WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 2023 Post-Round 1 Bets
Originally, my plan was to sit out the PGA Tour's 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, which teed off Wednesday, March 22nd at the Austin Country Club in Texas.
After watching Round 1 of the group stage, I'm ready to parachute into Match Play. Also, I couldn't help myself and placed some last-minute Match Play bets that won't be counted in my OutKick record.
Before we get into the WGC-Dell Match Play wagers, let's address the elephant in the room, which is my betting coldstreak. The Valspar Championship 2023 was my 5th straight losing event.
It was the 1st time my entire bet slip bricked. My 2022-23 PGA Tour balance fell to +2.68 units (u) after a -7.7u performance. I'm still up on the season because I've hit four outrights and the grading of my Valspar action is at the bottom.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 2023 Action
Hideki Matsuyama Outright (+4000)
In Round 1, Matsuyama beat the only golfer in his group with previous Match Play success: Kevin Kisner. The other golfers in Matsuyama's group are Max Homa and Justin Suh.
Kisner has a career 22-6-1 record in Austin CC match play, won the 2019 Match Play and lost in the final last year to Scottie Scheffler. Homa is 3-3 and Suh is a PGA Tour rookie making his 1st Match Play start.
Austin CC has the 4th-most bunkers out of the 46 tracks played on the PGA Tour 2022-23 season. Over his last 50 rounds, Matsuyama is 1st in Scrambling and 4th in Sand Saves.
Hideki Matsuyama lines up his birdie putt on 18 during Round 1 of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club in Texas. (Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Outside of putting, which Matsuyama sucks at, the most important stat to Match Play is Scrambling. A- it's tough to hit birdie putts and B- it's tough to beat a golfer who can overcome bad tee or approach shots.
I'm not going to lie, a major reason why I'm riding with Matsuyama is because he's been the only golfer to make me money over the past five events.
Matsuyama had that look in his eye in the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2023 on Sunday, March 12th. He finished 5th at 9-under and was up to 12-under before giving some back.
If Matsuyama's final round performance at THE PLAYERS is his current form, we are getting a major champion at an awesome price.
BET: Hideki Matsuyama to win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (0.25u: +4000, to win 10u)
Min Woo Lee > Matthew Fitzpatrick, 2:45 p.m. ET
Lee (-105) is only a slight underdog to Fitzpatrick (-120) despite never winning a PGA Tour event and not even having full PGA Tour status yet. Fitzpatrick is the reigning U.S. Open champion but doesn't look healthy.
It's been well-reported that Fitzpatrick is dealing a nagging neck injury. He has missed the cut in back-to-back starts and in four of his last six events.
Lee has finished T13 or better in his last eight DP World Tour starts with five finishes of T4 or better. He also played in the final group at THE PLAYERS earlier this month and placed T6.
Min Woo Lee his shot from the 6th tee during day one of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club in Austin. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Fitzpatrick's woes continued in his Round 1 loss to J.J. Spaun. Fitzpatrick lost to Spaun by five strokes and the match ended at the 15th hole. Plus Fitzpatrick has a career 7-10 Match Play record at Austin CC.
Lee eked past Sahith Theegala by one stroke but played well in order to do so. Per Betsperts' Ron Klos, Lee was 13th in total strokes gained (SG) in Round 1 at +2.2 SG and Fitzpatrick was 33rd at -0.3 SG.
BET: Min Woo Lee to beat Matthew Fitzpatrick in Round 2 of WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (1u: -105)
Tom Hoge > Cameron Davis, 3:17 p.m. ET
Both golfers lost their Round 1 matches but Hoge had a +0.7 SG and Davis was -0.5 SG. More importantly, Hoge grades out much higher than Davis in my key stats model and is trending better.
Hoge is 1st in this field for SG: Approach, 12th in Good Drives gained, and 18th in Par 4 scoring. Davis is 24th in SG: Approach, 59th in Good Drives gained, and 51st in Par 4 scoring.
Tom Hoge putts on the 9th green during day one of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club in Austin. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Davis is 53rd for total SG over the last 24 rounds and Hoge is 27th. Hoge finished 3rd at THE PLAYERS and 14th at the Genesis Invitational last month. Davis was 6th at THE PLAYERS but missed five straight cuts entering that event.