Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 11, Georgia-Tennessee, NBA In-Season Tournament
I'm starting my Weekend Betting Guide a little earlier this week because I'm a basketball betting junkie. The NBA's in-season tournament continues Friday and I have a couple of looks in the Association. If hoops aren't your thing, it's all good. I'll have plenty of NFL and college football action for you to fade or follow.
Unfortunately, I won't be able to watch most of the games I'm betting this weekend. Friday, I'm going to all-you-can-eat Korean BBQ and Saturday some a**hole I associate with is having a November wedding. So I'll be monitoring my NBA and college football bets through apps.
My record in these Weekend Betting Guides is 27-23-2 and my bankroll is +6.22 units (u) since the start of the NFL regular season.
Weekend Betting Guide for November 17-19
NBA In-Season Tournament, Friday
New York Knicks (-7) at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET tip-off
Knicks SG Quentin Grimes (wrist)and SF R.J. Barrett (migraines) are both “questionable” Friday. Barrett has missed the past two games. Grimes hurt his wrist in New York’s 116-114 win at the Atlanta Hawks Wednesday.
But, New York is deep enough to overcome these injuries against a bad Wizards team. Knicks combo guard Immanuel Quickley will be in the mix to win the 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year.
They signed SG Donte DiVincenzo this offseason and traded for wing Josh Hart last season. Hart is one of the best rebounding wings in the NBA and Washington struggles to grab defensive boards.
New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson and PF Julius Randle celebrate a win vs. the Wizards at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. (Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
Also, this is a sneaky “great spot” for the Knicks. Since last season, they are 10-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) as road favorites vs. teams below-.500.
Furthermore, NYK has a +10.6 scoring margin in those games. As road favorites of -3 or greater, the Knicks are 7-1 SU (+13.0 scoring margin) and ATS over that span.
Lastly, all the NBA games are part of the new in-season tournament. And if there’s a team that’ll take this thing seriously, it’s the Knicks. They play hard during the regular season and New York coach Tom Thibodeau pushes his starters more than every other coach in the NBA.
Bet 1.1u on the Knicks -7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook, playable up to New York -8
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5), 8 p.m. ET tip-off
The Nuggets just do not cover these games. Since last season, Denver is 18-14 SU as road favorites but only 13-19 ATS with a -4.6 spread differential. The Pelicans on the other hand are 8-5 ATS with a +5.9 spread differential as home underdogs and 7-6 SU.
Denver crushed New Orleans 134-116 at home earlier this month. The Nuggets outperformed NOLA in all four factors Nov. 6th. Both teams have the same projected starting 5’s for Friday as their earlier meeting.
New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson gets into the paint vs. the Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. (Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)
Considering this plus the Nuggets being the reigning NBA champions, doesn’t this line feel like a trap? Plus, the Pelicans just snapped a 5-game losing skid (0-4-1 ATS) with a 131-110 win over the Dallas Mavericks Tuesday.
Denver was -3.5 favorites for this game Thursday but the public is all over the Nuggets. Between Colorado having legal sports betting and Denver’s championship status, this could be the rare case that the public is moving the odds for an NBA game.
Bet 1.1u on the Pelicans +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, playable down to New Orleans +4.5
College Football weekend action, Saturday
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-10) at No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers, 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff
With all due respect to OutKick founder Clay Travis, he's tripping about the Volunteers covering vs. the Bulldogs Saturday. Clay does make good points about fading recency bias and UT being much better at home.
However, Georgia beat Tennessee 27-13 last season and that was a much better Volunteer team. Both were undefeated entering last year's meeting and former Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker was a Heisman Trophy favorite at the time.
Bulldogs QB Carson Beck passes the ball against the Ole Miss Rebels at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia. (Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Bulldogs are reigning back-to-back national champions and have lost a ton of talent from those teams. That said, it's "reload not rebuild" in Athens. The Bulldogs have a higher net yards per play this season than last.
Finally, opponents have been able to throw on the Volunteers recently and Georgia QB Carson Beck has been balling. Beck has thrown for at least 300 yards in two of his last three games with a 6/1 TD/INT rate.
Bet 0.55u on the Bulldogs -10 (-110) at Caesars, playable up to Georgia -12
No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels (+7.5) at Clemson Tigers (-7.5), 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff
This is the sketchiest Power 5 spread of the weekend. Seemingly, the sportsbooks are trying to get "sucker money" on North Carolina and I'm going to fall for it.
North Carolina has lost five straight meetings with Clemson dating back to 2011 including last year's ACC title game, 39-10. But, this is 1st time the Tigers have lost four regular-season games since 2010.
Tar Heels QB Drake Maye throws a pass during the 2022 ACC title game vs. the Clemson Tigers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Also, at 1st I figured the public would be all over the Tar Heels since they are ranked and UNC QB Drake Maye is a future top-five NFL draft pick. So I was shocked to see a "Pros vs. Joes" scenario in the betting market.
There are more bets on the Tigers but more money is on the Tar Heels as of Friday afternoon, per Pro Football Focus and Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the money when it's counter to the public.
Bet 0.55u on the Tar Heels +7.5 (-110) at DraftKings, playable down to North Carolina +6.5
NFL Week 11 action, Sunday
'Mike Tomlin' Voodoo Game of the Weekend: Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at Cleveland Browns
Everyone I hear breakdown Steelers-Browns says Pittsburgh got lucky to beat Cleveland in Week 2 because the Browns out-gained the Steelers in total yards. Heck, even I mentioned that on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast.
The Steelers have been out-gained in yards in every game this season. So their luck has to run out soon, right? Well, counterpoint, what if Pittsburgh actually plays a good game?
More importantly, Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury last week. Once Watson was ruled out for this weekend, the Browns went from a -4 favorite down to the current odds.
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson throwing on the run vs. the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
There should be a bigger downgrade from Watson to Cleveland rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) than the market is accounting for. DTR threw for 121 yards with 0/3 TD/INT rate in his only other start this season: A 28-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4.
Also, the Steelers have two key contributors playing this weekend that didn't play vs. the Browns in Week 2. Pittsburgh DT Cameron Heyward and WR Diontae Johnson should be active Sunday. The Steelers are better at stopping the run with Heyward on the field. And their offense is crisper when Johnson plays.
This is just a spot to back Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin. Since 2018, the Steelers are 12-5 ATS as underdogs in division games. Tomlin is 6-2 ATS vs. the Browns since they hired Kevin Stefanski in 2020.
Bet 1.1u on the Steelers +1.5 (-110) at DraftKings, playable down to pick 'em
'Get-Out' Game of the Weekend: Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Denver Broncos, 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff
This is slang for people that still bet through bookies. Usually, bettors have to settle with their local bookie Monday so the Sunday Night Football game is their last chance to get even for the week.
Anywho, I'm backing the Vikings in support of their coaching staff and as a fade against the Broncos. Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores are doing a great job this season.
Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell talks with QB Joshua Dobbs before the game vs. the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
The Vikings are 10th in net expected points added per play, 8th in net yards per play, and 13th in net early-down success rate. Whereas the Broncos are 28th or worse in all three. Flores is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and Minnesota has allowed less than 20 points in five of the last seven games.
Denver's victory over the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 10 was a fluke. The Bills puked all over themselves and the Broncos still needed a walk-off FG to win. In the NFL, it's wise to fade teams coming off of big primetime victories.