Weekend Betting Guide Featuring Cowboys-Bills, Ravens-Jaguars In NFL Week 15
I don't know if anyone is paying attention but I'm putting on a clinic in these Weekend Betting Guides. Last week, I swept the board and, because of which, I'm pressing my bets this weekend.
Also, I get so pumped about the sports calendar once the NFL starts scheduling Saturday games. It's a sign that Christmas is right around the corner, which is low-key the ultimate gambling holiday.
Weekend Betting Guide for December 15-17
College Hoops Action: No. 5 UConn Huskies (-3.5) at No. 10 Gonzaga Bulldogs, Friday at 10 p.m. ET
Outside of Big East basketball, I don't care about college hoops. However, I did graduate from St. John's University and grew up in upstate New York. So I'm bias when I say the Big East basketball is criminally underrated.
Case in point, UConn is college basketball's reigning champion and three different Huskies coaches have won a title since the Big Ten's last national championship. Yet, the Big East isn't even a "Power 5" conference anymore.
UConn Huskies big Donovan Clingan taking a 'bunny' vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels at Madison Square Garden. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
More importantly, the Bulldogs usually choke when it faces tougher competition. Since 2013, Gonzaga is 5-15 straight up (SU) and 7-13 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog including four consecutive losses.
Finally, 'Zaga is used to bullying its opponents but that won't work vs. Connecticut. A majority of Gonzaga's points come from inside the arc and on offensive rebounds. But, per Ken Pom, UConn is 6th in 2-point defensive field goal rate and 13th in defensive rebounding rate.
Bet 0.55u on UConn Huskies -3.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Saturday: Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
This is my favorite bet of NFL Week 15 and one of my favorite looks of the season. Before breaking down this matchup in detail, I grabbed the Vikings +3.5. That said, I'd be willing to play Minnesota down to +2.5 so there's still value here.
The cliff notes version of the handicap above is Bengals backup QB Jake Browning being overrated by the market and Vikings 1st-year defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a defensive mastermind.
Bet 2.1u on Minnesota Vikings +3 (-105) at FanDuel
'Tommy Cutlets' Game of the Weekend: New York Giants (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
Last week, New Orleans closed as -5.5 home favorites vs. the Carolina Panthers. Even at their worst, the Giants aren't as bad as the Panthers. New York has All-Pro talent on all three levels of the defense including DT Dexter Lawrence.
Giants backup rookie QB Tommy DeVito aka Tommy Cutlets is having a moment. NYG is on a 3-game winning streak and suddenly the Giants have an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
While DeVito has given the G-Men a jolt of energy, RB Saquon Barkley is leading the NFL in rushing yards since Week 6. Barkley should have a big-game Sunday vs. a New Orleans defense that is 26th in yards per rush.
New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley runs through a hole vs. the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
That said, Tommy Cutlets isn't why I'm backing Big Blue in Week 15. Instead, I'm fading Saints QB Derek Carr and head coach Dennis Allen as favorites. Allen is 6-15-1 ATS in his career as a favorite.
Bet 1.1u on the New York Giants +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
America's Game of the Weekend: Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-130), 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday
This will definitely bet the most bet game of NFL Week 15. There are going to be strong opinions for both teams. However, if both teams play their best game Sunday, the Bills will come out on top.
The Cowboys look unstoppable and come into Buffalo on a 5-game winning steak. But, their only road game over that span was at the god-awful Panthers. Dallas's offense and QB Dak Prescott plays worse in road games and Bills QB Josh Allen is a monster at home.
Risk 2u on Buffalo's moneyline (-130) at DraftKings
'Get-Out' Game of the Weekend: Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5), Sunday Night Football
Whether you're adding to your surplus or trying to break even for the week, everyone is going to bet Ravens-Jaguars on SNF. Perhaps wait until closer to kickoff before betting the Jaguars since the public will come in heavy on the Ravens as favorites.
"Baltimore -3.5" feels like an overreaction to Jacksonville's back-to-back losses. Last year, the Ravens were -3.5 favorites vs. the Jaguars on the road in Week 12. Jacksonville was 3-7 entering that game and Baltimore was 7-3.
Jaguars LB Foyesade Oluokun tackles Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. (Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Well, the Jaguars won that game 28-27 and this Jacksonville team is better than last year's. Plus, the preseason line for this game was Jaguars -1. Finally, Jacksonville is equipped to defend Lamar Jackson scrambling.
The Jaguars have two athletic linebackers they can use to spy Jackson. Pro Football Focus grades Jacksonville LB Devin Lloyd 7th out of 78 qualifying linebackers in rush defense and LB Foyesade Oluokun 14th.