court as they have some big bodies that are good post players. What should be discouraging for Texas Tech is they didn't lose the turnover or rebounding battle, they just couldn't stop their opponent and allowed them to take 26 free throw attempts. Against Oakland, the teams both shot essentially the same from deep in terms of percentages, but Oakland nailed three more. The Wolfpack again led in paint points, but this time they did have a big rebounding edge. It was a tightly contested game for almost the entirety of it, but the Golden Grizzlies ran out of gas and North Carolina State escaped with a win. 

Marquette Golden Eagles PG Tyler Kolek controls the ball vs. the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers guard in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at Gainbridge FieldHouse in Indiana. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Marquette has rewarded me with a victory (by the way, North Carolina State and Oakland screwed me with overtime in their game) in my last play on them. I said the line was too low as they were 3.5 favorites over Colorado. I was wrong, and the line was right on as they ended the game winning by four points. Some people probably lost as I believe the line closed at -4.5, and honestly, I would've played that as well. In any case, that is to say that this game was a lot closer than I expected it to be. Marquette should have had a fairly easy run to this point, but they don't look great. They struggled against Western Kentucky in the first half of their first game before their defense stepped up and finished the game. Against Colorado, it was a tight matchup the entire time and any time it looked like they were getting breathing room, the lead shrunk. The good news is that Marquette should have the personnel to deal with the big bodies of North Carolina State. The bad news is that I'm not sure that they will effectively neutralize them and it will require help from the guards to double down, which leaves some shooters open for the Wolfpack.

This is one of those games that I'd normally take the home team. I feel like the matchup is closer than expected and would probably lean toward the home team just doing the right things in the comfort of their own gym. However, this is a neutral court game, so home floor doesn't exist. That led me to my next thought: Marquette is not playing a full 40 minutes of good basketball. North Carolina State could run out of gas, but I'll take the points with them (currently at +6.5). Back the Wolfpack to at least keep it close. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024