Wheeler Will Continue To Deal Against Broken Braves

Phillies vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

When the schedule first came out, I'm sure most people had this circled as a series that could potentially make or break one team's quest for the NL East division crown. At this point, that is no longer the case - the division isn't locked up, but it is highly unlikely that there is much change at the top of the division. Still, even without the drama being quite as intense, this is always a series to look forward to as it is still a great rivalry. We also get some good pitchers on the hill as the Phillies take on the Braves tonight. 

The Phillies are in control of their own destiny and the biggest question now is if they will get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but specifically the National League. Right now they have the second-most wins in the league (73) behind the Dodgers (74), and just a game ahead of the Brewers (72). I would say that it doesn't matter, but if you look at their records, the Phillies are almost 20 games over .500 at home, but just three games above on the road. I do think that the Phillies are one of the more complete teams. The hitting has been strong, the pitching staff is solid with two aces, and potentially even a third depending on how you view Ranger Sanchez. One of their aces gets the nod today to try and take down the Braves. Zack Wheeler gets the ball and takes it with his 12-5 record, 2.72 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP. He is seventh in wins, third in ERA, fourth in WHIP, and even tied for ninth in strikeouts. He is making a strong case for the Cy Young award, with his biggest competition being the Braves left-hander, Chris Sale. In June and July, Wheeler's ERA wasn't overly pretty but that was the result of one bad game in each month. He was rocked by the Yankees and Orioles and allowed 15 earned runs in two games. That accounts for a third of the earned runs he has allowed this season. He has faced the Braves once this season, it was back in March. He went six scoreless innings allowing no walks, five hits, and striking out five hitters.

May 31, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez (40) pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves were dealt yet another blow to the roster. They have been without Spencer Strider all season. Then they lost Ronald Acuna Jr. Recently, Ozzie Albies went onto the injured list. Now, Austin Riley, the Braves third baseman, is out for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. I've said this before and will repeat it here: teams aren't going to feel bad for the Braves. All teams go through a ton of issues and injuries during the course of the season, but the Braves have experienced more than their fair share this year, and a lot of them going toward key players. Still, they find themselves with a shot at the playoffs, now fighting off the Mets more than the Phillies, but still looking to make due with whatever healthy players they can field. Tonight, they have Reynaldo Lopez taking the mound. Lopez has put together a stellar season of his own, even though he doesn't quite qualify for the league lead in ERA due to innings, he is at 2.06 for the year. He also has a 1.19 WHIP. At home, he has been great with a 1.74 ERA over 57 innings. This will be his first August start after leaving early in a late July game, so we will have to see what type of form he comes back with. He did pitch very well against the Phillies; this was the only time he faced them this season, going six scoreless innings and allowing two hits and three walks. 

In this game I think we need to make an assumption that even if Lopez comes back and pitches as well as he was prior to the injury, he probably won't go very deep into the game. If the Braves get five innings out of him, they should consider themselves lucky. The problem is, even if he pitches well, the Braves hitters still have to face Wheeler. I can't see Atlanta winning this game. I'm going to back Philly to win this on the run like as I'd rather pay for the extra run in this case at +114 rather than take them on the money line. 

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