Weekend Betting Guide: Picking Winners For Penn State-Ohio State, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Eagles
It went from bad to god-awful in the previous Weekend Betting Guide. After winning my 1st five weekends writing this column, I've lost back-to-back weeks including a 1-4-1 performance last week.
Social obligations have kept me from sweating my bets and probably screaming at my television the past two weekends. I've declined two Halloween parties and will get back to my normal degenerate sports betting self.
My record in these Weekend Betting Guides is 17-14-2 and my bankroll is +5.14 units (u). It's a full-on football edition from me. As of Friday, there aren't weekend lines for the MLB championship series.
Weekend Betting Guide for October 21-22
Big 10 Game of the Week: No. 7 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State (Saturday, noon ET on FOX)
The round robin in the Big Ten East between No. 2 Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State is the biggest story of college football this year. All three play each other and perhaps two of them represent the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff.
OHIO STATE/PENN STATE TICKETS ARE UNBELIEVABLY EXPENSIVE
I'm staying away from picking a side in this game. It feels like most people are picking Penn State and I lean that way myself. But, there's a saying in sports betting that goes "Public 'dogs get slaughtered".
Instead, I'll hit the Under 45.5. Both teams have 1st-year starting QBs. Penn State has subpar skill-position players. Ohio State's offense has a couple of key injuries. Both defenses power-rank higher than the offenses.
Also, a college football insider told me Buckeyes 2nd-Team All-Big Ten WR Emeka Egbuka will most likely miss his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury. Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson is also "questionable" for Saturday.
Lastly, Penn State-Ohio State could be a "bad weather" game. There's an above-average chance of rain Saturday at Ohio Stadium. Plus, the weather forecast predicts 18 mph winds with gusts of roughly 30 mph.
BET 0.55u on 45.5 (-110) in Penn State-Ohio State at PointsBet
ACC Game of the Week: No. 16 Duke at No. 4 Florida State (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Circa Sports in Las Vegas is a "market-making" sportsbook that opened this game with 52.5-point total. There's more money on the Under but more bets are on the Over, per Pregame.com. I.e. the Pros are betting the Under and the Joe's are on the Over.
The Under makes a lot more sense to me, even at the reduced price, because both teams play a slow pace. Duke is 123rd in plays run per game and Florida State is 95th. Plus, Blue Devils QB Riley Leonard missed Duke's previous game with an injury and is a game-time decision Saturday.
Duke Blue Devils QB Riley Leonard scrambles against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. (David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Furthermore, it's going to be difficult for the Blue Devils to keep the chains moving and capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Seminoles are 16th in defensive 3rd-down conversion rate and 17th in red zone scoring rate. Duke is outside the top-70 nationally in both.
BET 0.55u on 49.5 (-110) in Duke-Florida State at PointsBet
NFL Week 7 'Teaser of the Week': Buffalo Bills (-2.5) & Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Both the Bills and Seahawks are in what's called the "advantage teaser" zone. Buffalo (-8.5) visits the New England Patriots in Week 7. While Seattle (-7.5) hosts the Arizona Cardinals Sunday.
A 6-point "teaser" allows you to add 6 points to a team's spread and you have to combine at least two legs. An advantage teaser is when you move a team's line below the key number of -3 or above the key number of +7.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen scrambles against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Technically, since Buffalo is a road favorite at the New England Patriots, the Bills might be a less than advantageous teaser leg. But, Buffalo is 3-0 in New England since 2020 with a +18.3 SU margin. The Patriots are 1-12 with -7.5 SU margin as underdogs since last year.
Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has his guys ready to go after losses. Since 2018, Seattle is 15-3 on 6-point teasers following a loss as home favorites. Also, the Cardinals are exactly who we thought they were. That's 3- or 4-win team, at best.
TEASE: Buffalo down to -2.5 and Seattle down to -1.5 to win 1 unit
NFL Week 7 'Best Bet': Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens -3 (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX)
I'm not going to do a deep-dive into this game. Please check out the link below for a full breakdown. The gist of my handicap is the Ravens have the better quarterback, coach, and defense and by margin.
Moreover, this is your quintessential Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), more money is on Baltimore and more bets are on Detroit. Typically, you'd rather follow the money when it's counter to the public.
BET 1.05u on the Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) at PointsBet
America's NFL Game of the Week: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS)
Look, this is more of a lean as a pose to a best bet. But, this is the biggest game of the NFL Week 7 slate and I'm going to have action on it. When I 1st looked at this game earlier in the week, my instinct was to back the underdog.
The Chargers usually plays the Chiefs tough. Since 2020 (Justin Herbert's rookie season), LAC is 2-4 SU vs. Kansas City but 5-1 ATS. The average final score of those six meetings is 278-26.5 in favor of the Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert lays on the ground after being hit by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
However, this information is already baked into the spread so to speak. The sportsbooks are aware of how tight these Chargers-Chiefs games have been lately. This KC -5.5 line leads me to believe the sportsbooks are begging for pro-LA money.
And, per PFF, the sportsbooks are getting it. PFF is reporting that more than 80% of the cash is on the Chargers as of Friday morning. I already discussed this situation above; LAC are public 'dogs, which tend to get slaughtered by sportsbooks.
BET 0.28u on the Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110) at PointsBet
The 'Get-Out' Game: Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC)
Prior to the legalization of sports betting in America, bettors would settle with their bookies Monday for the previous week. Sunday Night Football was the last chance to extend a hot streak or, in my case, break even. Hence the Get-Out game.
My last chance to stay hot or mitigate a loss is this possible Super Bowl preview. I'm going with the reigning NFC champion Eagles in this spot. They are better in the trenches and the Dolphins have only bullied weaker teams.
Patriots QB Mac Jones is sacked by Eagles DT Jalen Carter at Gillette Stadium. (Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)
They got smacked around by Buffalo 48-20 in its only loss this season. Miami's other five opponents have losing records. This includes the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, and Carolina Panthers. All of whom are last in their respective divisions.
Finally, we are getting an angry Philadelphia team that choked in its 1st loss of the season last week, 20-14, to the New York Jets. Especially because of how flukey that loss was. The Eagles were -4 in turnovers and one 1st-down away from winning that game.