Who Cares About NFL Sunday? Place These NBA Bets Instead

The NFL is awesome. I'm just kidding. In fact, I'm definitely betting more money on Week 8 than this crappy basketball Sunday slate. To its credit, the NBA knows everyone will be watching NFL Sunday. That's why the Association only scheduled six games to tip-off and none of them are all that exciting.

However, basketball is my favorite sport *ducks* and I bet the NBA literally every day. It's gross how often I gamble on NBA games not even knowing who's going to play. The random "load management" absences cost me several units in 2022-23. But, I'm off to a nice start this season.

NBA Sunday Best Bets

UNDER 238.5 in Hawks-Bucks, 7 p.m. ET tip-off

Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs so we have the fade recency bias angle. Atlanta combined for 246 points with the New York Knicks on Friday in a 126-120 loss. The Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers total 235 points in Milwaukee’s 118-117 win Thursday.

Furthermore, Hawks-Bucks opened with a 226-point total and nearly 80% of the cash is on the Over, per Pregame.com. So we have the fade the public angle as well. Granted, the public action in the NBA means less on an NFL Sunday.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is defended by Atlanta Hawks big Onyeka Okongwu at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Also, the average total in their last seven meetings is 228.5. Over that span, they are 3-4 Over/Under (O/U) in those games while averaging a combined 227.6 points. This Hawks-Bucks game Sunday has the highest total of the NBA season thus far.

Perhaps I'm a sucker for betting Under on the highest total on the board. Or maybe this is an overreaction to Damian Lillard's Bucks debut. Dame Time scored a game-high 39 points and went 17-for-17 at the foul line.

But, Lillard and Hawks PG Trae Young are streaky bad-shot makers that like to operate in the half-court. If this turns into a point guard duel, both teams' offenses could slow down. Longer possessions ending with contested, difficult shots is great for Unders.

Finally, Atlanta's offense struggles on the road. The Hawks scored 2.4 fewer points per game on the road compared to at home last season. They scored just 115 in Charlotte on Wednesday and the Hawks-Hornets went Under the 235.5-point total.

My prediction: Bucks 119, Hawks 105

Bet 1.1 units on the UNDER 238.5 in Hawks-Bucks on NBA Sunday (1 unit = $10).

Portland Trail Blazers (+9.5) at Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 p.m. ET

As of 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday morning, the Sixers have NOT submitted an injury report. There's an outside chance James Harden returns since he was only officially announced out for the first two games.

Personally, I can't imagine Harden plays Sunday but it's the NBA so who knows. More importantly, there's a better chance that Joel Embiid, last season's paper champion MVP, also misses Sunday.

The 76ers are on the second of a back-to-back (B2B) after beating the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. NBA stars have picked up right where they left off last season with "load management". Philly played 13 B2Bs last season and Embiid suited up for eight of them.

That said, it's the Sixers' home opener and I say there's a 75% chance Embiid plays Sunday. Even if he does, the Trail Blazers can still cover Sunday. Portland has two bigs to throw at Embiid in Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III.

Sixers big Joel Embiid celebrates scoring on the Toronto Raptors at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

Ayton and Williams play contrasting styles. Williams is one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. Whereas Ayton is a score-1st big. One challenges Embiid on offense and the other makes him work defensively.

Plus, the Raptors are a physical team that can drain energy from their opponents. Embiid got winded against the Bucks in Philadelphia's season opener. It wouldn't be shocking if Embiid still needs to play himself into shape.

Finally, even though three-fourths of the action is on the Sixers, according to Pregame.com the market is moving toward the Trail Blazers. After opening as +10.5 point underdogs, Portland is down to +9.5. That tells me someone sharp thinks the Blazers can cover Sunday.

My prediction: Sixers 110, Trail Blazers 105

Bet 1.1 units on the Trail Blazers +9.5 (-110) at the 76ers on NBA Sunday (1 unit = $10).