Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 5, MLB Playoffs, College Football, UFC 307
Stock up on beer and snacks because this is the best sports weekend since January. Saturday, there is a three-course sports fiesta featuring the 2024 MLB playoffs, college football, and Fight Night in the UFC. Then, Sunday, everything takes a backseat to the NFL. Since I'm a degenerate, I'll have action on all these sports in my Weekend Betting Guide.
Like my alcohol and fried food consumption, I'll be gambling in moderation this weekend. As you'll see below, most of my bets won't be "whale plays". Additionally, I'm getting racked through my first three Weekend Betting Guides — 6-11 and -7.72 units (u) — so, I have no choice but to "gamble responsibly".
Weekend Betting Guide: October 5-6
- California Bears +10.5 (-105) vs. the Miami Hurricanes at Caesars Sportsbook (0.28u).
- Missouri Tigers +2.5 (-110) vs. the Texas A&M Aggies at FanDuel (0.28u).
- South Carolina Gamecocks +9 (-110) vs. the Ole Miss Rebels at DraftKings (0.28u).
- San Diego Padres moneyline (+118) vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers at FanDuel (0.25u).
- Julianna Peña (+140) vs. Raquel Pennington in UFC 307 at DraftKings (0.25u).
- Mario Bautista (-142) vs. Jose Aldo in UFC 307 at DraftKings (0.36u).
- Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (-110) vs. the New York Jets at BetMGM (0.55u).
- Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-110) vs. the Baltimore Ravens at FanDuel (2u).
- Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110) vs. the Dallas Cowboys at BetMGM (1.1u).
College Football Saturday
Missouri (+2.5) at Texas A&M, noon ET
The sportsbooks are begging for Aggies' money with them being just -2.5 favorites at Kyle Field. They are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) with their only cover being a 33-20 win at Florida last month. Texas A&M lost as -3 home favorites vs. Notre Dame in its first game. That loss looked worse after the Fighting Irish lost to Northern Illinois 16-14 the following week.
Missouri Tigers WR Luther Burden III (3) catches a touchdown pass against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. (Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)
Mizzou is only 2-2 ATS with one-score home wins over Boston College as -14.5 favorites and Vanderbilt as -17.5 favorites. Yet, the Tigers have one of the best offensive lines in the country and one of the best pass games in the SEC. Missouri QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden should be able to light up Texas A&M’s secondary. Plus, the Tigers have covered four of their last five games as road underdogs in SEC play.
Ole Miss at South Carolina (+9), 3:30 p.m. ET
According to Pro Football Focus, South Carolina has played the 22nd-toughest schedule, and Ole Miss, 106th. The Gamecocks have a higher "Simple Rating System", which blends strength of schedule with margin of victory.
In their first game of SEC action, the Rebels lost 20-17 to Kentucky as -15.5 home favorites last week. South Carolina beat the Wildcats 31-6 in Kentucky last month. Also, the Gamecocks are coming off of a bye, so they have extra preparation. South Carolina is 3-1 ATS and narrowly lost to LSU 36-33 as +6.5 home underdogs.
South Carolina Gamecocks RB Raheim Sanders celebrates a touchdown vs. the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. (Jordan Prather-Imagn Images) (Jordan Prather-Imagn Images)
Lastly, the Gamecocks can D up. They are seventh in yards per play allowed, 16th in points per play allowed, and 11th in sack rate. Ole Miss’s offense is supposed to be a truck. But, the Rebels got shut down last week by Kentucky, and LSU is the only team to score 20+ vs. South Carolina.
Miami at California +10.5 (-105), 10:30 p.m. ET
I’m fading Miami coming off a huge, miraculous win in primetime. The Hurricanes beat Virginia Tech 38-34 last week thanks to the officials overturning VT’s would-be game-winning Hail Mary at the end of regulation. A loss could’ve hurt the U’s future chances of clinching a College Football Playoff berth.
Also, Miami is flying across the country while California is coming off a bye. Since hiring head coach Mario Cristobal in 2022, the Hurricanes are 4-13 against the spread (ATS) in ACC games with a -8.2 spread differential. The Hurricanes are 1-3 ATS as road favorites in conference games over that span as well.
Finally, California’s defense is too good for Miami to cover -10.5, and the Bears have played a tougher schedule, according to Pro Football Focus. They are eighth nationally in points per play allowed and 14th in both sack rate and yards per play allowed.
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MLB Playoffs Saturday: Padres (+118) at Dodgers, 8:38 p.m. ET
San Diego’s bullpen has the best Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP") in the majors since the All-Star break. FIP is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher’s control. The Padres’ relievers have the second-best K-BB% over that stretch, and the essence of pitching is balls and strikes.
From a talent perspective, these lineups are a toss-up, and the Padres beat the Dodgers 8-5 in their regular-season series. Both teams have righty starters on the bump Saturday. Well, according to FanGraphs, they are neck-and-neck in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with Los Angeles having a slight edge (117-116).
San Diego’s Game 1 starter, RHP Dylan Cease, has the third-best "Stuff+" among qualified starters, per FanGraphs. Ultimately, the Padres have an edge in starting and relief pitching and are the hottest team entering the postseason. Remember, the 2023 World Series teams played in the wild-card round. The MLB playoffs are more about getting hot at the right time.
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‘Fight Night’ Saturday: UFC 307
This is a two-title fight pay-per-view with the main card beginning at 10 p.m. ET. The headliner is Alex Pereira defending his UFC Light Heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree. I'm not betting this fight because Pereira is a massive favorite.
Women's UFC Bantamweight Fight: (C) Pennington vs. Peña (+140)
Pena is returning to the Octagon for the first time since losing to Amanda Nunes for the Women's UFC Bantamweight Title at UFC 277 in July 2022 by unanimous decision. There is controversy about whether Pena deserves a title fight in her first match in 2+ years. Maybe Dana White put Pena in this fight because of her two main event title fights with Nunes.
Pennington is on a six-fight win streak, three over top-10 fighters in the women's bantamweight division, such as Mayra Bueno Silva (seventh) at UFC 297, Ketlen Vieria (third) at a UFC Fight Night, and Macy Chiasson (fourth) at another UFC Fight Night. Yet, five of those wins have been by decision, which is walking a tightrope in combat sports.
With that in mind, this is a good price for Pena, whose statistics look good to my stupid MMA brain. I'm not an avid UFC fan, but I enjoy betting on these fights if that makes sense. And, I've won money betting on my last four UFC events, so I'm doing something right.
That said, their significant strike differential is similar, whereas Pena averages more than double the takedowns per 15 minutes. Pena can control the fight with her grappling, negate Pennington's striking, and steal a win if it goes the distance.
Bantamweight Fight: Aldo vs. Bautista (-142)
I love Bautista here. Aldo is a much bigger name in MMA because he's headlined several pay-per-views vs. some of the UFC's biggest stars, including Conor McGregor and Max Holloway. He was the first-ever UFC Featherweight champion, had an 18-fight win streak from 2006-14, and Sherdog's Fighter of the Year in 2009.
Because of Aldo's popularity, he'll get most of the betting action. As of Friday, Aldo is getting nearly 80% of the bets at BetMGM, per John Ewing. But, in combat sports, the public bets underdogs while professionals bet favorites. It's usually the opposite for team sports. So, a bet for Bautista is a bet against the public.
Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista face off during the UFC 307 press conference at Salt Palace Convention Center in Utah. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
More importantly, Aldo likes to stand up and strike, but Bautista has better striking numbers. He has a +1.7 differential in significant strikes landed vs. absorbed. Aldo, on the other hand, is -0.1. Plus, Bautista averages more than four times the takedowns per 15 minutes and has five more victories by submission (6-1).
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NFL London Game: Jets vs. Vikings (-2.5) Sunday, 9:30 a.m ET
Coaching and vibes are more important for these international games. It’s hard to put together a game plan for international games with the media obligations and travel. And, I like betting teams that are more excited about showcasing the game overseas. Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem like someone excited about going to London.
Also, the vibes are just off in New York. Head coach Robert Saleh is one of the betting favorites to be the first coach fired, and the Jets are 20-35 since hiring him in 2021. Rodgers and Saleh were taking shots at each other in their Week 4 postgame press conferences after NYJ lost to the Denver Broncos 10-9. That won’t help Saleh’s job security.
Meanwhile, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell saved QB Sam Darnold’s career. He is flourishing because this is the best situation Darnold has ever been in. Minnesota has a top-10 offensive line in football, the best receiver in the sport, and 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, WR Justin Jefferson, and an elite dual-threat running back, Aaron Jones.
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‘Best Bet’ of NFL Week 5: Ravens at Bengals (+2.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I've already written and podcasted about this game, and my headline is Wrong Team Favored. Joe Burrow is absolutely cooking right now and Baltimore's pass defense gives up a lot of explosive plays.
Furthermore, it's smart to fade teams after big wins in primetime because the public usually overreacts. The Ravens crushed the Buffalo Bills 35-10 last week, so most of the public will bet Baltimore on Sunday.
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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Steelers (-2.5), 8:20 p.m. ET
This is the rule of "Betting on Mike Tomlin as a short home favorite". Since 2020, Pittsburgh is 9-3 straight up (SU) and ATS as home favorites of -3 or less, including five consecutive victories. Also, the Steelers usually "get right" in front of the Yinzers: Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU and ATS at home following a loss since 2020.
Pittsburgh has a massive edge in the trenches. Dallas’s two All-Pro pass rushers, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, aren’t playing this week. The Steelers are fourth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. The Cowboys have two rookies on their starting offensive line to block former NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and three-time All-Pro DT Cameron Heyward.
The Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over the Dallas Cowboys are one of my three NFL Week 5 picks in the 'Weekend Betting Guide' for October 5-6. (Photo credit: Christine Tannous-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images)
Finally, Steelers QB Justin Fields could have a huge game vs. Dallas's banged-up front seven. The Cowboys typically struggle with running quarterbacks with Lawrence and Parsons on the field. They are in trouble without those guys, and rank 26th in rushing defense success rate either way. This plays right into Tomlin's hands since he wants to establish the run anyway.
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