Weekend Betting Guide: World Series Game 1, NBA, NFL Week 8, College Football
With winter almost here, it's time to start ditching weekend brunch and outdoorsy things to sit on the couch and watch sports. That's even more true this weekend, which has the NBA, the first two games of the 2024 World Series, NHL, college football, and NFL Week 8.
We have a three-day weekend for sports since the World Series starts Friday. Maybe I'm a degenerate, but the best way to enjoy these sports is to have some betting skin in the game. So, without further ado, let's discuss how we can profit from all the action this weekend. (For the record, I'm 18-22 and -9.88 units (u) this football season in my Weekend Betting Guide).
Weekend Betting Guide: October 25-27
- Bet 1u on the New York Yankees moneyline (+108) vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the 2024 MLB World Series at FanDuel.
- Bet 1.1u on the Golden State Warriors -3 (-110) vs. the Utah Jazz at DraftKings.
- Bet 1u on the Phoenix Suns moneyline (+105) vs. the Los Angeles Lakers at DraftKings.
- Bet 0.55u on the UCF Knights -2.5 (-110) vs. the BYU Cougars at FanDuel.
- Bet 0.55u on the Penn State Nittany Lions -6.5 (-110) vs. the Wisconsin Badgers at BetMGM.
- Bet 2u on the Chicago Bears -3 (-105) vs. the Washington Commanders at BetMGM.
- Bet 0.55u on the San Francisco 49ers -4 (-110) vs. the Dallas Cowboys at Caesars Sportsbook.
MLB World Series Game 1
Yankees (+108) at Dodgers Friday, 8:08 p.m. ET
New York is starting ace Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Cole had a down year because he began the season on the IL. Yet, if you were drafting a starter for one game only, Cole would be the consensus first pick. He has big-game experience and A+ stuff. Granted, as a lifelong Yankees fan, I'm biased. That said, they are the better team.
The New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the 2024 World Series is one of my picks in the 'Weekend Betting Guide' for October 25-27. (Scott Galvin-Imagn Images)
The hitting is a toss-up even though New York's lineup has better K/BB and hard-hit rates, per FanGraphs. However, the Yankees have a better pitching staff, and pitching is more important in playoff baseball. Especially relief pitching and NYY's bullpen than Los Angeles's has a better ERA and K/9 this postseason.
This is a rare underdog role for the Yankees because they've had ugly losing skids this year and the Dodgers have been more consistent. Cole wasn't an underdog in a playoff game when pitching for the Houston Astros and hasn't been one for New York. The public is betting LA, so we get a fade the market angle for Game 1.
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NBA Friday
Warriors (-3) at Jazz, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies closed as -2.5 road favorites in a 126-124 win over the Jazz Wednesday, and the Warriors are better than that Memphis team. Golden State is at full strength while the Grizzlies were missing four rotation players Wednesday, including PF, and defensive anchor, Jaren Jackson Jr.
Golden State Warriors PG Stephen Curry and PF Draymond Green celebratevs. the Portland Trailblazers at Moda Center. (Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images)
In their series opener, the Warriors crushed the Portland Trail Blazers 140-104 despite Steph Curry scoring 17 points on just 10 shots. Golden State had seven double-digit scorers vs. Portland and has depth at every position, which might be handy Friday because Curry and Draymond Green are "questionable".
Hopefully, Steph and Draymond will play vs. the Jazz. If they do, Golden State should be -5 vs. Utah. But, I'm taking the Warriors either way because of their depth. Plus, it's only their second game of the season, so do Curry and Green need to load manage? I think not.
Suns (+105) at Lakers, 9 p.m. ET
Phoenix went 15-of-38 from behind the arc with a 48.7% 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in a 116-113 overtime win at the LA Clippers Wednesday. This is a direct result of hiring coach Mike Budenholzer, and the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks chucked threes when Budenholzer coached them.
Phoenix Suns SG Grayson Allen shoots a three against the Los Angeles Clippers at Intuit Dome. (Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
Conversely, the Suns were 21st in 3PAr at 37.8% last season despite ranking fifth in 3-point shooting. If Phoenix shoots more threes this season, it'll be a top-three offense. Also, the Lakers were 28th in 3-point attempts per game allowed and 25th in defensive 3-point shooting.
Finally, we are fading recent results because the Suns didn't cover as -4.5 favorites vs. the Clippers Wednesday while the Lakers upset the Minnesota Timberwolves 110-103 as +1.5 underdogs on NBA opening night, Tuesday. Because of this, and the general Lakers' popularity, we are getting a good number for Phoenix since it should be a slight road favorite Friday.
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College Football Saturday
#11 BYU at UCF (-2.5), 3:30 p.m. ET
I'm just going to trust the market here, which has steamed the Knights up to -2.5 after the Cougars opened as -1.5 favorites. BYU is ranked, undefeated (7-0) vs. a tougher schedule and 6-1 against the spread (ATS). UCF is 3-4 straight up (SU) and 4-3 ATS.
With that in mind, an old-school handicapping move is fading a ranked team when they go on the road for a conference game. Furthermore, the Knights are on a four-game losing streak and have lost three of those ATS. My point is UCF has no business being a favorite here and the sportsbooks are begging for BYU money.
UCF's path to victory is controlling the ball with its run game. The Knights have a higher success rate because of their elite ground game, ranking 14th in yards per rush and 32nd in third-down conversion rate. The Cougars are 121st in third-down conversion rate and 101st defensively.
#3 Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. ET
Forget everything I just said about betting unranked teams to cover vs. ranked teams in conference games. Penn State is 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS as road favorites in Big Ten games with a +17.5 scoring margin since 2020. Wisconsin has gotten waxed in its two games vs. ranked foes: 42-10 by Alabama and 38-21 by USC. Whereas the Nittany Lions tore up Illinois 21-7 and beat USC 33-30.
Penn State Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar drops back to pass against the UCLA Bruins at Beaver Stadium. (Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)
Additionally, the Crimson Tide and Trojans threw all over the Badgers, and Penn State QB Drew Allar has the third-highest QB Rating in the Big Ten. Allar will have all day to pick apart Wisconsin's secondary because the Nittany Lions are 27th in sack rate allowed on offense and the Badgers are 88th in sack rate on defense. I got Penn State beating Wisconsin by double digits Saturday.
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‘Best Bet’ of NFL Week 8: Bears (-3) at Commanders, 4:25 p.m. ET
It sucks that Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels will most likely miss Week 8 with an injury to his ribs because then I'd get better odds for Chicago. Plus, it would be awesome to see Daniels, the second pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, face the No. 1 overall pick, Bears QB Caleb Williams.
Regardless, Chicago should be at least -4 favorites over the Commanders, who may start backup QB Marcus Mariota. The Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL and WR Terry McLaurin is Washington's only game-breaker. Chicago had a bye last week with extra time to prepare for the Commanders.
More importantly, the market disagrees with me about the Bears in this spot, which I prefer. Per Pro Football Focus and Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the betting action is on Washington as of Friday morning. This makes the Commanders a "public 'dog", who tends to get slaughtered by sportsbooks.
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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at 49ers (-4), 8:20 p.m. ET
I still feel like an idiot picking San Francisco over the Kansas City Chiefs last week. Nevertheless, I'll let bygones be bygones and take the Niners in this spot because Dallas never wins this game. The 49ers have won three straight over the Cowboys by an average of 15.0 points per game.
Dallas is 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS vs. winning teams with a -7.1 spread differential. Sure, San Francisco has a losing record, but no one expects that to last. For example, the 49ers are the second betting favorite to win the NFC and the favorite to win the NFC West.
San Francisco 49ers RB Jordan Mason runs for a touchdown on the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Ultimately, how much should we downgrade the Niners after losing to the Chiefs? San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel missed last week with an illness but is practicing this week and looks like his normal self. Let's cash in on San Francisco's annual a**-whooping of Dallas.
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