Williams Will Lead Nationals To First Five Lead

Mets vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

It was nice to get back on the winning side of things yesterday. It hasn't been all clouds and rainfall for me over the last week, but it was by far the worst week of my season so far. These things will happen and you have to weather the storm. If I look at the positive, there was a +230 winner, there were days where we went 1-1, and some right reads but wrong results. Yesterday was a 2-0 day and felt great that I was able to get back on track. Again, these things are going to happen to us periodically, which is why money management is so important. I'm hoping for another 2-0 day as the Mets take on the Nationals. 

If you looked ahead at this game at the beginning of the season, there would have to be some optimism that this would be a series that saw the Mets above .500 and at least relevant within the division. Well, folks, that's why we play the games because neither of those things are true. In a frustrating stretch of the past two seasons, the Mets are once again looking like they will be sellers at the deadline and spend another offseason wondering how to make the club relevant again. Out of respect for their offense, it really isn't playing all that poorly. In fact, it is playing more like a .500 club than one that is ten games under. Their team batting average is .238 which isn't terrible, and their around the middle of the pack with runs scored this season. Is pitching the sole issue with the team? Not quite, but they haven't been very good. For example, the club has a 4.28 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP which is on the higher side of things. The opponent batting average is .236, which, to me, indicates that they are either giving up a lot of extra bases, or when they do give up hits, runners are scoring. This would also make sense because the Mets have allowed more walks than any other team in baseball. Tonight, David Peterson takes the mound for them. He has only made one start this season, allowing just one walk, seven hits, and two earned runs over five innings. Nationals hitters probably are licking their chops as they are hitting .396 against him. 

May 29, 2024; New York City, New York, USA;  New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson (23) pitches in the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Again, if you looked ahead and saw the offseason moves, the trend of the franchise, and just the overall landscape of the NL East at the beginning of the year, you'd probably have expected the Nationals to be looking at a fifth, maybe fourth, place finish. They are currently five games under .500 and in third place. Not a bad spot to be in for the start of June. I also expect them to likely be sellers at the deadline, but maybe the team will be confident they can make a push for a Wild Card spot and either stand pat or try to add to their squad. The Nationals are worse offensively than the Mets with about 40 fewer hits and 20 fewer runs scored. Even the pitching isn't that much better for Washington. They have a 3.91 team ERA and opponents are hitting .253 against them. The difference may be that they've allowed 70 fewer walks. Today, they start Trevor Williams. Williams has quietly put together a very strong campaign for the Nationals. He has a 2.22 ERA for the year and was great in May, going 30 innings and allowing just six earned runs, good for a 1.80 ERA. He doesn't go overly deep into games as he has completed six innings just once this season, but he also has allowed two or more earned runs just three times in 11 starts this year. Mets hitters have been pretty decent against Williams in the past, going 23-for-86, good for a .267 batting average. 

I think this isn't the best spot for a total because we have two pitchers who have shown the opponent can hit them based on past games. It wouldn't shock me to see over 9 runs in this game, but I also could see the game being rather low-scoring with Williams on the hill. I think the best approach here is to take the Nationals through five innings. I think Williams is a better pitcher than Peterson, and the track record of the Nationals hitters against him is encouraging for this play. Let's take the Nationals through five at -110. 

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