Weekend Betting Guide: Michigan-Penn State, Ole Miss-Georgia, NFL Week 10
I cannot believe I'm saying this, but thank god for college football this weekend. The NFL Week 10 is trash and this would be a good weekend to build equity with your significant others by going to brunch or spending time with their families.
Regardless, I'll be chilling at home and gambling on sports because that's just what I do. My Weekend Betting Guide record is 24-20-2 and my bankroll is +5.65 units (u) since the start of the NFL regular season.
Weekend Betting Guide for November 11-12
'Big Noon' Game of the Weekend: No. 2 Michigan -4.5 at No. 9 Penn State (Saturday, noon ET on FOX)
Penn State lost to Ohio State 20-12 last month and Michigan is a better version of Ohio State. The Wolverines have a Heisman candidate in QB J.J. McCarthy and two of the best RBs in the country: Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrates with QB J.J. McCarthy after a TD pass vs. Michigan State at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. (Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Also, the Nittany Lions gain 1.7 fewer yards per play than Michigan and Penn State lives off of turnovers, which the Wolverines don't commit. Four of Michigan's six turnovers this season came in one game.
PENN STATE DC TROLLS MICHIGAN’S CHEATING SCANDAL AHEAD OF SATURDAY GAME
I'm not a "college football guy" but I know a lot of people are down on Michigan's football program amid this sign stealing scandal. Regardless, the Wolverines are the best team in the Big 10 and will be in the College Football Playoff as long as they aren't banned.
Finally, the Nittany Lions have lost five straight games as home underdogs by an average of 10.2 points per game (PPG) dating back to 2018.
BET 1.1u on Michigan -4.5 (-110) at PointsBet
Pac-12 Game of the Weekend: UNDER 49.5 in No. 13 Utah at No. 5 Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
Utah-Washington opened with a 54.5-point total has been taking heavy UNDER action due to the weather forecast. Reportedly, there's a 90% chance of rain Saturday at Husky Stadium with wind gusts exceeding 20 mph.
This plays right into Utah's hands. The Utes have the 10th-highest rushing rate in college football and they have a 3-6 Over/Under (O/U) record this season. The Huskies have the 9th-highest passing rate and averages 41.7 PPG.
Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Also, we are fading the recent results of both teams. Utah and Washington are 3-1 O/U in their last four games and both teams flipped 50-burgers in their previous outings.
Lastly, the sharps are accounting for the weather forecast whereas the public isn't. Per Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the bets are on the Over but roughly 70% of the cash is on the UNDER.
BET 0.55u on UNDER 49.5 (-110) in Utah-Washington at PointsBet
SEC Game of the Weekend: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 1 Georgia -11 (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN)
I'm not going to overthink this one. Georgia is beating opponents by an average of 21.8 PPG and are the reigning back-to-back national champions. Sure, Ole Miss is 6-2-1 against the spread (ATS) but Alabama smacked them 24-10 earlier this year.
Furthermore, Georgia waxes good teams. Since 2021, the Bulldogs are 7-1 straight up (SU) and 6-2 ATS vs. teams ranked inside the top-10 with a +17.3 SU margin. This includes Georgia's 15-point and 58-point victories in the last two national title games.
Bulldogs LBs Jalon Walker and Smael Mondon Jr. celebrate after sacking Missouri Tigers QB Brady Cook at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia. (Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)
Plus, the Rebels are terrible in high-leverage situations. Mississippi's offense is 112th in 3rd-down conversion and 46th in red-zone scoring rates. Ole Miss's defense is 85th in 3rd-down conversion and 75th in red-zone scoring rates.
BET 0.55u on Georgia -11 (-110) at PointsBet
NFL Germany Game of the Weekend: Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network)
First of all, this total looks suspiciously high. There have been 24 NFL games with a 40-point or lower total this season. Yet, Colts-Patriots featuring two awful quarterbacks has a total of 43 and "42" is a key number in the NFL.
Indy QB Gardner Minshew is a backup and New England QB Mac Jones is playing like a backup. Also, this is the rare time when the public is betting the Under. Per Pregame.com, more than 85% of the money is on the Under.
New England Patriots QB Mac Jones throws a pass against the Washington Commanders at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Call it a "hunch" but I think the NFL treats the Germans to a fun game Sunday. Much better than the Dolphins-Chiefs "rock-fight" we exported to Frankfurt in Week 9. The Colts are 6-3 to the Over this season and both teams could be in "F*** It" mode since neither has a lot to play for.
BET 0.28u on OVER 43 (-110) in Colts-Patriots at PointsBet
AFC North Game of the Weekend: Cleveland Browns +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX)
For what it's worth, this is my favorite bet this weekend. I picked the Browns to win the Super Bowl and this is a sell-high spot for the Ravens. They are coming off one of the best games any NFL team has played all year. Check out the link below for my Browns-Ravens deep dive.
BET 1.1u on Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-110) at PointsBet
NFL Week 10 Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX)
This is another barking 'dog I'm adopting for the weekend. Since last season, the Jaguars are 5-1 SU and ATS as home underdogs with wins over the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens.
Also, Jacksonville has the better QB-coach combo. Trevor Lawrence is a top-five quarterback in the NFL and Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl with backup QB Nick Foles winning Super Bowl MVP.