Weekend Betting Guide: NFL Week 1, Texas At Michigan, Colorado At Nebraska
Now that the NFL has returned, my weekends are officially booked until Super Bowl 2025. If anyone needs me, you can find me on the couch doing my favorite thing, gambling on football. I'm running it back with my Weekend Betting Guide after a successful season.
I had a 50-36-4 record (58.1%) and added +15.11 units (u) to my bankroll in the 2023-24 Weekend Betting Guide. Originally, I was skeptical about doing these when my editor suggested it. However, it's turned into a "labor of love" and gets me pumped about a weekend of betting football.
This weekend starts Friday with the NFL's first-ever Brazil game. Then we got college football Saturdays, followed by NFL Week 1. I don't know about you, but I'll be doing a lot of eating and a lot of gambling this weekend. Here's a look at some of the big matchups I'm targeting.
Weekend Betting Guide: September 6-8
- Bet 1u on ‘6-Point Teaser (+160)’: Green Bay Packers, Iowa State Cyclones, and Cincinnati Bengals at DraftKings.
- Bet 1.1u on Michigan +7.5 (-110) over Texas at FanDuel.
- Bet 1.15u on Colorado +7.5 (-115) over Nebraska at DraftKings.
- Bet 2u on Colts +3 (-115) over Texans at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Bet 1.05u on Browns -2.5 (-105) over Cowboys at Caesars.
- Bet 1.1u on Rams +4.5 (-110) over Lions at Caesars.
6-Point, 3-Day ‘Teaser’: Packers, Iowa State, and Bengals (+160)
For those unfamiliar, a "teaser" is a multi-leg parlay where you can add points to a spread, but every leg must hit to cash your bet. DraftKings is one of the few sportsbooks that still accepts teasers. It'll book 6-, 6.5-, 7-, and 10-point teasers. In this case, I'm taking the 6-point, three-team teaser with a +160 payout.
My three legs include the Green Bay Packers +8 (with the points added) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil Friday at 8:15 p.m. ET, the Iowa State Cyclones +9 at the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, and the Cincinnati Bengals -2 vs. the New England Patriots Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
The Green Bay Packers over the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil are an elite "teaser" leg for the Weekend Betting Guide. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
I give Green Bay an edge at coach and quarterback. Packers QB Jordan Love had the second-best efficiency after Week 9 last season and I like his game more than Eagles QB Jalen Hurts'. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has a 56-27 career record with two different quarterbacks.
Also, Philly has several new defensive starters and a new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. With that in mind, Love and LaFleur should have enough success to keep this game within a touchdown. At the minimum, the backdoor teaser cover is open considering Philadelphia's re-tooled defense and Love's gun-slinging.
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: NFL Week 1 Best bets
As for the Iowa State leg, Iowa's offense, as you all know, f*cking sucks. That's baked into the 35-point total, so we should expect another low-scoring affair. Five straight Iowa State-Iowa games have gone Under the total and six of the past seven.
Three of their meetings have been decided by seven or fewer points. Plus, per ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, Iowa State is second in "returning production" this season. This is why college football guru Phil Steele called the Cyclones a "legitimate Big 12 title contender" in his 2024 season preview.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase and QB Joe Burrow warm up before an NFL playoff game vs. the Baltimore Ravens at Paycor Stadium in Ohio. (Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK)
After missing most of this offseason amid a contract dispute, Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase showed up to practice earlier this week and Joe Burrow has his No. 1 weapon. This is the first time Burrow has been healthy at the start of the season since his rookie year. Hence, Cincy's expectations are rightfully high for this year.
With that in mind, the Bengals are "Super Bowl or bust" this season and the Patriots are starting a rebuild. Ultimately, I have Cincinnati beating New England by double digits, so teasing the Bengals down below the key number of "-3" is a "no-brainer" teaser leg.
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‘Big Noon’ Game of the Week: Texas at Michigan (+7.5) Saturday, noon ET
I wish I had more than "fade the public" but I kind of don't. Texas looked great in Week 1 and Michigan "played with its food". The Longhorns crushed the Colorado State Rams 52-0 and the Wolverines beat the Fresno State Bulldogs 30-10, but Michigan failed to cover as -21 favorites.
Longhorns WR Silas Bolden dives for a touchdown vs. Colorado State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. (Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman/USA TODAY NETWORK)
However, according to Pregame.com, more than 75% of the action as of noon ET Friday is on Texas. Before last week, the Longhorns were -3.5/-4 favorites in this spot, so there's an obvious overreaction to the Week 1 results.
While Jim Harbaugh took his talents to the NFL, the Wolverines still have a boatload of talent, especially on defense. Finally, Texas lost a ton of firepower in the NFL draft, including its four most productive receivers and its leading rusher.
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‘Coach Prime’ Game of the Week: Colorado (+7.5) at Nebraska Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
College football fans and the media are souring on the "Deion Sanders Thing" and that’s giving value to Colorado in this spot. Last year, the Buffaloes were the more popular team for the betting public. But, per Pregame.com, the Cornhuskers are getting nearly 80% of the action.
Yet, the line is moving toward Nebraska in nearly every sportsbook. The Cornhuskers are -7.5 favorites in this game Saturday, and a nine-point swing toward Nebraska is massive. Colorado also has a lot of returning talent, including future top-10 pick, QB Shedeur Sanders.
Colorado Buffaloes QB Shedeur Sanders passes the ball in the second half vs. the North Dakota State Bison at Folsom Field. (Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)
Last week, Sanders was 26-for-34 with 445 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 1 interception in Colorado’s 31-26 win over the North Dakota State Bison, an FCS school. Now, before you poo-poo a five-point win vs. an FCS school, just know that the Bison have won nine of the last 12 FCS Championships.
Lastly, everyone likes dunking on Deion when he is losing, but Colorado shows up as an underdog. Since last season, the Buffaloes are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) with covers against Utah and USC in 2023.
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Best Bet Of NFL Week 1: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I've already laid out my case for the Colts covering in my written handicap and my OutKick Bets Podcast for NFL Week 1. All in all, this is my favorite bet in the Weekend Betting Guide and I've heard much sharper NFL analysts than myself make cases for Indianapolis plus the points.
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'America's (NFL) Game of the Week': Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The GOAT, Tom Brady, makes his broadcasting debut. Regardless, the main story from this game will be Cowboys QB Dak Prescott's continued struggles on the road. Last year, Prescott's yards per game, completion rate, and QB Rating dropped heavily in away games. Since hiring coach Mike McCarthy in 2020, Dallas is 6-11 ATS as road underdogs.
Furthermore, the Cowboys' defense is "fake tough". Dallas CB Daron Bland, their second-best defensive player, is out for 6-8 weeks after ankle surgery. Bland was a first-team All-Pro in 2023 with nine interceptions and five defensive touchdowns.
Browns DE Myles Garrett celebrates after a sack against the New York Jets at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Scott Galvin-Imagn Images)
Cleveland's defense on the other hand is very real. Browns pass rusher, and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett will dominate Cowboys rookie LT Tyler Guyton. Plus, outside of WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas's skill-position players are bad.
At the end of the day, Cleveland is my pick to win the 2024-25 Super Bowl, and I'm predicting Dallas will miss the playoffs this season. Because of this, don't I have to bet the Browns -2.5 at home?
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Sunday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions, 8:15 p.m. ET
This is a revenge game for the Rams, who lost in Detroit 24-23 in the 2023-24 NFC Wild Card round despite out-gaining the Lions 7.7-6.1 yards per play. That said, LAR lost because it went 0-for-3 in the red zone and Detroit went 3-for-3. Red zone efficiency is very fluky, and the Rams were the better team that day.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford drops back to throw during the 2024 NFC wild card game vs. the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. (Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images)
More importantly, Los Angeles has the better quarterback-coach combo. Between WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and RB Kyren Williams, this is the best offense Rams QB Matt Stafford has ever played in. They are 6-1 straight up and ATS in Week 1 under head coach Sean McVay.
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