Wheeler And Phillies Will Roll Over Marlins

Marlins vs. Phillies, 6:45 ET

I was thinking about something with baseball recently. Teams essentially play from the end of March until October. We will call it April until November with playoffs and not much happening in March. That puts us at 214ish days that we have for baseball. I usually put out two plays per day, sometimes more, sometimes less. That means I'm betting roughly 400 baseball games per year. I'm worried about a small losing streak right now? Why? I'll get it back and it starts here with the Marlins taking on the Phillies. 

The Marlins are one of those teams that you probably dismiss right away because their franchise is such a joke. The ownership seems to want them to lose as much as possible and doesn't look to invest in anything or anyone. Still, the team is off to at least an acceptable start to the season. They aren't great by any means, but at least they are playing fairly competitively to start the season. I am guessing this will be a pretty long year for the team as they need to improve in multiple areas, but maybe they can get some good performances and at least make a run at a Wild Card berth. All of that will be a challenge, but one thing they have going for them is that Sandy Alcantar is back. He is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA through three starts this year, but his WHIP is just 1.17 so that ERA should come down. He has allowed runs in each game, but is also working his way back from missing all of last season. The bad news is that Phillies hitters are very good against him. He is allowing them to hit .299 against him. 

Sep 3, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA;  Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies are pretty much the exact opposite of the Marlins. They have seen success in virtually every season for like 20 years. I know I am exaggerating, but the franchise has clearly invested in players and fielded winning clubs more often than not. Philadelphia has a lineup of mashers, and just good overall hitters. Their defense is solid enough, and they seem to play the game the right way. Their pitching staff isn't the best in the league, but they have quality arms that keep them in games. One of which is the annual Cy Young candidate, Zack Wheeler. Wheeler rolls out to the mound today for his fifth start of the season. He has gone 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The concern for him is that he has allowed a home run in every game this season. His first two starts were quality starts, and then his past two were a little rough, allowing nine earned runs in 11.1 innings. Wheeler hasn't been extraordinary against the Marlins, but he's only allowed two extra base hits of the 11 hits off of him in 39 at-bats. 

The totals have been a bit elusive to me, but I would be surprised to see Miami rack up runs in this game. I think the smartest thing to do in this one is to take the Phillies on the run line. If you can get a reasonable price on the moneyline, take it. Alcantara isn't the same Cy Young winning pitcher he was - at least not yet. Back the Phillies here.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024