Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 3, USC-Michigan, Caitlin Clark's WNBA Playoff Debut

I was so butt-hurt about getting crushed in my first Weekend Betting Guide of the football season that I took last weekend off. Nah, I'm just kidding. I simply wasn't feeling the college football slate and I gave out my NFL Week 2 picks in my Circa Million VI column.

What's no laughing matter is the hole I dug myself in the Weekend Betting Guide for September 6-8 where I went 1-5 and lost -3.66 units (u). That said, I won +15.11u last football season and went 58.1% on bets given out. So, stick with me because I'm rallying this weekend across three different leagues. 

Weekend Betting Guide: September 21-22

• Bet 0.56u on USC -4.5 (-112) over Michigan at DraftKings.
• Bet 0.56u on TENNESSEE -6.5 (-112) over Oklahoma at DraftKings.
• Bet 1.1u on the HOUSTON TEXANS -2 (-110) over the Minnesota Vikings at BetMGM.
• Bet 2u on the TENNESSEE TITANS -2.5 (-115) over the Green Bay Packers at FanDuel.
• Bet 1.1u on the BALTIMORE RAVENS MONEYLINE (-110) over the Dallas Cowboys at FanDuel.
• Bet 0.27u on the CONNECTICUT SUN -4.5 (-108) over the Indiana Fever at FanDuel.

Big 10 Game of the Weekend: #11 USC (-4.5) at #13 Michigan Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET 

In the first of my two square college football bets this weekend, I'll lay it with the Trojans in Ann Arbor. Now that Jim Harbaugh is in the NFL, Michigan will go back to the gulags. USC head coach Lincoln Riley is an offensive guru, QB Miller Moss is balling out, and Southern California's defense finally looks competent. 

The Trojans are fourth nationally in offensive success rate. Pro Football Focus gives Moss the sixth-highest grade among 274 quarterbacks. USC is 16th in yards per play allowed on defense. Southern California upset LSU 27-20 in its first game and stomped Utah State 48-0 two weeks ago. 

USC Trojans QB Miller Moss throws a pass against the LSU Tigers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. (Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

Let me be clear: I'm worried about "stepping in it" here. Despite the public hammering the Trojans, they've gone from a -5.5 favorite to -4.5, which is suspicious. But, that was the case for Texas vs. Michigan in my Weekend Betting Guide earlier this month and the Longhorns destroyed the Wolverines. 

Regardless, I'm moving forward with USC because Riley is 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) vs. teams with a winning record after a bye while coaching the Trojans and Oklahoma Sooners. The Trojans will be ready for their first-ever Big 10 conference opener. 

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SEC Game of the Weekend: #6 Tennessee (-6.5) at #15 Oklahoma Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET  

This is another sucker bet, but I'm rolling with my homies, and college football experts, Trey Wallace and Barrett Sallee, who took Tennessee to cover. Plus, I'm leading the Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava bandwagon. I'm a Long Beach guy. Nico played high school football in Long Beach. He was my best bet to win the 2024-25 Heisman Trophy. 

Oklahoma will get humbled in its first season in the SEC, and I'm not sold on Brett Venables being a good coach. The Sooners gave up 30+ points in four games last year and Tennessee's offense is better than any Big XII school. The Volunteers are averaging 63.7 points per game, albeit vs. non-conference foes. 

Lastly, as Trey Wallace said earlier this week on The Ricky Cobb Show, "This is personal" for Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel. I'm not going to transcribe Wallace's commentary on the Oklahoma-Heupel relationship. Just watch the video. Heupel will have the Volunteers ready to blast the Sooners. 

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‘Fake Sharp’ Bet of NFL Week 3: Texans (-2) vs. Vikings Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I've already written and podcasted about this game, but Houston will dominate Minnesota in Week 3. The public will think it's getting a good price on the Vikings as a home underdog after they pummeled the New York Giants in Week 1 and upset the San Francisco 49ers Sunday. However, "public underdogs" get slaughtered by sportsbooks and the market will adjust to underdogs crushing last week. 

Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud rolls out to throw vs. the Chicago Bears at NRG Stadium. (Thomas Shea-Imagn Images)

About the "football logic" for this bet, Texans QB C.J. Stroud is already a top-five NFL quarterback and Houston has the best offensive personnel in the league. Texans WR Nico Collins is a monster and teams cannot double-cover him because he lines up with Pro Bowl WR Stefon Diggs. Houston's offensive line is solid and, more importantly, healthy. 

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‘Best Bet’ of NFL Week 3: Packers vs. Titans (-2.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This is another game I've already broken down via podcast and writing. Packers backup QB Malik Willis will most likely be making his second consecutive start. Typically, backups perform well in their first start and come back down to earth the following week. That's my expectation for Green Bay vs. Tennessee's sneaky good defense. 

The Tennessee Titans covering vs. the Green Bay Packers is my best bet of the Weekend Betting Guide for September 21-22. (Photo Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images)

The Love "will he or won't he play" news will also keep people off the Titans, which is good. And, even if Love plays Sunday, Tennessee beating Green Bay wouldn't be the biggest upset this month. Remember, the Packers and Love lost to the garbage New York Giants with 3rd-string backup QB Tommy DeVito starting last year while the Titans upset the Dolphins as +13.5 road underdogs in Miami. 

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'America's Game of the Week': Ravens (-110) vs. Cowboys Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET 

Baltimore has the better coach, quarterback, defense, and special teams. The "Ravens -1", between -3 and +3, is a profitable price corridor for them. Since 2019 (Lamar Jackson’s first season as a full-time starter), Baltimore is 19-11 SU and 19-10-1 ATS with a +6.0 spread differential in that price range. 

Also, the Ravens have a strength-on-weakness edge over Dallas on the ground. The Cowboys are 23rd in yards per rush allowed (4.9) and 26th in yards per rush (3.7). None of their running backs, Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, and Deuce Vaughn, average more than 3.7 yards per rush. This explains why Dallas is 28th in red-zone scoring rate on offense and dead last defensively. 

LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark's NFL Week 3 Gambling Powwow featuring David Troy and Geoff Fienberg

Both the Ravens and Cowboys have lost three offensive line starters this offseason. Nonetheless, Baltimore is averaging 5.7 yards per rush (ranked third) and allowing just 2.7 yards per rush on defense (first). Lamar is the greatest running quarterback ever and future Hall of Fame running back, Derrick Henry still hasn’t fallen off that "30-year-old running back cliff".

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson hands off to RB Derrick Henry (22) against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 NFL Kickoff Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. (Denny Medley-Imagn Images)

Meanwhile, I expect Baltimore’s defense to "get off the mat" eventually. I was down on the Ravens relative to the market entering this season because they lost three defensive coaches this offseason. Yet, Baltimore still has an elite "defensive spine" and a legit No. 1 corner: DT Nnamdi Madubuike, LB Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton, and CB Marlon Humphrey. 

Finally, the Ravens’ 0-2 record is "bad luck", not "bad play". Baltimore is +0.5 in yards per play differential and +7 in first-downs gained margin. Per ESPN’s Ben Solak, "The Ravens have lost seven games in the last two regular seasons with Lamar as the starter. They had at least a 75% win probability on ESPN's win probability tracker, in the fourth quarter in every game".

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Caitlin Clark's WNBA Playoff Debut: Fever at Sun (-4.5) Sunday, 3 p.m. ET 

Stop traffic. The sport's savior, Caitlin Clark, is making her WNBA postseason debut on football Sunday. Insanely, the WNBA is going up against the NFL. If Clark siphons TV ratings from the NFL, she'll have an accomplishment over the entire NBA. 

Clark appreciation aside, the play is to fade her and the Fever Sunday. Her playoff debut will probably be the biggest game in WNBA history with the most betting action. I'd guess four out of five people will bet the Fever, and we know 80% of sports bettors don't win money. 

Furthermore, the sportsbooks are putting a "Clark Tax" on Indiana. In the only Fever-Sun game in Connecticut this season, the Sun were -10 home favorites. Granted, Indy is much better and Clark has been hooping since the Olympic break. But, the Fever aren't five points better. That's a massive upgrade. 

Ultimately, Connecticut has a strength-on-weakness edge over Indiana in ball security. The Sun average nearly three fewer turnovers per game than their opponents, while the Fever commit 2.6 more turnovers per game. This is a huge factor because playoff basketball is a "battle for possessions", which Connecticut will win. 

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