Weekend Betting Guide: Missing Out On USC vs Notre Dame Is No Laughing Matter, Oregon-Washington, The NFL And ALCS
Like last weekend, a social engagement is preventing me from wasting away on the couch and betting sports all weekend. Granted, my obligation is cooler this week, which is going to a buddy's standup comedy special taping.
USC Trojans QB Caleb Williams runs for a TD vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the Coliseum in Los Angeles. (Gina Ferazzi /Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Still, I'm going to miss most of my favorite college football game of the year: USC vs. Notre Dame. Nothing funny about that. Hopefully, the comedy club doesn't have a rule against phones. If not, I'll be watching the Trojans vs. the Fighting Irish on my phone while my buddy is performing. What a supportive buddy I am, right?
Moving forward, last week was a total disaster. It was my first losing week (1-4) since starting these Weekend Betting Guides for NFL Week 1. Through five weeks, my record in these columns is 16-10-1 and my bankroll is +8.25 units (u).
Best bets for October 14-15
Pac-12 Game of the Week: No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington -3 (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Some are pegging this a "revenge game" for Oregon after the Huskies came to Eugene last year and beat the Ducks 37-34. But, one of my go-to angles for handicapping college football is "Always fade Oregon QB Bo Nix as an underdog".
Ducks QB Bo Nix runs for a TD vs. the Washington Huskies during the at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. (Tom Hauck/Getty Images)
Dating back to his days at Auburn, Nix-led teams are 4-11 straight up (SU) and 5-10 against the spread (ATS) as 'dogs. Huskies QB, and 2024 Heisman Trophy favorite, Michael Penix Jr. is a 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS as a home favorite in his college career.
That's all I got or need to bet Washington this weekend. These teams are neck-and-neck in the polls and there isn't a lot separating the two when you dig deeper into this matchup. Just give me Penix over Nix all day.
BET 0.55u on Washington Huskies -3 (-110) at PointsBet
'Bounce-Back' Spot of the Week: No. 25 Miami +3 at No. 12 North Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
Miami suffered one of its most embarrassing losses in the football program's history last week. The Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech 24-20 this past weekend but The U had that game in the bag.
The 'Canes had the ball in the final minute of the game, Georgia Tech was out of timeouts, and all The U needed to do was line up in victory formation. Instead, Miami coach Mario Cristobal made one of the biggest mistakes in coaching history.
Given how bad of a loss this is and how good North Carolina looks, this Miami +3 spread is sketchy. But, from an efficiency standpoint, it makes sense. The Hurricanes lead the ACC in net EPA/play, line yards per snap differential, and Havoc differential.
Lastly, we are getting suspicious line movement with the sketchy spread. The Tar Heels opened as -4 favorites and a majority of the market is betting them. This begs the question: "Why is UNC's spread moving down?"
It feels like the sportsbooks are trying to get more pro-North Carolina action. Let's go the other way and ...
BET 0.55u on Miami Hurricanes +3 (-110) at PointsBet
College Football Game of the Week: No. 10 USC +2.5 at No. 21 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
I'm originally from upstate New York and college football isn't as popular there as the south and midwest. Hence I didn't have a team to root for in college football after attending St. John's University from 2004-08.
One of my best friends in college was an obnoxious Notre Dame fan during the Pete Carroll, Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinhart USC days. He was so annoying and the Trojans were so entertaining that I began rooting for Southern California.
When I was in college from 2004-08, USC beat Notre Dame in four straight meetings, including the famous Bush Push game. From then on I've been a Trojans fan and now that I live in Long Beach, California, I'm even more biased.
Trojans QB Matt Leinart is pushed in to the end zone by Reggie Bush for a game-winning TD vs. the Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana. (Andy Altenburger/Icon SMI/Icon Sport Media via Getty Images)
Furthermore, I gave out USC QB Caleb Williams to win the 2023 Heisman Trophy prior to the start of last season. Plus, I went on Dan Dakich's show in Sept. 2022 and said Williams would be the 1st pick in whatever NFL Draft he enters.
My points is I started the Williams bandwagon and was always betting USC over Notre Dame this weekend. To be safe, I'll take the points with Southern California but I think the best QB in the country keeps the Trojans undefeated Saturday.
BET 0.53u on USC Trojans +2.5 (-105) at PointsBet
NFL Week 6's London Game: Baltimore Ravens -4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans (9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network)
Typically, I'd take the points here with Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel and the Titans. However, I hate their travel plans for this London game. The Titans decided to leave Thursday after practice in Nashville and won't land in England until 6:30 a.m. BST Friday.
Baltimore pulled a similar move for its 1st London game back in 2017 when the Ravens got crushed 44-7 by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Well, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh learned his lesson and the Ravens flew to London Monday morning.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson scores a TD against the Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
It's easy to explain why Baltimore is -4.5 on a neutral field vs. Tennessee. The Ravens rank in the top-10 for net EPA/play, net yards per play, pressure rate differential, and success rate differential. Whereas the Titans are bottom-10 in all those metrics.
Finally, this is the healthiest version of Baltimore we've seen all season. Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. and their best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, are both full participants in practice this week.
BET 0.55u on the Baltimore Ravens -4.5 (-110) at PointsBet
'Best Bet' of NFL Week 6: Carolina Panthers +13.5 at Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET on CBS)
Check out my Panthers-Dolphins handicap for NFL Week 6 below. Essentially, it boils down to Miami possibly looking ahead to the Philadelphia Eagles in primetime next week and this being the biggest game Carolina's season.
Also, everyone and their grandmothers are betting the Dolphins. However, the Panthers are still an NFL team and +13.5 is a lot of points. If need be, Carolina could sneak through the backdoor but, frankly, I think the Panthers could steal this one outright.
BET 1.1u on Panthers +13.5 (-110) & 'sprinkle' on a 0.2u Carolina's +600 moneyline at PointsBet
2023 ALCS Game 1: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros -140 (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX)
Thank god for the ALCS. NFL Week 6's Sunday Night Football game between the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills could be a disaster. Instead of trying to find a way to profit on that trash, I'll focus on playoff baseball.
For whatever reason the reigning World Series champion Astros flew under the radar entering the playoffs. Well, Houston is reminding everyone this postseason it is the best team in baseball. This is the Astros' 7th consecutive trip to the ALCS.
Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros celebrate another trip to the ALCS following its ALDS-clinching win over the Minnesota Twins. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
They beat the Twins 3-1 in the ALDS and face a Rangers team they won the season series against, 9-4. Houston's Game 1 starter Sunday is Justin Verlander. Since joining the Astros in 2017, Verlander is 7-1 SU Game 1 of a playoff series.
There isn't a weak spot in Houston's lineup and the Astros are battle-tested with a much deeper pitching staff. Truthfully, I'm putting some blind faith in Houston here. But, if any team has earned that, it's the Astros.