Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 9's Big-Time Games, 3 Ranked College Football Showdowns
I might have to enter Gamblers Anonymous after this weekend. I'll be in Las Vegas to watch the New York Giants play the Raiders. So not only will I have access to the best sportsbooks in the country but I'll also hit the blackjack tables.
It's the perfect weekend to be in Vegas. The college football and NFL slates are insane. Three of the best NFL games this year are in Week 9. Plus, there are several pivotal conference matchups between ranked teams in college football.
This is a far cry from last weekend's sports schedule. Last week was so boring, I skipped my Weekend Betting Guide column. Well, I'm back to put my winning record on the line. I'm 21-16-2 and my bankroll is +5.64 units (u) since NFL Week 1.
Weekend Betting Guide for November 4-5
Big XII Game of the Week: No. 25 Kansas State +4 at No. 7 Texas (Saturday, noon ET on FOX)
This is FOX's Big Noon Kickoff game of the week and both teams have a 4-1 Big XII entering Week 10. Texas will be without starting QB Quinn Ewers for a 2nd consecutive game.
Last week, UT threw for the 2nd-fewest yards of any game this season (170). Regardless of Longhorns backup QB Maalik Murphy's recruit ranking, he's still a downgrade from Ewers.
Texas beat Kansas State in last year's meeting 34-27 and the Longhorns covered as -3 road favorites. But, Wildcats QB Will Howard didn't play that game and Kansas State's offense is much better with Howard under center. He is responsible for the 2nd-most TDs in the Big XII this season (21).
Conversely, Ewers played as did former Texas All-American RB Bijan Robinson who now plays in the NFL. UT and KSU had the same yards per play (6.6) in last year's meeting.
But, Robinson trampled the Wildcats with 209 yards on 30 carries. Texas's ground game has taken a slight step back in yards per rush and rushing TDs per game without Robinson.
Finally, this is a better spot for the Wildcats. They are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this season and Texas is 4-4 ATS. Since KSU head coach Chris Klieman took over the program in 2019, the Wildcats are 27-13-2 ATS vs. Big XII teams.
BET 1.1u on Kansas State +4 (-110) at PointsBet
Pac-12 Game of the Week: No. 5 Washington at No. 24 USC +3 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Let me come clean upfront: I'm a USC fan and it's cost me money this season. The Trojans have failed to cover in six straight games with two outright losses during that skid. But, Washington is 0-4 ATS in its past four games as well.
I had to double-check but this is the 1st Washington-USC meeting since pre-pandemic (2019). That was before the Huskies hired head coach Kalen DeBoer and Southern California poached Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma. I.e. there isn't relevant head-to-head data for this game.
Either way, I'm taking the points with the Trojans. Even casual college football fans know about USC's recent woes. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), most of the action is on Washington as of Friday morning so we have "fade the public" angle.
This is a matchup between two future top-five QBs in the NFL Draft: Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. vs. Southern California QB Caleb Williams. But, gimme Williams in this "prove it" game. USC has a balanced attack whereas Washington has a mediocre ground game.
Everyone clowns on the Trojans' defense, and rightfully so. They are 107th in points allowed per game. That said, the Huskies aren't exactly the '85 Bears. Washington gave up 33 points last week to a bad Stanford team. Plus, the Huskies are 132nd nationally in sack rate so Williams will have all day.
BET 0.28u on USC +3 (-110) at PointsBet
SEC Game of the Week: No. 14 LSU +3 at No. 8 Alabama (Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET on CBS)
Speaking of teams I've lost money on this season, allow me to put on the clown makeup and bet the LSU Tigers yet again. Alabama and LSU have the same record vs. the spread (5-3 ATS).
Also, there's some sketchy line movement in this game. According to Pregame.com, the Crimson Tide opened as -4.5 favorites and are getting more than 75% of the action as of Friday morning. But, the line is moving towards LSU, which is now a +3 'dog.
Furthermore, Tigers QB Jayden Daniels is low-key one of the best quarterbacks in the country. PFF grades Daniels as the 2nd-best QB in college football and he leads the SEC in all major passing stats.
Last year, Daniels balled vs. Alabama in LSU's 32-31 overtime victory. Daniels only threw for 182 yards but had 2 passing TDs with zero INTs and added 95 rushing yards with 1 rushing TD.
BET 0.28u on LSU +3 (-110) at PointsBet
NFL's Germany Game of the Week: Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network)
I've already made my pro-Miami case in this game so just click the link below. The TLDR of this handicap is "McDaniel is an offensive guru, the Dolphins have smarter travel plans than the Chiefs, and this is the healthiest version of Miami this season."
BET 1.65u on Miami Dolphins +2 (-110) at PointsBet
'Because I'm There' NFL Game of the Week: New York Giants +2 at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX)
Since I'll be in Vegas to watch my Giants play the Raiders, I'll have action on this game. Fun story: I've attended two Giants games in my life and NYG has lost both.
First, I witnessed the Giants get blown out 37-14 by the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego in 2013. Then I was in-person to watch the Giants choke at the Dallas Cowboys 27-26 in 2015 thanks to a game-winning TD pass from Tony Romo to Jason Witten.
Anywho, there's no way I'm going to see my favorite team and not betting on them. Even though the Giants suck this year. My 1st pro-NYG argument is the Raiders suck worse. Vegas just fired its head coach and general manager and benched its starting QB.
My football-based rationale for betting the Giants is they will be able to run the ball Sunday. The Raiders are 27th in yards per rush allowed and the G-Men's offense is much better when RB Saquon Barkley is cooking.
BET 0.28u on New York Giants +2 (-110) at PointsBet
America's NFL Game of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -3 (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX)
I'll make this analysis simple: Philly has the better coach, quarterback and defense. On top of that, the Eagles only need to cover -3 at home. Lincoln Financial Field is one of the few home fields you that is worth a full 3 points. The Linc is going to be rocking Sunday.
BET 0.55u on Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-110) at PointsBet
NFL 'Get-Out' Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals -2 (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC)
This could be my last chance to break even for the week and add to my winnings (hopefully). Since their trip to London, the Bills have been a different team. They lost two Pro Bowl defensive starters to season-ending injuries in London: LB Matt Milano and CB Tre White.
Moreover, after their early-season struggles, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are back. Cincinnati has the 2nd-best offensive success rate since Week 4. The Bengals marched up and down the field in a 31-17 whooping of the San Francisco 49ers last week.
Additionally, this is the time of year when Cincy gets it going. After Week 8 since 2021, the Bengals are 13-4 outright and ATS. Last year, Cincinnati crushed Buffalo 27-10 in the AFC divisional round.
Granted, Cincy's defense has taken a step back this season due to former S Jessie Bates III signing with the Falcons in the offseason. But, the Bengals have the same defensive line that bullied the Bills last year. Cincinnati pressured Buffalo QB Josh Allen on 31.9% of his dropbacks in that playoff game.