Will Offense Or Defense Prevail In Texas Tech Vs. Houston?

Texas Tech vs. Houston, 9:00 ET

College hoops have been solid, but lately, I've been in a bit of a 1-1 stretch where we are getting juiced into losing the money that we've made throughout the season to this point. Last night I once again went 1-1 and the losses tend to stick with me longer than the wins. The loss last night was taking Indiana at home against a better Purdue team. Purdue blew them out and ultimately it was the wrong read on the game. I'm hoping to avoid another wrong read in a game between Texas Tech and Houston.

Texas Tech comes into tonight's matchup as the 25th-best team in the country. They are sitting at 14-2 for the season and have already won three conference games to begin the year. The two losses from the Red Raiders this season were against Villanova and Butler. Against Villanova, they were somewhat overmatched and lost by 16. Somehow that game felt closer and further apart than the final score indicates all at the same time. The game against Butler was an intense battle that saw them go to overtime before they lost by eight. It was a very high-scoring game as the teams combined to put up 32 points in the extra time. What I like about Texas Tech is they can get into shootouts and hang with their opponent, but they can also grind out victories like they did in their most recent win against Kansas State, a 60-59 victory. The team is pretty balanced as well considering they have six players that are averaging nine or more points per game. Their team isn't great from deep, but they have a few threats at least that keep opponents honest. Tonight they are putting a nine-game winning streak on the line and have to find a way to stop a talented, but slumping Houston team.

BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA - MARCH 16: Head coach Kelvin Sampson of the Houston Cougars coaches Jamal Shead #1 during the second half against the Northern Kentucky Norse in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Legacy Arena at the BJCC on March 16, 2023 in Birmingham, Alabama. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

In years past, it seemed like Houston was more known as an offensive team. This season, they are holding teams to just 51.4 points per game. To further amplify that, they are also blocking almost six shots per game and stealing the ball almost 11 times per game. This is a defense that can lock down opponents, and even in their two most recent games, both losses, they held opponents to just 68 and 57 points. The problem is their offense disappeared and they only scored 67 and 53 points, respectively in those games. Houston is led by a trio of guards that can beat you off the dribble, and are also decent enough from behind the line that you need to respect them. In terms of scoring, they may not be overly deep. However, their team has eight guys that average over 15 minutes on the court and another two that average 11 or more each game. That's a lot of action for their team. It helps keep the fresh legs and allows for that defensive edge, the problem is that it rarely leads to many players getting into a rhythm.

Tonight should be an interesting game and something about it really concerns me. I don't think that Houston should be a 12.5 favorite in this game. They are coming off of a loss, they are at home, and they are probably the more complete team. I just don't see where the disparity of that much comes into play. However, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. Maybe I think it is a trap, I really don't know what it is. I'll take the over 129.5 instead. I think both of these teams can clamp down on defense, but I expect offense to flow a little more in this one and we are only looking for them to score about 10 to 12 points less than their offensive averages.

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