WM Phoenix Open 2024 Picks, One-And-Done
The People’s Open, aka, the Waste Management Phoenix Open 2024 is annually the most popular event on the PGA Tour calendar. The Phoenix Open's final round Sunday is the perfect betting appetizer for Super Bowl LVIII. Even though it’s no longer a "signature event," the excitement of the Phoenix Open still attracts a good field.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the reigning back-to-back Phoenix Open champion, headlines the field. Five of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings tee off this week. Other notables in the field include the 2023 U.S. Open Wyndham Clark, 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year, Brian Harman, and two-time major champion Justin Thomas.
(Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports)
TPC Scottsdale is the host course for the WM Phoenix Open. It's a Par-71 with firm and fast Overseed grass greens that measures 7,261 yards. It’s the 3rd-most predictive golf course on the PGA Tour behind Augusta National (Masters) and Waialae Country Club (Sony Open). There are several "risk-and-reward" holes at TPC Scottsdale, which is consistent for these TPC courses.
Clark won last week's rain-shortened 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the PGA Tour's 2nd "signature event" of the season. His pre-tournament odds were 100-to-1. All five winners on Tour this season had odds of at least +10000. My Pebble Beach betting card was toilet paper. I lost -4.66 units (u) last week, bringing my PGA Tour 2024 betting balance down to -18.71u after five events.
Heads up: I’m researching my PGA Tour 2024 bets from models built with the tools courtesy of BetTheNumberGolf.com from the Tour Junkies golf show and Pat Mayo’s FantasyNational.com. Also, be sure to check out my Twitter/X, @Geoffery_Clark, before the tournament tees off for last-minute bets.
My gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
WM Phoenix Open 2024 Picks
Wyndham Clark
This dude checks off the three most important boxes: Recent form, course history, and "win equity". Clark won last week's "signature event" and two last season, including the U.S. Open and Wells Fargo Championship. He was T10 at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open as well.
Clark was +7.6 Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G), +4.6 SG: Approach (APP), +4.1 SG: Around-the-Green (ARG), and +1.31 SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale in 2023. But, he was -1.0 SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) in last year's Phoenix Open and, aside from putting, driving is Clark's biggest strength.
(Steven Ryan - Getty Images)
Again, there are a lot of "risk-and-reward" holes at TPC Scottsdale and Clark has the ball-striking to conceive any shot possible. Over his last 80 rounds, Wyndham ranks 6th in this field in "Going for the Green Birdie-or-Better (BoB) rate". Clark ranks 12th in SG: Putting on Overseed greens over that span.
Finally, and I'm going to rehash this below, Clark is the 2023 U.S. Open champion, which was played at a comp course to TPC Scottsdale: Los Angeles Country Club's North course. If Wyndham can win the U.S. Open then he can win the 2024 WM Phoenix Open.
First thoroughbred for TPC Scottsdale: Wyndham Clark
- Win: +2800 at BetMGM (0.71u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +300 at BetMGM (0.57u to win 1.71u)
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Min Woo Lee
Lee is elite in two areas: Driving and short game. Over his last 24 rounds, Min Woo is gaining 16 yards per drive on the field OTT. His ball speed is 17 mph higher than the PGA Tour average (189-172 mph). Lee is +0.5 SG: ARG and +0.5 SG: Putting per round over that span. If he gets his irons right, Lee will win a PGA Tour event.
TPC Sawgrass hosts THE PLAYERS Championship and is a comp course to TPC Scottsdale. Lee was in the final group in Round 4 of THE PLAYERS 2023 with the eventual winner, Scheffler, despite being -7.1 SG: APP. He was +4.6 SG: OTT, +3.2 SG: ARG, and +7.7 SG: Putting at TPC Sawgrass last year.
(David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Lee finished T5 at the 2023 U.S. Open while gaining strokes T2G, OTT, ARG, APP, and Putting at the LA Country Club. Min Woo shot three rounds in the 60s at the U.S. Open. Lee is Australian, so he's familiar with "desert-style" golf. He won the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship on the DP World Tour in November 2023.
According to Fantasy National, Min Woo is 2nd in this field in both Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards and SG: Par 5, over the last 24 rounds on the PGA Tour with shot-link data. Since there are so many "risk-and-reward" holes at TPC Scottsdale, Scrambling is important and Lee leads the field in Scrambling over the last 24 rounds.
Second thoroughbred for TPC Scottsdale: Min Woo Lee
- Win: +3300 at BetMGM (0.61u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +320 at BetMGM (0.5u to win 1.6u)
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Joohyung ‘Tom’ Kim
Last year, Kim finished T50 in his 1st-career Phoenix Open start. Kim lost strokes with the driver and irons, which is rare because Tom is an accurate ball striker. However, I’m betting Kim plays better at TPC Scottsdale the 2nd time around. Plus, Tom was +3.2 SG: Putting at last year’s Phoenix Open, so he’s comfortable on these greens.
Also, Kim was +2500 last year in a much tougher field. The 2023 Phoenix Open was a "signature event." Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa were all in the field last year. Kim was playing better entering the 2023 Phoenix Open but not that much better. He won his 2nd consecutive Shriners Children’s Open in October 2023.
(Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports)
The Shriners Open is played at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, a crossover course to TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. Both are desert-style Par-71 courses that are easy to score on. Adding to that, Kim finished T8 at the 2023 U.S. Open while gaining 7.5 strokes with his irons and 3.3 strokes with his putter.
Ultimately, Kim has the OTT accuracy, precise iron play, and the spike putting to win vs. this watered-down field. Tom is priced below Cameron Young (+3500), Min Woo Lee (+3300), and Byeong-Hun An (+2800), none of whom have won a PGA Tour event. Whereas Kim has three career wins on Tour, and he’s only 21 years old.
Third thoroughbred for TPC Scottsdale: Joohyung ‘Tom’ Kim
- Win: +4000 at FanDuel (0.5u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +160 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.6u)
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Billy Horschel
It feels irresponsible to not have at least one bomb on my betting card given that 100-to-1 longshots have won all five PGA Tour events this season. With Horschel, I got a golfer who has true "win equity". He has eight professional wins in his career including seven on Tour.
Horschel has made the cut in nine straight seasons at the WM Phoenix Open with a T6 in 2022 and a T9 in 2020. He is one of the best putters on Tour and has picked up strokes with his driver in nine consecutive starts with shot-link data, according to DataGolf.com.
(Maddie Meyer - Getty Images)
We are "buying low" on Horschel since he's missed back-to-back cuts at the American Express and Farmers Insurance Open. But, Horschel randomly contends at events. He won the 2022 Memorial Tournament the year after shooting 13-over par. He missed the cut in his two starts before and after the 2022 Memorial as well.
Fourth thoroughbred for TPC Scottsdale: Billy Horschel
- Win: +15000 at FanDuel (0.13u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +333 at BetMGM (0.37u to win 1.23u)
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WM Phoenix Open 2024 'One-And-Done' Pick: Tom Kim
Through the 1st four events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm in a tie for 577th place out of 4,400 entries with $1,025,680 collected.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
I'm hoping this is a "leverage play" against my One-And-Done field. Meaning, I think Tom Kim won't be a popular choice for the WM Phoenix Open because he finished T50 last year. Golfers with good course history at TPC Scottsdale are usually atop the Phoenix Open leaderboards. "APP" is the most predictive stat in golf betting and Kim was 10th in SG: APP on the PGA Tour last season.
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