Weekend Betting Guide: Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Tennessee, 2024 ALCS, NFL Week 7

The degenerate sports bettor in me is outraged. It's LOADED sports weekend featuring a rematch of the Super Bowl in NFL Week 7, two of the biggest SEC games this season, the league championship series in the 2024 MLB postseason, and the WNBA Finals. 

Nonetheless, my dumba** booked a girlfriend-boyfriend trip to Chicago this weekend without considering those sporting events that I'll definitely have money on. Unfortunately, I'll have to follow my bets through various apps. 

However, my bets tend to cash at a higher rate when I'm not watching. And lord knows I need a big weekend because I'm 14-20 and -10.37 units (u) this football season in my Weekend Betting Guide.

Weekend Betting Guide: October 19-20

-Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 (-120) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (1.2u)

-Georgia Bulldogs (+4.5) vs. Texas Longhorns (0.75u)

        Sprinkle 0.25u on Georgia's moneyline (+164)

-New York Yankees (-120) moneyline vs. Cleveland Guardians (0.6u)

-Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1u) from earlier this week

        Sprinkle 0.33u on Cleveland's moneyline (+240)

-San Francisco 49ers (-122) moneyline vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-122)

-Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 (-110) vs. New York Jets (0.55u)

College Football Saturday

#7 Alabama at #11 Tennessee (+3.5), 3:30 p.m. ET

The Crimson Tide have looked bad since the second half of their 41-34 win over Georgia in Week 5. Alabama lost 40-35 at the Vanderbilt Commodores as -22.5 favorites the week after upsetting the Bulldogs and eked past the South Carolina Gamecocks 27-25 as -21.5 favorites. 

Also, Tennessee has one of the best defensive lines in the nation and leads the SEC in havoc rate. According to Pro Football Focus, the Crimson Tide have three below-replacement-level starters on their offensive line. 

Tennessee Volunteers RB Dylan Sampson runs with the ball vs. the Florida Gators at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. (Angelina Alcantar/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images)

Lastly, Vanderbilt and South Carolina found success on the ground vs. Alabama and the Volunteers have the best rushing attack in the conference. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson leads the SEC in rushing yards (699) and rushing touchdowns (15).  

#5 Georgia (+4.5) at #1 Texas, 7:30 p.m. ET

This is the first Georgia-Texas SEC game. The Longhorns are -5 favorites and -205 on the moneyline with a 57 total at DraftKings. I’d think this is a "trap line" for Bulldogs backers, but Pregame.com reports that most of the betting action is on Texas as of Friday evening. 

Georgia has lost four straight games against the spread (ATS) while UT is 5-1 ATS with five wins of 22+ points. Plus, the Bulldogs lost outright 41-34 to the Alabama Crimson Tide as -2 road favorites in college football’s biggest game this season. With that in mind, Georgia has played the tougher schedule. 

Georgia Bulldogs QB Carson Beck passes the ball against the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium. (Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)

Texas’s two biggest wins are over the Michigan Wolverines and the Oklahoma Sooners. Michigan ranks 102nd in points per game (PPG) out of 134 schools and Oklahoma is 96th. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, beat the Clemson Tigers 34-3, who are 12th in PPG. 

Ultimately, Georgia has the best football program in the country, and Texas is overrated and will be humbled in its first true test in the SEC. 

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Game 5 of 2024 ALCS: Yankees (-120) at Guardians Saturday, 8:08 p.m. ET

As a NYY fan, I'm biased, but they have the best team in baseball, and certainly in the AL. The reason why I think the Yankees finish the ALCS off Saturday is because their lineup is crushing Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who was thought to be untouchable entering the postseason. 

New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton celebrates a three run home run vs. the Cleveland Guardians in Game 4 of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. (David Dermer-Imagn Images)

Well, he isn't and Yankees All-Star slugger Giancarlo Stanton looks like modern-day Reggie Jackson. Bet New York to punch its ticket to the World Series for the first time since 2009 Saturday. 

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Best Bet of NFL Week 7: Bengals at Browns (+6.5), 1 p.m. ET

As soon as I read Cleveland RB Nick Chubb's article in The Player's Tribune Wednesday, I bet on the Browns +6.5 and sprinkled on their moneyline. Furthermore, Cleveland closed as -6.5 home favorites over the New York Giants in Week 3, who closed as +4.5 home underdogs vs. Cincinnati last week. 

Granted, the market has downgraded the Browns significantly in the last month, but they should have at least the same spread as the Giants here. Cleveland is the healthiest it's been all season in Week 7, and it's wise to bet the underdog in these AFC North games. For the record, I'd play the Browns down to +5. 

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‘America’s Game of NFL Week 7': Chiefs at 49ers (-122), 4:25 p.m. ET 

Everyone is betting the Chiefs because they beat the Niners in Super Bowl 2024 as +2 underdogs and the trends of Patrick Mahomes as an underdog and Andy Reid off of a bye. If this was a rematch in the Super Bowl, I’d bet Mahomes and Reid. 

I have more faith in them rising to the moment than Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan and QB Brock Purdy. Yet, this isn’t the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs aren’t trying to peak in October. I.e., the 49ers are the more motivated team, and closer to full strength. 

San Francisco is missing RB, and 2023-24 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Christian McCaffrey. Kansas City doesn’t have WRs Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown, who’s never played a snap for the Chiefs, and RB Isiah Pacheco. If the Niners were -2 in the 2024 Super Bowl on a neutral field, they should be at least -3 at home in Week 7. 

San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel runs with the ball vs. the Kansas City Chiefs during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)

KC’s defense won’t be able to stop them. San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per drive and ranks ninth in points per play. Besides CMC, Purdy has all of his weapons; three of the 15 best wide receivers in the NFL, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and the best tight end, George Kittle. 

The 49ers don’t lead the NFL in points per game because they are 25th in red zone touchdown rate. That’s a "noisy" stat, which typically evens out in the long run. This is especially true for San Francisco, considering Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football. 

Finally, and I don’t usually make my NFL picks this way, but I just have a feeling the Niners will beat the sh*t out of the Chiefs Sunday. That’s the simplest way for me to put it. 

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Sunday Night Football: Jets at Steelers (+1.5), 8:15 p.m. ET

Word on the street is Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is benching QB Justin Fields for QB Russell Wilson this week. Every NFL sports betting analyst I've heard discuss this game thinks Tomlin is making an error, which is insane to me. For reasons unbeknownst, these analysts are crediting Fields for their 4-2 record. 

Pittsburgh's defense allows 14.3 PPG, which ranks second in the NFL, and Fields is one of the worst passers in the league. Giving Fields most of the credit for the Steelers' success is like saying Trent Dilfer is why the Baltimore Ravens won Super Bowl 2021. 

I must be taking crazy pills because the only person I've heard say Wilson is an upgrade over Fields is fellow OutKick NFL handicapper, Dan Zaksheske. Fields' career high for touchdown passes is 17, he has a 93.9 QB Rating this season, and has two fourth-quarter comebacks in 44 career starts. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 over the New York Jets in NFL Week 7 is one of my picks in the 'Weekend Betting Guide' for October 19-20. (Barry Reeger-Imagn Images)

Conversely, Wilson threw 28 touchdowns and a 98.0 QB Rating with an NFL-best four fourth-quarter comebacks in 2023. Tomlin and Wilson are known for pulling wins out of their a**es, so they are a perfect fit. Plus, if any locker room will tolerate Wilson’s corniness, it’s a Tomlin locker room. 

Not only do I upgrade the Steelers with Wilson starting, but this is the wrong team favored. Pittsburgh was a -2.5 home favorite over the Cowboys for Sunday Night Football in Week 5, and New York isn't 4.0 points better than Dallas. Maybe trading for WR Davante Adams rescues the Jets' offense, but I'll take my chances that doesn't happen Sunday night. 

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