Weekend Betting Guide Featuring NFL Week 4, Georgia Vs. Alabama

Unfortunately, I've been battling a sickness all week and my weekend is over before it even starts. Yet, luckily, I can use this as an excuse to do what I'd be doing anyway: Gambling on sports. Instead of going to brunch with my girlfriend or running errands, I'll be trying to win rent money with my Weekend Betting Guide. 

Thankfully, there are several good football games this weekend to keep me occupied while on the mend. Including NFL Week 4, headlined by the Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, there is a Georgia vs. Alabama college football game before the SEC championship for the first time in years thanks to conference realignment.  

Even though I'm giddy about couch-locking and betting on football, perhaps I shouldn't be. I went 3-3 last weekend and lost -1.91 units (u). Now, I'm 4-8 and down -5.57u after my first two Weekend Betting Guides in the 2024-25 football season. With rent due next week, it's time to turn it around. 

Weekend Betting Guide: September 28-29

• Bet 1.1u on the Georgia Bulldogs moneyline (-110) vs. the Alabama Crimson Tide at BetMGM.
• Bet 0.55u on the Penn State Nittany Lions -17.5 (-110) vs. the Illinois Fighting Illini at FanDuel.
• Bet 1.12u on the Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 (-112) vs. the Houston Texans at DraftKings.
• Bet 2u on the Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (+100) vs. the Washington Commanders at Caesars Sportsbook.
• Bet 0.65u on the Baltimore Ravens moneyline (-130) vs. the Buffalo Bills at BetMGM.

SEC Game of the Weekend: #2 Georgia (-112) at #4 Alabama Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

This is the first game Alabama has been a home underdog since 2007. According to several sports betting insiders, a majority of the action is on the Crimson Tide as of Friday morning. The sportsbooks probably expected the public to bet 'Bama here. So, there is a fade the market angle in this game. 

Also, Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe makes a ton of explosive plays but struggles with down-to-down efficiency. Alabama is 62nd nationally in success rate but fourth in points per game. Milroe's biggest problem is he eats too many drive-killing sacks: 'Bama is 104th in offensive sack rate. 

More importantly, Kirby Smart has turned Georgia into the best program in the country. The Bulldogs are 45-2 since 2021, winning 42 consecutive regular-season games and back-to-back College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championships in 2021-22. They probably would've threepeated last season if they weren't the last team out of the CFP. 

The Georgia Bulldogs beating the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa Saturday is one of my picks in the Weekend Betting Guide for September 28-29. (Photo: Tanner Pearson-Imagn Images) 

Georgia and Alabama are the two most talented schools in the country. But, this is the first year of Nick Saban's successor in Tuscaloosa, Kalen DeBoer. With all due respect to DeBoer, Saban is the GOAT in college football coaching. DeBoer is an offensive guy while Saban is one of the greatest defensive minds in football history. 

According to ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, the Crimson Tide was 126th out of 134 programs in returning defensive production this season. Bulldogs QB Carson Beck will likely go first in the 2025 NFL Draft and Alabama's defense will take a step back under DeBoer. 

Ultimately, I'll pay to see DeBoer beat Smart and Beck in their first meeting. 

_____________________________

‘Fishiest Spread' of the Weekend: #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State (-17.5) Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Las Vegas, or the sportsbooks, are begging us to bet the Fighting Illini. As +9.5 road underdogs, Illinois upset then-No. 22 Nebraska on national TV Friday, September 27. It's the second-ranked team the Fighting Illini beat this year after then-No. 19 Kansas. Now, Illinois is ranked and getting 17.5 points?! 

This feels like a setup. Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Pregame.com report that roughly 80% of the betting action is on the Fighting Illini at the time of writing. With that in mind, I'll get on the same side as the sportsbooks, which will be rooting for Penn State Saturday. 

The Penn State Nittany Lions crushing the Illinois Fighting Illini in a Big 10 game Saturday is another pick for my Weekend Betting Guide. (Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin has shown awareness of the spread. Maybe he wants to look good for boosters betting on Penn State. But, we've seen Franklin be aggressive with the game out of reach to cover the spread. The Nittany Lions are 8-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games as favorites of -17 or greater. 

Lastly, on paper, Penn State is three scores better than Illinois. Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar is leading the Big 10 in QB Rating, with a bullet. Allar has a 218.3 QB Rating and the next closest guy is Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke at 194.1. Penn State has a +5.2 yards per play differential and Illinois is +0.6. 

_____________________________

‘Bounce-Back’ Spot of NFL Week 4: Jaguars (+6) at Texans Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

One of the more profitable ways to bet the NFL is "fading the most recent results". Because Jacksonville got crushed by the Buffalo Bills 47-10 on Monday Night Football, no one will bet the Jaguars. It might make you uncomfortable, but it's profitable betting on teams after they get embarrassed in primetime. 

Moreover, since the Jaguars opened as +5 underdogs vs. Buffalo, the market is saying the Texans are better than the Bills. That's false. Buffalo is the second-best team in the NFL behind the Kansas City Chiefs. Houston was -3.5 favorites over Jacksonville on the preseason look-ahead, so this is an overreaction to recent results. 

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence throws a pass against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Plus, this is a must-win for the Jaguars because they can still win the division. Houston leads the AFC South with a 2-1 record and Jacksonville still has its division games remaining. If it beats the Texans twice, the Jaguars would own the tiebreaker despite the 0-3 start. 

Finally, I'm willing to fade the Texans because they are 0-3 ATS this season and rely on QB C.J. Stroud to bail them out on third down. Per RBSDM.com, Houston is 30th in early-down success rate. "Early-down success rate" is predictive because the whole playbook is available on first and second downs. 

_____________________________

Best Bet of NFL Week 4: Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5) Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

This is the perfect "sell-high" spot for the Commanders. Everyone is talking about Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels after upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Daniels completed 21-of-23 throws for 254 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, and added a rushing TD. 

On top of that, the Commanders haven't punted since the fourth quarter of their Week 1 loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You almost have to fade that kind of offensive success. First, it's completely unsustainable. Second, opponents will adjust to Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's scheme. 

Arizona is sixth in defensive sack rate and Daniels is 11th in sack rate. Eventually, he will take an untimely sack or the Commanders will get called for a stupid procedural penalty that keeps ruining games. We saw Kingsbury's offenses struggle in the second half of games, and as the season progressed, when he coached the Cardinals from 2019-22. 

PFF says Arizona is better in every single category except rushing. However, Cardinals RB James Connor is a better ball carrier than Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr., and Arizona QB Kyler Murray is more of a threat with his legs than Daniels. Not to mention, PFF gives Washington the sixth-worst tackling grade. 

The Cardinals have played three good games against tough teams while the Commanders have the 25th-toughest schedule, per PFF. Arizona covered against the juggernaut Bills in Week 1. The Cardinals destroyed the Los Angeles Rams 41-10 two weeks ago. Then they hung tight with the Detroit Lions in a 20-13 loss last week. 

_____________________________

Sunday Night Football: Bills at Ravens (-130), 8:15 p.m. ET 

I'm applying a similar logic here as the Jaguars-Texans and Commanders-Cardinals breakdowns above. Albeit, I'm not as confident in this pick as the first two. Regardless, this is still a "sell-high" spot for Buffalo after it destroyed Jacksonville Monday. Again, the Bills are the second-best team in football, so bettors will hammer Buffalo +2.5. 

That said, the Bills have played the easiest schedule thus far and the Ravens have played the third-toughest, according to PFF. Baltimore came within a toe of upsetting the Chiefs in Week 1 and choked away a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. Meaning, the Ravens could be 3-0 straight up and ATS. 

Also, Baltimore has a strength-on-weakness edge in the rushing department. Buffalo is 21st in yards per rush (4.1) and 24th in yards per rush allowed on defense (4.7). The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per rush (5.9) and yards per rush allowed (2.8). Don't get me wrong, the Bills are likelier to win the Super Bowl, but Baltimore will win Sunday. 

For those who stuck around this long, I have a secret Weekend Betting Guide play to give you. I'm trying to "middle" with the Ravens' moneyline and a three-team, six-point "teaser", including the Buccaneers (vs. the Philadelphia Eagles), New York Jets (vs. Denver Broncos), and LA Rams (vs. the Chicago Bears). 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.