Why Not Bet A Couple Of NBA Games Saturday?
Honestly, I'm bored and feel like adding two NBA wagers to my NFL Divisional Round betting card for Saturday. In fact, it's kind of a sports-betting equinox for me. I'm sweating The American Express (golf tournament) so it just feels right to bet some basketball.
NBA Saturday Best Bets
Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Atlanta PG Trae Young is "questionable" to miss his secnd consecutive game Saturday. If I knew Trae was playing, I'd put two units on the Cavs. Young is one of my least favorite NBA players because of his flopping and lack of off-ball movement. In fact, Trae has a -4.4 non-garbage time on/off net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
However, Cleveland is on a roll lately and is well rested. The Cavs are on a 6-game winning streak. This is just their fourth game in the last nine days because they played the Brooklyn Nets in Paris Jan. 11. But, Cleveland leads the NBA in adjusted net rating over the past two weeks, per CTG.
Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell dribbles around Atlanta Hawks PG Trae Young at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (David Richard-USA TODAY Sports)
The Cavaliers won their first two meetings with the Hawks this season, both in Cleveland. In those games, Cavs All-Star Donovan Mitchell is averaging 31 points, 8 rebound, and 9 assists with a +19 net rating. The Hawks don't have an answer for Mitchell essentially. And they won't Saturday either.
Finally, Atlanta is on the second leg of a back-to-back while Cleveland is playing after two days rest. The Hawks are 2-5 straight up (SU) and 1-6 against the spread (ATS) on zero days rest this season. They are 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS with a rest disadvantage as well.
My prediction: Cavaliers 120, Hawks 111
Oklahoma City Thunder (+3) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
I've flip-flopped on this matchup since this morning. Initially, I preferred Minnesota's size and defense. But, now, I'm going with the Thunder's hot shooting and ball handling. OKC has the best true shooting percentage in the NBA, rank sixth in offensive turnover rate (TOV%), and third in defensive TOV%.
Furthermore, the Thunder are getting much better looks from behind the arc. Over the last six games, Oklahoma City is getting 9.3 more wide-open threes per game than the T-Wolves (26.3-17.0). "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey shoots a floater over Timberwolves big Rudy Gobert during an NBA In-Season Tournament game at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
Nowadays the 3-pointer is the most important thing in basketball. It sucks and it randomizes the game but "it is what it is". We've seen teams space the floor and use Timberwolves big Rudy Gobert's size against him. Most of OKC's players can handle the ball and shoot threes.
This spread is suspiciously low since the T-Wolves are 17-2 SU at home this season with a +10.3 scoring margin. Lastly, they are 6-4 SU over the last 10 games but the only impressive win was the LA Clippers. Otherwise, Minnesota lost to the Celtics, Mavs, Pelicans, and Knicks over that span.