Weekend Betting Guide: Stay The Hell Away From Bowl Games And Other Gambling Advice
Honestly, I tried to include non-College Football Playoff 2024 bowl games in the Weekend Betting Guide for December 29th to New Year's Day. It just isn't happening. I know OutKick readers love college football but the player empowerment era has ruined it for me.
Before you get your panties in a bunch, let me say I'm all for college athletes making money off their likeness (NIL) and the transfer portals. College football and basketball coaches get paid stupid money and randomly bounce on their teams all the time.
But, these bowl game opt outs are garbage. Maybe this is a "get-off-my-lawn" take yet I think opting out of a bowl game should affect a prospect's NFL Draft stock. A player bailing on the final game of the season just doesn't sit right with me.
The Pop-Tarts mascot is lowered into a toaster following the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl between the Kansas State Wildcats and the NC State Wolfpack at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Call me "old fashioned." But, isn't part of the reason they play because they love football? Isn't it cool to win your final college football game ever? Granted, it's easy for me to say at my computer. The lack of competitiveness is a turnoff.
Whatever. Rant over. My point is I'm not going to waste my time handicapping games with players there's no data on. Unlike a lot of content creators in the sports betting space, I actually put money on my picks.
And it's not chump change. I'm trying to pay for vacations and a better lifestyle with sports betting winnings. Unfortunately, that didn't happen last weekend. My record fell to 47-34-4 in these Weekend Betting Guides and my bankroll is down to +13.31 units (u).
Weekend Betting Guide for Christmas 2023 recap: 1-3
Weekend Betting Guide for Dec. 29 - New Year's Day 2024
Detroit Lions (+5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys, Saturday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET
For what it's worth, Detroit plus the points is my favorite wager in this Weekend Betting Guide. You can read my analysis below or listen to the OutKick Bets Podcast with my five best bets for NFL Week 17.
The abridged version is there is no way the Lions have a "flat spot" under head coach Dan Campbell. Dallas's defense is overrated and ranks last in defensive rushing success rate. Detroit's offensive line can hold up against Dallas's pass rush and Lions QB Jared Goff will carve up that secondary.
Bet 2.2u on Detroit +5.5 (-110) at PointsBet. The Lions are playable down to +4.
America's 'Real' Game of the Weekend: Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Technically, Dolphins-Ravens isn't "America's Game of the Weekend" but it is. Baltimore could clinch the 1-seed throughout the playoffs with a win Sunday. Miami has the tiebreaker over the Ravens with a win and could earn 1-seed with a win in Week 18.
These teams played in one of the best regular-season games last year. The Dolphins rallied back from a 21-point deficit entering the 4th quarter to beat the Ravens 42-38 in Baltimore last season in Week 2.
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle celebrates after scoring a TD vs. the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Entering Week 17, Baltimore has the 2nd-highest power rating in the market, per Inpredictable.com. The Ravens pummeled the highest power-rated team, the Niners, 33-19 in San Francisco Christmas night, Monday.
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In fact, between that win over the 49ers in Week 16 and Baltimore's beatdowns of the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks earlier this year, the Ravens have the three most impressive wins of the season.
Furthermore, this Baltimore squad is different than the one that lost to Miami in 2022. The Ravens gave up a lot of big leads last year and their defense improved greatly with a mid-season trade for LB Roquan Smith.
Baltimore Ravens LB Roquan Smith leads the huddle prior to a game against the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. (Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
Also, the Dolphins are one of the most banged-up teams in the league right now. Miami WR Jaylen Waddle has been ruled out for Sunday. Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is "questionable" for Sunday and isn't practicing this week. Plus, their offensive line has "cluster injuries".
Baltimore's three losses are flukey while Miami has put up some duds this season. The Buffalo Bills boat-raced the Dolphins 48-20 in Week 4. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Fins 31-17 in Week 8. Ultimately, the Ravens have the better coach, QB, and defense and will prevail Sunday.
Bet 1.2u on Baltimore -3 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook. The Ravens are playable up to -4.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-110) on Sunday Night Football
Minnesota won the 1st meeting with Green Bay 24-10 in Lambeau in Week 8. That was a much healthier Packers team than the current version. Green Bay WRs Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks and LB De'Vondre Campbell all played that game and none of them are practicing this week.
The Vikings certainly have their own injury concerns. Minnesota TE T.J. Hockenson suffered a season-ending injury in Week 16 and Kirk Cousins is out for the year. The Vikings have been playing musical chairs with the QB position since. They benched QB Nick Mullens for QB Jarren Hall ahead of this week.
The Minnesota Vikings celebrate after intercepting a pass by Packers QB Jordan Love at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
That said, I'm moving forward with Minnesota here because its defense can duplicate that Week 8 performance in this de facto playoff game. The Vikings are 10th in both yards per play and points per game allowed.
Lastly, Vikings WR, and 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Justin Jefferson missed the 1st Packers-Vikings game this season. Jefferson can make plays regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Especially vs. a Green Bay secondary who suspended its best cornerback, Jaire Alexander, for this game.
Bet 1.1u on Minnesota's moneyline (-110) at Caesars. The Vikings are playable up to -135.
CFP Semifinal, Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan (-120), New Year's Day 2024 at 5 p.m. ET
I'm just going to ride out with my college football preseason predictions for the CFP. This summer, I gave out Overs for Michigan and Washington's regular-season win totals and took a flyer on Michigan to win the national championship at +900.
I'm not crazy about fading Alabama and Nick Saban with a Wolverines team that underperforms in this spot under coach Jim Harbaugh. This includes Michigan's 51-45 upset loss to the TCU Horned Frogs in last year's CFP semifinal.
Michigan Wolverines safety Rod Moore and CB Will Johnson celebrate an interception vs. the TCU Horned Frogs at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
However, the Wolverines returned most of last year's team and this is the weakest 'Bama team to make the CFP. I thought Florida State got screwed by the selection committee and should be here instead of the Crimson Tide.
Finally, Michigan's defense should mop Alabama. The Wolverines are 13th nationally in sack rate and the Crimson Tide's offense is 130th in sack rate allowed. Alabama only gains 4.0 yards per rush (85th) and Michigan's defense allows just 2.9 yards per carry.
Bet 1.2u on Michigan's moneyline (-120) at BetMGM. The Wolverines are playable up to -3.
CFP Semifinal, Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Washington +4, Monday at 8:45 p.m. ET
Texas is -4 favorites only because sportsbooks know people are going to bet the Longhorns regardless. Plus, the Huskies are the last Pac-12 champion ever. People assume the Pac-12 is the worst Power 5 conference in college football but it's better than the Big XII in my opinion.
That said, Washington is +0.248 in points per play with the 6th-toughest schedule in the country. While Texas is +0.164 in points per play with the toughest schedule. UT's win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa is more impressive than any of UW's victories.
Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. holds the the Pac-12 Championship MVP award as after a win over the Oregon Ducks at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
But, again, this is a weaker Alabama program than most years. The Huskies beat Oregon twice this year and the Ducks finished 11-2 and No. 8 in the AP poll. The bottom line is I don't think Texas can stop Washington's passing attack.
Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. was 2nd in Heisman Trophy voting this season and the Longhorns allowed 300-yard passing games to five opponents. Plus, Texas is bad on 3rd-down and in the red zone. It's tough to win by margin if you don't convert in high-leverage situations.