Wells Fargo Championship 2024 Picks To Win, Finishing Positions, One-And-Done
Wyndham Clark officially arrived on the scene with a win at last year's Wells Fargo Championship. It was Clark's 1st career PGA TOUR win, then he went on to win the 2023 U.S. Open a month later. Now, Clark is one of the best players on TOUR entering the 2024 Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Wells Fargo is one of the TOUR's five "signature events" with no cut.
There is a $20 million prize pool and the winner walks away with $3.6 million. Quail Hollow is the perfect tune-up for next week's PGA Championship. It was the course used for the 2017 PGA Championship and will host next year's PGA Championship. Mercifully, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is taking this week off, like my original pick to win the 2024 Wells Fargo, Ludvig Åberg.
Hopefully, Scheffler's absence helps me pick up a much-needed win this week. I bonked off 3.19 units (u) at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson last week, bringing my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll down to -40.81u. I don't know if I'm brave, stupid or both. But, let's dive into my betting card for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. (Only make "finishing position" bets at BetMGM since it doesn't apply "dead heat" rules).
Wells Fargo Championship 2024 Betting Card
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies and the PGA Tour.
Outright Bets
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 12:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, May 7th.
Sahith Theegala (+2800)
Sahith is due for a win in a "big-boy" event. Theegala won the 2023 Fortinet Championship in the FedExCup Fall season and has five top 10s this year. Those include second at The Sentry, fifth at the WM Phoenix Open, T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and second at the RBC Heritage. Four were "signature events" on the TOUR this season and the Phoenix Open was an "elevated event" last year.
Theegala performs well in "signature events" because he is good throughout the bag. His chipping stats are subpar this year, but Theegala is 9th on TOUR in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting. He ranked 22nd on TOUR in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) in 2022-23 and I expect Sahith to improve ARG eventually this year.
Sahith Theegala hits a chip shot on the 14th hole in Round 3 of the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Regardless, he is 10th in Ball Striking this season, so Theegala might be putting instead of chipping at Quail Hollow. The TOUR blends greens-in-regulation rate with Total Driving to produce its ball-striking stats. Over the last 40 rounds, Sahith is 9th in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) and 16th in SG: Approach (APP), according to Bet The Number.
Theegala has these odds at Quail Hollow because he has no marquee wins on his resume and finished T56 last year in the Wells Fargo. But, Sahith is only 26-years-old and Quail Hollow is one of the toughest courses on TOUR, so the experience will help him. My "buy price" for Theegala to break through at the Wells Fargo is +2500. I’ll happily bet him at +2800.
BET 0.75u on Sahith Theegala to win 21u at DraftKings (+2800).
- Add a top-10 bet on Theegala at BetMGM (+225) for 0.5u to profit 1.13u.
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Viktor Hovland (+3000)
This is a value/nostalgia play. Last season, I was getting waxed almost as badly as this year. But, I hammered Hovland for his 2023 BMW and TOUR Championship wins to nearly break even betting on the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season. And I'm even more desperate now than at the start of last year's FedExCup Playoffs.
Hovland made my betting card for the 2023 Wells Fargo and played well for the first three rounds. Heading into the final round last year, Viktor was 7-seven under par and shot a 77 to eject out of the tournament. Granted, he wasn't going to win the Wells Fargo anyway, but his T43 finish is misleading.
Viktor Hovland plays his shot from the sixth tee during the third round of the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
The Norwegian was T3 in his only other start at Quail Hollow in 2021. Moreover, we are getting a great price on Hovland because his season is off to a terrible start. The 26-year-old has zero top-10s this year with his best finish being a T19 at the Genesis. Buyer beware because Viktor could just be broken this year.
If anyone has the game to turn it around, it's Hovland. Quail Hollow is one of the longest courses on the TOUR's circuit. Over the last 30 rounds, Hovland leads the field in APP shots from 175+ yards out and ranks fourth in SG: OTT. His ARG-play is back to being awful, nonetheless, Viktor has the ball striking to stick if near the pin for four consecutive days.
BET 0.7u on Viktor Hovland to win 21u at Bet365 (+3000).
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Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
These odds leave me no choice but to add Matsuyama to my Wells Fargo betting card. Here are all the golfers that have better odds at DraftKings than Hideki for the Wells Fargo but definitely shouldn’t: Patrick Cantlay (+1800), Tommy Fleetwood (+2500), Cameron Young (+2500), and Si Woo Kim (+3000).
Then there are a few guys who "probably" shouldn’t have better odds, but I can understand why they do. These guys include Hovland, Justin Thomas (+2200), and Theegala (+2500). JT hasn’t won since the 2022 PGA Championship. Theegala’s only win came at the 2023 Fortinet Championship in November with a weak during the FedExCup Fall schedule.
As the president of Matsuyama’s fan club, I’m insulted by him having the same odds as Byeong Hun An. Fleetwood, Young, and An have never won on the PGA TOUR. Hideki won The Genesis Invitational in February, a "signature event" with Scheffler in the field. Either way, Matsuyama is criminally underrated and I don’t get it.
Hideki Matsuyama walks to the 17th green during the final round of the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
My only explanation for getting +3500 odds on the 2021 Masters champion is he hasn’t played at Quail Hollow since 2019 and Hideki’s best finish in the Wells Fargo is a T11 in 2016. However, Matsuyama tied for fifth in the 2017 PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow and played in the second-to-last group in the final round with the eventual winner, JT.
Hideki leads this Scheffler-less field in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) over the last 20 rounds, per Bet The Number, and No. 1 on my Wells Fargo power rankings. Before his disappointing T38 at The Masters, Matsuyama was on a heater. After the Genesis win, Hideki finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer ("signature event"), T6 at THE PLAYERS ("signature event"), and T7 at the Valero Texas Open.
Ultimately, these odds are disrespectful because Matsuyama has true "win equity" in this limited field whereas most of the other golfers in this field don’t. Since this is a no-cut event and Hideki can shoot a 7-under round at any course in the world, I’m placing a bet for him to finish top-10 too.
BET 0.7u on Hideki Matsuyama to profit 24.5u at DraftKings (+3500).
- Add a top-10 bet on Matsuyama at BetMGM (+250) for 0.5u to profit 1.25u.
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Will Zalatoris (+4000)
Willy Z is a big-game hunter who performs well on tough courses. Zalatoris has seven top-10 finishes in 11 career majors. This season, Will tied for second at The Genesis, T4 at the Arnold Palmer, and T9 at The Masters. All are "big-boy" events. His short-game is a concern, but Zalatoris is still dialed in with the irons. The Wake Forest alum is sixth in this field for SG: APP and 12th in APP shots from 175+ yards.
Like Matsuyama, Zalatoris has worse odds than a bunch of golfers he is better than. He withdrew from THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson to give his surgically repaired back some rest. He missed most of last season with a back injury. Because of this, golf bettors are hesitant to back him. Nevertheless, Zalatoris will pop at one of these tournaments, most likely at one of these "signature events".
BET 0.6u on Will Zalatoris to profit 24u at DraftKings (+4000).
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make all placement bets at BetMGM since it doesn't apply "dead heat" rules.
Xander Schauffele Top-10 (-120): Bet 1.2u to profit 1u
Besides betting Scheffler to win, taking Xander to finish in the top 10 is the most profitable bet you can make on TOUR in 2024. He has seven top-10s this year: T10 at The Sentry, T3 at The American Express, T9 at the Farmers, T4 at The Genesis, T2 at THE PLAYERS, T5 at the Valspar Championship, and 8th at The Masters.
With Scheffler not playing this week, Schauffele is No. 2 in my 2024 Wells Fargo power rankings. He finished second here last season and doesn’t have a weakness in his game. Aside from actually winning a tournament, which Xander hasn’t done since going back-to-back at the Genesis Scottish Open and Travelers Championship in 2022.
Xander Schauffele and his caddie line up a putt during Round 3 of the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the San Diego State graduate finished solo second behind Clark at the 2023 Wells Fargo while gaining strokes in all the major golf stats. Last year, Schauffele was +10.7 SG: T2G, +4.5 SG: OTT, +3.7 SG: APP, and +4.8 SG: Putting at Quail Hollow.
I’m okay with missing out on Schauffele’s next win because I’m not betting him at less than +1400 odds. I’ve been burned too many times by him. However, Xander will find a way to cash a top-10 in the Wells Fargo. Whether it be choking away or "sneaking in the backdoor" in the final round.
Jake Knapp Top-20 (+300): 0.5u: to profit 1.5u
I'm still mad at Knapp for squandering away a sick payday for me by puking all over himself in the final round at last week's Byron Nelson. He was one stroke behind the eventual winner, Taylor Pendrith, entering Sunday and carded a disappointing 1-under to finish solo eighth. I'm going to forgive Knapp because his game fits this course nicely.
Plus-power OTT and precision with your long irons are a good prerequisite for Quail Hollow. Well, Knapp is fourth in this field for Ball Speed over the last 30 rounds, according to Bet The Number. He can be inaccurate OTT, but Clark won the 2023 Wells Fargo despite his driving accuracy being 12.0% worse than the field, per DataGolf.com.
Lastly, Knapp is fifth in this field for SG: APP, 15th in APP shots from 175+ yards, and 19th in SG: Putting on Overseed, the grass used for Quail Hollow's greens. Even if Jake struggles in the first two rounds, he can backdoor a top-20 by firing at pins and rolling the rock.
Matthieu Pavon Top-20 (+275): 0.5u to profit 1.38u
The Frenchman is ninth in the FedExCup standings in his first season as a PGA TOUR pro. Pavon finished T7 at the Sony Open in his first start on TOUR, won the Farmers, followed it up with a solo third at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am the week after, and tied for 12th as a debutante at The Masters.
Pavon's biggest weakness is chipping. However, I'll overlook that given the price. He is 14th on TOUR this season in SG: APP, 15th in Total Driving, which blends distance with accuracy, and 19th in SG: Putting. His impressive performances at Pebble Beach and Augusta give me confidence he over-performs his odds again at this "signature event".
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Wells Fargo Championship 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Rory McIlroy
My One-And-Done league used the Zurich Classic as a bye week. After the 16 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup. I'm tied for 1,511th out of 4,400 entries with $$6,500,122 collected and I'm out of the money if the Mayo Cup ends today.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
- Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
- Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
- Wyndham Clark for The Masters: Missed cut $0
- Cameron Young for the RBC Heritage: T62 for $43,600
- Adam Scott for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: $52,293
Usually, I use someone from my betting card for my one-and-done league. If his odds weren't trampled by Scheffler skipping this event, I'd have an outright on McIlroy But, I'm switching it up for the Wells Fargo because Rory is a three-time winner of this event and I'm hoping the other players in my league save him for a major. Also, I'm sinking in the standings and need a massive payday.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.