Winners For All 3 NBA 2023 Playoffs Games On Wednesday
I don't want to talk about what happened Tuesday to my NBA "best bets". Actually, it's fine. I went 1-3 Tuesday after a 3-0 Monday. As per usual, I ran my mouth on OutKick and Twitter about my winning Monday and got humbled.
Whatever. I'll get it back. I've talked myself into betting all three NBA Game 2s Wednesday: Lakers-Grizzlies, Heat-Bucks, and Timberwolves-Bucks.
7-seed Los Angeles Lakers (1-0) at 2-seed Memphis Grizzlies (0-1), 7:30 p.m. ET
Betting odds for the Lakers-Grizzlies Game 2 at DraftKings.
LAL blew past Memphis in the 2nd-half of its 128-112 Game 1 victory. The Lakers were propelled by offensive eruptions from backup big PF Rui Hachimura and un-drafted combo guard Austin Reaves.
The Grizzlies lost All-Star PG Ja Morant in the 2nd-half to an injured wrist after he collided with Anthony Davis while attacking the basket.
These reasons plus the zig-zag theory are why the presumed sharp money is on the Under 226. However, I'm going to join the suckers and ...
BET OVER 226 (-110) in Lakers-Grizzlies Game 2.
Outside of Grizzlies 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. and Davis, neither defense is scary. One of Jackson's few defensive faults is getting into foul trouble.
Well, the Lakers attack the rim at one of the highest rates in the NBA and they are 3rd in offensive free-throw attempt rate. If Jackson is off the floor, Memphis's defense is going to get bullied.
A similar point can be made about LAL's defense sans Davis. Granted, AD doesn't get into foul trouble like Jackson does. All this pro-Over money in the market suggests both defenses are good.
Lakers big Anthony Davis and Grizzlies big Jaren Jackson Jr. during Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Western Conference 1st-Round Playoffs at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Also, if Morant is out Wednesday, I could see the Grizzlies being tougher to defend because there should be more ball movement. When Ja is out there it's obvious who Memphis's offense runs through.
Morant's backup, PG Tyus Jones, brings more to the table offensively. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Grizzlies effective field goal shooting (eFG%) improves by 1.7% when Jones is on the floor.
They allow 5.8 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Jones is in the game and Memphis's defensive eFG% worsens by 2.9%, per CTG. Jones ranks in the 11th-percentile of point guards in on/off defensive rating and 8th-percentile in on/off defensive eFG%.
Finally, the Lakers-Grizzlies series has the 3rd-fastest pace in the 2023 NBA playoffs and three of the four quarters in their Game 1 meeting trended Over the total.
NBA Bet #1: OVER 226 (-110) in Lakers-Grizzlies at DraftKings
Odds for the Over in Game 2 of the Lakers-Grizzlies in the 2023 NBA playoffs from DraftKings as of 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 19th.
8-seed Miami Heat (1-0) at 1-seed Milwaukee Bucks (0-1), 9 p.m. ET
Betting odds for Heat-Bucks Game 2 in the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference playoffs from DraftKings.
Miami dump-trucked Milwaukee 130-117 in Game 1 thanks to an awesome shooting performance. Giannis Antetokounmpo exited Game 1 in the 1st-half with a back injury and is "questionable" for Game 2.
The Heat experienced an important injury themselves when Tyler Herro broke his hand. Herro will be out for the playoffs and there's an outside chance he returns if Miami makes the NBA Finals.
Per CTG, Herro leads the Heat in on/off net rating at +7.7. Herro is Miami's only reliable offensive option aside from Jimmy Butler and Herro was playing well before getting injured.
History says Milwaukee will bounce-back after its embarrassing Game 1 loss at home ...
Giannis' Robin — wing Khris Middleton — has a subpar season but looked amazing in Game 1. Middleton scored 33 points on 60.0% shooting Sunday, which gives me confidence he can step up if Giannis is out Wednesday.
While I was writing this Giannis went from "doubtful" to "questionable" and the line moved from Bucks -6.5 to -8. Giannis knows this is a must-win for Milwaukee who will "right the ship".
Bucks wing Khris Middleton is defended by Heat PG Gabe Vincent during Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference 1st-Round Playoffs at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
The Bucks were 11-of-45 from behind the arc in Game 1 and they almost can't shoot that bad again. Milwaukee PF Bobby Portis, C Brook Lopez, PG Jevon Carter and wing Jae Crowder were a combined 0-for-14 from 3 in Game 1.
Conversely, I don't think Miami's 3-point shooting is sustainable. The Heat were 27th in 3-point percentage during the regular season and were tied with the 2nd-worst wide-open 3-point-attempt rate in the NBA.
NBA Bet #2: Bucks -8 (-110) at DraftKings
The Milwaukee Bucks' odds vs. the Miami Heat in Game 2 from DraftKings.
8-seed Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) at 1-seed Denver Nuggets (1-0), 10 p.m. ET
Betting odds for the Timberwolves-Nuggets Game 2 at DraftKings.
I got some egg on my face when I took the points with the Timberwolves in Game 1 and the Nuggets boat-raced them 109-80. However, I've come to my senses and think Denver dismantles Minnesota in this series.
T-Wolves big Rudy Gobert is useless offensively and isn't good enough defensively to contain Nikola Jokic. In fact, Jokic played 28 minutes, scored just 14 points and the Nuggets still beat the brakes off the Timberwolves.
The Nuggets are just 2-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. the T-Wolves this season, including the playoffs. But, Denver's three ATS losses to Minnesota came when the Nuggets were on the 2nd of a back-to-back.
Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert defends Nuggets C Nikola Jokic during Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)
When Denver is playing on 2-3 days rest, the Timberwolves are 9-4-1 ATS with a +9.7 margin of victory and +3.8 ATS margin. Also, neither team has bad benches but the Nuggets' starting 5 is so much better.
Per CTG, Jokic has a +24.8 adjusted on/off rating, Denver SF Aaron Gordon is +19.3 and SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is +17.3. All three rank in the 100th-percentile for their respective positions.
Ultimately, Denver has a lot more fire-power than Minnesota and the Nuggets have the edge in shooting, rebounding and getting to the charity stripe.
NBA Bet #3: Nuggets -8 (-115) at DraftKings
The Denver Nuggets' odds vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 2 from DraftKings.
Check out NBA Hoops At Lunch basketball betting show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed for the audio versions of the handicaps below.