Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 12, Ohio State-Michigan, NBA In-Season Tournament
Perhaps the best sports week of the year ends with an amazing sports card this weekend. Technically, the weekend starts early with the NFL's 1st-ever Black Friday game, the NBA in-season tournament, and college football rivalry games.
After another winning performance last weekend, my record in these Weekend Betting Guides is 31-25-2 and my bankroll is +8.07 units (u) since NFL Week 1. Enjoy some Thanksgiving leftovers while fading or following my picks in the ...
Weekend Betting Guide for November 24-26
NBA In-Season Tournament, Friday
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4), 8 p.m. ET tip-off
Minnesota was 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Sacramento last season. And this T-Wolves team is better than last year's team. They acquired elite defensive big Rudy Gobert last offseason and sometimes it takes time for teams to gel.
DunksAndThrees.com adjusts for strength of schedule and that website ranks Minnesota 2nd in net rating (+4.9) and Sacramento 19th (-0.5). Granted, the Kings are playing better since De’Aaron Fox returned from an injury. They are 7-3 in games Fox plays.
Timberwolves wing Anthony Edwards tries to strip Sacramento Kings PG De'Aaron Fox at Target Center in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
But, the T-Wolves are a wagon right now, especially at home. They are 7-0 SU and ATS at home with a +13.1 ATS differential. Minnesota is 9-1 SU over the last 10 games with wins over the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, and New York Knicks.
Lastly, the Kings are in the last of their 6-game road trip and they are missing starting forward Keegan Murray. Sacramento may be tired from its travel on a holiday week and, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Murray leads the Kings in on/off net rating at +12.1.
Bet 1.1u on Minnesota -4 (-110) , the Timberwolves are playable up to -5
New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5) at Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Since 2021, the Pelicans are 7-1 SU and ATS (+12.8 ATS margin) vs. the Clippers. Plus, New Orleans is 14th in adjusted net rating and the Clippers are 16th at DunksAndThrees.com.
The Pelicans are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over their last five games. Their recent wins include the Mavericks, Nuggets, and back-to-back victories over the Kings. NOLA’s only loss in the last five games came against a red-hot T-Wolves team, 121-120.
Furthermore, from a basketball perspective, I like how the Pelicans match up with the Clippers. New Orleans is a physical team and LAC is more of a finesse team. The Clippers settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers and defaults to iso-ball.
Pelicans PF Zion Williamson attacks the paint on the Sacramento Kings at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
While New Orleans bigs Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas attack the paint. The Pelicans lead the NBA in paint points per game over the last five.
Finally, NOLA is getting healthier and has a deeper roster than LAC. Pelicans PG Jose Alvarado made his season debut Monday and PF Larry Nance Jr. returned from a 4-game absence Wednesday.
Alvarado is a great on-ball defender that can agitate James Harden and Russell Westbrook. The Clippers don't have a lot of size and Nance is a beast on the offensive glass.
Bet 1.1u on New Orleans +5.5 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Pelicans are playable down to +4
College Football weekend action, Saturday
'The Game' of the Weekend: No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan (-3.5), noon ET kickoff
Not being a college football fan is an advantage here. Don't get me wrong, I like betting on it. Especially the College Football Playoff (CFP). But, I don't give a s*** about the Michigan sign stealing scandal.
There could be value on Michigan because college football fans are betting Ohio State with their hearts and not their brains. According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the action is on the Buckeyes as of noon ET Friday.
However, by the eye-ball test, the Wolverines are better than the Buckeyes with or without Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines. Also, UM has back-to-back wins over OSU: 42-27 in 2021 and 45-23 last season.
Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy throws a long TD vs. Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. (Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)
With that in mind, those Buckeye teams were better than this one and this is the best Wolverines team of the Harbaugh era. Plus, Michigan's motivation is through the roof after choking in last year's CFP and with this sign stealing scandal.
The Wolverines lost to the TCU Horned Frogs 51-45 as -7.5 favorites in last year's CFP semifinal. And like the 2022 World Series-winning Houston Astros, the Wolverines want to prove they don't need to cheat to win.
Even though Harbaugh is suspended for The Game, I believe in Michigan's program more than Ohio State coach Ryan Day's. In fact, the further the Buckeyes get away from the Urban Meyer era, the worse their team becomes.
Bet 1.05u on Michigan -3.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook, the Wolverines are playable up to -4.5
Iron Bowl: No. 8 Alabama at Auburn (+13.5), 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff
I've lost a ton of money fading Alabama in what I figured would be a "down year" in Tuscaloosa but haven't learned my lesson yet. There's suspicious line movement in this game because Alabama opened as -15 favorites and is down to -13.5.
This is despite more than 90% of the bets in the consensus market being on the Crimson Tide, per Pregame.com. Plus, the Tigers lost 31-10 at home last week to the New Mexico State Aggies. But, some one sharp is betting Auburn. That's why the line is moving.
Alabama Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe scrambles around vs. the Wildcats at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
There are two football-based reasons for liking the Tigers in this matchup. First, Auburn's defense is 14th in opponent's 3rd-down conversion rate and 30th in opponent's red-zone scoring rate. Also, the Tigers are 25th in sack rate and Alabama eats the highest rate of sacks in the country.
Even though this is the Iron Bowl, it could be a lookahead spot for the Crimson Tide. They already punched their ticket to the 2023 SEC Championship next week against the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs.
Bet 0.55u on Auburn (+13.5) DraftKings Sportsbook, playable down to +11.5
NFL Week 12 action, Sunday
NFL Game of the Weekend: Buffalo Bills (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff
This is a "buy-low" spot for the Bills and a "sell-high" spot for the Eagles. Buffalo is rarely an underdog and on the outside looking in to the AFC playoffs.
Whereas the Eagles are coming off of a massive win in the Super Bowl 2023 rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Philly didn't play well and that win was more about the Chiefs playing poorly.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is sacked by Chiefs pass rusher Chris Jones at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
The Eagles gained just 4.4 yards per play (YPP) and were -7 in 1st-down differential against KC. Jalen Hurts had a negative expected points added (EPA) per play, negative completion rate over expectation, and 33% success rate.
When you remove both teams records, Buffalo is better than Philadelphia across the board. The Bills out-rank the Eagles in EPA/play differential, net YPP, and pressure rate differential. Buffalo is better on 3rd downs and in the red zone.
Bet 1.65u on Buffalo +3 (-102) at FanDuel, playable down to +2
'Get-Out' Game of the Weekend: Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
I'm predicting an MVP performance from Lamar Jackson on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens are currently the 1-seed in the AFC and the NFL MVP is up for grabs.
More importantly, Lamar balls out on primetime. Jackson is 14-5 SU in primetime games. His QB Rating (101.5) and yards per rush (6.2) in primetime are career bests for any time split.
OutKick Bets Podcast: NFL Week 12, Thanksgiving 2023 Gambling Guide featuring Dan Zaksheske & Scott Martin
Also, Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh vs. LA's Brandon Staley is a huge coaching mismatch in favor of the Ravens. Harbaugh has a Super Bowl and Staley appears to be cursed.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson chats with head coach John Harbaugh at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Chargers have a ton of injuries to key players including Pro Bowl pass rusher Joey Bosa, WRs Mike Williams and Josh Palmer and Pro Bowl C Corey Linsley.
Lastly, Inpredictable.com says the market makes Baltimore 5.4 points better than Los Angeles on a neutral field. Since the Chargers don't have a home-field advantage, there's value on the Ravens only -3 favorites vs. LAC for Sunday Night Football.