2024 WNBA Playoffs Takes Centerstage Tuesday: Best Bets For Dream At Liberty, Storm At Aces
Since the WNBA has a best-of-three format in the first round of its playoffs, it's do-or-die for two teams Tuesday. The 1-seed New York Liberty (1-0) host the 8-seed Atlanta Dream (0-1) in Game 2 at Barclays Center at 7:30 p.m. ET. Then, the 5-seed Seattle Storm (0-1) visit the 4-seed Las Vegas Aces (1-0) at Michelob ULTRA Arena for a 9:30 p.m. ET tip-off.
WNBA Playoff Betting Card: September 24
The odds are the best available at the time of publishing.
- OVER 156 (-112) in Liberty vs. Dream at DraftKings.
- STORM +8.5 (-120) over the Aces at BetMGM.
Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty (-12.5, O/U 156)
New York blasted Atlanta 83-69 in Game 1, barely covering as -13 favorites, and Dream-Liberty fell short of the 156.5-point total. Liberty forward Leonie Fiebich scored a game-best 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting (3-for-3 from behind the arc). New York held Atlanta's regular-season scoring leader, Rhyne Howard, to just 14 points on 35.7% shooting.
Four of the five Liberty-Dream meetings this season have gone Under, including three straight. However, in Game 1, these teams played at a 79.7 pace, which would tie for third in the WNBA during the regular season. "Pace" is the most important factor in handicapping totals because more possessions usually lead to more points.
New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart drives past Atlanta Dream forward Nia Coffey in Game 1 of the first round in the 2024 WNBA Playoffs at Barclays Center. (Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, Atlanta is desperate with its back against the wall, leading to a faster pace and more aggressiveness. The Dream will be crashing the glass on offense and gambling for steals on defense, which could equal more points off turnovers and second-chance points.
Finally, this season's first three Liberty-Dream games had totals within a 164-167 range. Atlanta shot an abysmal 18.8% from behind the arc in Game 1, well below its 30.8% season average from 3-point land. If the Dream hit two more threes in Game 1, they'd still only be shooting 31.3% from deep, but Over 156.5 would've cashed.
BET: OVER 156 in Liberty-Dream, up to 157.5.
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Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces (-8, O/U 159)
After losing the first Storm-Aces game during the 2024 regular season, Las Vegas has beaten Seattle four consecutive times, including a 78-67 win in Game 1. The Aces covered as -9.5 favorites but got lucky in doing so. Las Vegas out-scored Seattle 14-2 in the final frame to sneak through the front door.
The Storm were missing big Ezi Magbegor for Game 1, who was out with a concussion. Magbegor cleared concussion protocol and will suit up for Game 2. She has Seattle's second-best PER and a +5.8 on/off net rating. Magbegor is tied with fellow Storm big Nneka Ogwumike for the team's best defensive rating.
Also, Magbegor is the Storm's tallest player at 6-foot-4. She is the same height as Aces big, and three-time WNBA MVP, A'ja Wilson. Magbegor is a two-time All-Defensive player, and Seatte's leading rebounded and shot blocker. With Ogwumike and Magbegor both on the floor, the Storm will have an easier time defending Wilson Tuesday.
BET: Seattle Storm +8.5 (-120), down to +7.5
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