Weekend Betting Guide: College Football Conference Championships, NFL Week 13
I put together another winning performance last weekend with bets in the NBA, NFL and college football. Since the beginning of the NFL season, my record in these Weekend Betting Guides is 35-26-3 and my bankroll is +10.47 units (u).
Weekend Betting Guide November 24-26 recap (4-1-1):
As you'll read below, most of my action this weekend will be in the college football conference championships. I'm making bets for all Power 5 title games and giving out my three favorite looks for Sunday in NFL Week 13.
Weekend Betting Guide for December 1-3
2023 Pac-12 Championship: Oregon vs. Washington (+9), Friday at 8 p.m. ET
I've already broken this game down in detail so feel free to check out the link above. My reasons for rolling with Washington is Oregon QB Bo Nix sucks in big games, Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. is the best quarterback in this game, and there's backdoor cover potential with UW.
Bet 0.55u on Washington Huskies (+9) at DraftKings Sportsbook
2023 Big XII Championship: Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-15), Saturday at noon ET
First of all, this line is suspicious. The Longhorns have gone from -13 favorites on the opener up to the current spread of -15. Obviously, going through the key number of “14” is a huge line move.
However, when you look under the hood, you realize Oklahoma State’s record is misleading. The Cowboys are a net negative in yards per play (YPP) and points per play.
Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers throws a pass against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Cowboys QB Alan Bowman has more INTs (11) than TD passes (10) this season. Whereas Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers is second in QB Rating in the Big XII and a 17/5 TD/INT rate.
Finally, line play is the most predictive aspect of football. The Longhorns are eighth in net line yards per snap and the Cowboys are 96th. As long as UT doesn't make costly mistakes, the Longhorns can name their score in the Big XII title game.
Bet 0.56u on Texas Longhorns -14.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
2023 SEC Championship: Georgia (-5.5) vs. Alabama, Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
This is the first Georgia-Alabama game since the Bulldogs beat the Crimson Tide 33-18 in the 2021 College Football Playoff title game. LSU represented the SEC West in last year's SEC championship and Georgia cruised to a 50-30 victory.
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While the Bulldogs are reigning back-to-back national champions, the gap between Georgia and 'Bama is larger this season. The Crimson Tide had two of the top-three 2023 NFL Draft picks on their team last year: QB Bryce Young and pass rusher Will Anderson.
Bulldogs QB Carson Beck passes against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
More importantly, the Bulldogs have a higher net YPP this season (+2.4 vs. +2.3). Plus, Georgia junior QB Carson Beck is better than former QB Stetson Bennett by QB Rating, completion percentage, and yards per pass attempt.
Lastly, Georgia's defense will shut down Alabama QB Jalen Milroe who only has two moves. Milroe is either throwing deep or scrambling. Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is a defensive mastermind and the Crimson Tide's offense is down this year.
Bet 1.1u on the Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings
2023 Big 10 Championship: UNDER 35.5 in Michigan-Iowa, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
I could spend an hour-plus digging deeper into the matchups or I could blindly bet an Iowa Under. I chose the latter. The Hawkeyes are 2-10 Over/Under (O/U) this season with -4.8 O/U margin on an average total of 35.
In fact, two of Iowa's past three games have totals of 27.5 and 25.5 and the Hawkeyes went Under in both. Not so surprisingly, the public is hammering the Over. Per Pregame.com, more than 75% of the action is on the Over. Yet the total hasn't budged off the opener.
Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines for the Wolverines' game vs. the Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
Last season, Michigan beat Iowa 27-14 and the Under cashed on a 42-point total. Both defenses are better this year and both offenses play at a snail's pace. The Wolverines are 121st nationally in plays per game and the Hawkeyes are 128th.
Bet 0.55u on UNDER 35.5 (-110) in Michigan-Iowa at BetMGM
2023 ACC Championship: Louisville (+1.5) vs. Florida State, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Every year there's a kerfuffle about what four teams the CFP committee will pick for the playoff. As a semi-college football fan, all of the commotion is a waste of time. These things usually sort themselves out.
Florida State's CFP resume is one of the hottest topic in college football. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury a couple of weeks back. Talking heads think the committee should pass on FSU even if it wins the ACC title and goes undefeated.
Louisville Cardinals QB Jack Plummer drops back against the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in Florida. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
However, even if Travis wasn't hurt, Louisville QB Jack Plummer would still be the best quarterback in ACC championship. Plummer leads the conference in QB Rating, completion percentage, and yards per pass.
The Seminoles will need Travis's backup, QB Tate Rodemaker, to step up Saturday. The Cardinals allow just 3.3 yards per rush, which ranks 16th nationally. Louisville's run defense is the reason its 12th in opponent's 3rd-down conversion rate and fourth in opponent's red-zone scoring rate.
Bet 1.1u on Louisville Cardinals +1.5 (-110) at FanDuel
NFL 'Sucker Spot' of the Weekend: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Perhaps "sucker spot" is a bit much. But, nearly 60% of the bets are on Denver as of Friday afternoon, per Pregame.com. A lot of people are saying Broncos coach Sean Payton is starting to figure things out and I disagree.
Instead, I'm crediting unsustainable turnover-luck for Denver's current 5-game winning streak. Over their last five games, the Broncos have a +13 turnover differential. It's more giveaways by Denver's opponents than takeaways by the Broncos.
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton talks to QB Russell Wilson prior to a game vs. the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
More importantly, Houston is TIERS above Denver in efficiency. The Texans rank 9th in net YPP and are +7 in 1st-down differential while the Broncos are 30th in net YPP and -42 in 1st-down differential.
Houston played in a 24-21 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend. The Texans had 6.1 YPP and QB C.J. Stroud threw for 304 yards with 2 TDs, 0 INT, and a 116.0 QB Rating. The bottom line is if Denver doesn't get turnover luck, Houston will prevail.
Bet 1.05u on the Houston Texans -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Game of the Weekend: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
Frankly, the only reason I'm betting this game is because it's the biggest game of the weekend. Against my better judgment, I'm going to roll with the Eagles as home underdogs because most sports betting content producers are touting the 49ers in this game.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts reacts after scoring the game-winning TD in overtime vs. the Buffalo Bills at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
I know San Francisco has better raw stats and Philadelphia's luck will run out eventually. However, betting against the Eagles at the Linc just feels wrong. I wish I had more than that for this pick but I don't. Hence the small bet size below.
Bet 0.28u on the Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-105) at Caesars
NFL 'Get-Out' Game of the Weekend: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (+6), Sunday Night Football
This is the time to fade the Chiefs. They housed the Las Vegas Raiders 31-17 last weekend. Since 2020, Kansas City is 8-16 against the spread (ATS) after double-digit wins. The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS as road favorites in those spots.
Furthermore, -6 is just too big of a number for KC to lay. If you do the 5-Point Flip Rule for home-field advantage, the Chiefs would be -11 favorites at home vs. the Packers. That doesn't sound right, does it?
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love throws down field vs. the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)
Also, Green Bay QB Jordan Love has been ballin'. Since Week 8, Love is fourth in expected points added per play blended with completion percentage over expectation. This stat in layman's terms is making scoring plays and throwing pass catchers open.
Love started for former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. the Chiefs in Week 9 of 2021 when Rodgers tested positive for COVID. The Chiefs were -7.5 favorites at home for that game and this KC team isn't as good as that one.