Which Bills Team Shows Up Tonight?

Buccaneers vs. Bills, 8:15 ET

The NFL is back with the kickoff of Week 8 tonight as the Buccaneers take on the Bills. This should be a fairly exciting matchup between one team that may be overperforming and one that may be underperforming. Nonetheless, it really doesn't matter what they've done, because just like in sports betting we only care about how you do today. And, luckily, I have found a bet that I like for tonight's Thursday Night Football game.

The Buccaneers are 3-3 which is better than I expected them to be a third of the way through their season. I don't really think it is much of a secret how they got here - their defense has been very strong, specifically their run defense. Last week, they had to face Bijon Robinson, but he had one rush and then nothing else. There still doesn't seem to be a great explanation for that. Anyway, they are only allowing 95.8 yards per game on the ground and they've faced some pretty run-heavy teams and run-oriented quarterbacks. The problem, and this is not much of a surprise, is that their offense isn't getting much going. They are gaining a pathetic 77.8 yards per game on the ground, and only 227.2 passing yards per game. The Buccaneers have weapons, so that isn't the issue. I may not like him much, but Baker Mayfield is playing decently overall. If they can find a way to protect him and give him a bit more time, Mayfield may be able to find Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for some bigger gains. The offense stalls out too much and in a game against a team that can be explosive like the Bills, you can't be stagnant.

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 15: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass during the third quarter of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions at Raymond James Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

The Bills are the team that I leaned toward or picked, whatever you want to call it, for winning the Super Bowl. We are heading into their eighth game, and I'm a bit nervous if we are being honest. Josh Allen seems more prone to bonehead throws than normal, Stefon Diggs is playing great, but there has been a bit of drama with him. Buffalo's run game isn't something I would call impressive, and their defense is a bit inconsistent right now. They've lost two of their past three games, and I was willing to give them a pass for the loss to Jacksonville in London, but I don't think I can give a pass for last week against New England. I don't know if they were toying with the Patriots and it came back to bite them in the butt or what happened. They were down 10-0 at the end of a quarter and 22-10 about halfway through the fourth. Then they started playing and they scored two touchdowns and a 2-point conversion. They were up 25-22. Mac Jones led a game-winning drive and the Bills lost. But, for three quarters they looked like the worse team, and they seem almost disinterested. I have to imagine that tonight they will be locked in at home, and looking to avenge the embarrassing loss to one of the worst teams in the league and a division rival. The Bucs defense can be beaten, but they should be respected enough that you can't just assume the Bills walk all over them.

The Bills are a bit difficult to bet on because of the inconsistent play. Again, I'll throw out the Jacksonville game, but one week they can put up 37 points on a team and another hold a historic offense to 20 points. Other weeks they have to fight and claw for every yard and make it difficult on themselves. Tonight should be a bit easier, but I don't expect this to be a high scoring game. The Buccaneers don't have a very good offense, and their defense should at least make the game somewhat difficult for the Bills. I'll take the under 43.5 in the game, and I do lean toward the Bills covering the -9.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024