Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 6, College Football, WNBA Finals, MLB Playoffs
Hand up: This year's Weekend Betting Guide sucks. Last year, I won 15+ units (u). But, sports betting content is a "What have you done for me lately" business. Well, if you've been tailing my Weekend Betting Guide, I've been losing you money. Through the first four Weekend Betting Guides of the 2024-25 football season, I'm 10-16 and -10.13u.
A bulk of the damage to my bankroll has been done by college football. I'm currently the worst college football gambler at OutKick. Also, I've lost three of my four "best bets" in the NFL. If the higher-ups found out my record, I may be fired. That said, my back is against the wall coming into this weekend. Since I'm almost at rock-bottom, it can only go up from here.
Weekend Betting Guide: October 12-13
- Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-118) vs. Washington Huskies (0.59u)
- Pittsburgh Panthers -3 (-120) vs. California Bears (0.6u)
- USC Trojans +3.5 (-110) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (0.55u)
- Detroit Tigers moneyline (-120) vs. Cleveland Guardians (0.3u)
- Minnesota Lynx +7.5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty (0.55u)
- Chicago Bears moneyline (-120) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1.2u)
- Detroit Lions -3 (-115) vs. Dallas Cowboys (0.29u)
- New York Giants +3.5 (-104) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1.04u)
College Football Saturday
Washington at Iowa (-2.5), noon ET
We are buying low on the Hawkeyes and selling high on the Huskies. Ohio State crushed Iowa 35-7 last week and Washington got revenge on Michigan from last year’s College Football Playoff National Championship with a 27-17 win. (I’m kidding about the "revenge" since neither team has the same coach or quarterback).
The Wolverines were one of the best publicly bet teams last week and people will think the Huskies are good after they beat Michigan. I’m not downgrading the Hawkeyes after losing to the Buckeyes last week since Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship. Iowa’s other loss this season was to No. 11 Iowa State, who is 5-0.
Fade the Washington Huskies with the Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5, per the Weekend Betting Guide. (Photo credit: Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Michigan, on the other hand, isn’t an impressive win because it has one of the worst pass attacks in the Big Ten. Still, the Huskies gave up 174 rushing yards to the Wolverines after allowing 184 rushing yards to Rutgers the week before, which also doesn’t have a good pass game.
With that in mind, Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson will have a good game vs. Washington. Johnson leads the Big Ten in rushing yards (771) and rushing touchdowns (10). Lastly, since 2020, the Hawkeyes are 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites of -3 or less in Big Ten games with a +7.4 spread differential.
California at Pittsburgh (-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
This is a let-down game for Cal, which lost a 39-38 heartbreaker at home to the Miami Hurricanes last week. ESPN College GameDay was at that game last week, so it was probably California’s Super Bowl. The Bears held a 13-point fourth-quarter lead and that kind of collapse can have a lingering effect.
Now, they fly across the country to face a sneaky-good Pitt team. Panthers freshman QB Eli Holstein has been balling too. Holstein has the fourth-best completion rate in the ACC and is tied for the second-most touchdowns (18). His production doesn’t depend on game-breakers; Holstein has thrown touchdown passes to seven teammates.
Pittsburgh Panthers QB Eli Holstein throws a touchdown pass vs. the West Virginia Mountaineers at Acrisure Stadium. (Barry Reeger-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, Holstein spent his freshman season with Alabama as a four-star high school recruit before transferring to Pitt when Kalen DeBoer became the Crimson Tide’s head coach this offseason. So, the kid is a highly touted prospect but was stuck behind Alabama QB, and Heisman Trophy frontrunner, Jalen Milore.
Finally, Cal doesn’t have good down-to-down efficiency and Bears QB Fernando Mendoza eats too many sacks. They converted 17 fewer first downs than Miami last week (30-13) and Mendoza is 131st out of 134 schools in sack rate.
Penn State at USC (+3.5), 3:30 p.m. ET
After last week's embarrassing loss at Minnesota as -8.5 road favorites, I have to bet USC to bounce back Saturday. Everyone will bet Penn State but the line is moving toward Southern California since the Trojans opened as +4 underdogs. I.e., someone with big pockets is betting USC and I want to tail that person.
Also, betting a ranked team as a short home favorite over an unranked team in conference play is one of the biggest sucker bets in college football. Especially when the spread is suspiciously low. USC has the most impressive win on its resume (27-20 over LSU September 1) and this is Penn State's first conference road game.
USC Trojans QB Miller Moss drops back to pass vs. the Wisconsin Badgers at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. (Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)
Southern California is +81 in net first downs this season and its offensive line is good enough to protect Moss. As long as they clean up the mistakes, QB Miller Moss and head coach Lincoln Riley score enough points to keep the Trojans within the number.
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Game 5 of 2024 ALDS: Tigers (-120) at Guardians Saturday, 1:08 p.m. ET
I'm rolling with my guy, Tarik Skubal, who is Detroit's ace and Game 5 starter. The future 2024 AL Cy Young won the AL's pitching Triple Crown by leading the league in wins (18), strikeouts (228), and ERA (2.39). I name-dropped Skubal when I gave out the Tigers to make the playoffs before the season started. He is the only difference between these teams.
Detroit and Cleveland have nearly identical slash lines in this series with strong bullpens. Skubal has won four straight games vs. the Guardians, including Game 2 of this series and once in the regular season. In Game 2, he pitched 7-scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts, 3 hits, and no walks. At these odds, I'm willing to bet Skubal shuts down Cleveland again Saturday.
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WNBA Finals Game 2: Lynx (+7.5) at Liberty Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Minnesota upset New York 95-93 in Game 1 Thursday. I gave out the Lynx +6 on X earlier that night because I love this matchup for them. New York had the highest 3-point attempt rate in the WNBA during the regular season. But, Minnesota led the WNBA in offensive and defensive 3-point percentage.
These teams met four times before the WNBA Finals: Three regular-season games and the Commissioner's Cup Finals. The Lynx were 3-1 SU and ATS in those games and made 17 more threes than the Liberty. The 3-pointer is more important in women's basketball because the games are lower-scoring and more dependent on jump shooting.
Even though New York led for most of Game 1, the Liberty were lucky to be ahead. They got 15 more offensive rebounds than the Lynx. Most of those offensive rebounds were due to hustle, but some were just lucky bounces. Minnesota out-shot New York 50.7-37.8% from the field Thursday, which is more predictive than the Liberty's cheap rebounds.
The Liberty are -7.5 favorites for Game 2 because they were the No. 1 seed entering the WNBA playoffs and had an 18-point lead in Game 1. Yet, styles make fights, and the Lynx can beat the Liberty at their own game. If Minnesota does a better job on the glass, which is mostly effort, the Lynx will keep this game close and possibly win outright.
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NFL London Game: Jaguars vs. Bears (-120) Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
I've already handicapped this game via an article and the OutKick Bets Podcast. Chicago's moneyline is in my Weekend Betting Guide because I'm getting killed in this article and the Bears are my second-best bet for NFL Week 6.
The short version of my analysis is Jacksonville's pass defense sucks and Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams will continue his recent hot streak. But, instead of me regurgitating what I've already said, just read my article or listen to my podcast, please.
‘America’s Game of the Week': Lions (-3) at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET
Detroit head coach Dan Campbell comes through in these spots. The Lions are 8-3 SU and 10-2 ATS with a +5.9 spread differential when having a rest edge over their opponents since hiring Campbell in 2021. Detroit had a bye in Week 5 and Dallas beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17 on Sunday Night Football with a game-winning touchdown.
The Detroit Lions -3 over the Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 6 is another bet in the Weekend Betting Guide for October 12-13. (Photo credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
The Lions have a huge edge in the trenches. Cowboys pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence is on the IR and Micah Parson is "questionable" for Sunday. Detroit has the best offensive line in football and Pro Bowl C Frank Ragnow returns from injury this week. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson is Pro Football Focus's top-graded pass rusher and Dallas has two rookies on its offensive line.
Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Giants (+3.5), 8:20 p.m. ET
The Bengals are going from road underdogs to away favorites. Since 2022, teams are 9-17-1 ATS in those spots. This is one of my favorite NFL systems to bet because it makes sense to my dumb a**. Essentially, a team probably isn’t good enough to be a road favorite a week after being home underdogs.
Obviously, the Baltimore Ravens have a much higher power rating than New York. However, there’s no telling who will play well each week. I mean the Bengals lost 16-10 at home in Week 1 to the New England Patriots, who haven’t won since. Baltimore lost at home to the Las Vegas Raiders 26-23 in Week 2.
NFL talking heads were dunking on the Giants when they lost their first two games to the Minnesota Vikings 28-6 and the Washington Commanders 21-18. But, those losses don’t look so bad anymore. The Vikings are 5-0 and the Commanders are first in the NFC East at 4-1. Plus, New York could’ve, should’ve beat Washington if the Giants had a kicker.
The New York Giants +3.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals is one of the featured games in my Weekend Betting Guide for October 12-13. (Photo: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)
They beat the Seattle Seahawks 29-20 Sunday. The Seahawks and Bengals have similar profiles, except the Seahawks have a lot more talent on defense. Both have great pass games with mediocre pass protection and weak front sevens. Cincinnati’s defense is 30th in points per play and New York gained 420 total yards on 5.9 yards per play against Seattle in Week 5.
NYG plays a "bend but don't break" style of defense under first-year defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. The Giants make teams matriculate the ball up the field, assuming they’ll eventually stall out. Ultimately, New York can play keep away and turn this into a coin-flip game. That said, I'll take my chances with the Giants +3.5.
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