Weekend Betting Guide: College Football, Breeders' Cup Classic, NFL Week 9
I struggled to write a Weekend Betting Guide for November 2-3 despite sports betting being my first, second, and third priority this weekend. My Weekend Betting Guide for the 2024-25 football season has been an unmitigated disaster, and I'm 21-26 and -12.41 units (u). Even when I incorporate non-football sports, I'm donking off units.
That said, quitters never win, and I cannot get even by doing load management like the NBA. Instead, I have to go out and play or else I don't get paid. (That's a lie. I'm a salaried employee with PTO. Just indulge me.) Most importantly, there are too many good sports this weekend to stay out of the game, such as college football, NFL Week 9, and the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Weekend Betting Guide: November 2-3
- Bet 0.53u on the Penn State Nittany Lions +3 (-105) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes at BetMGM.
- Bet 0.58u on the Texas A&M Aggies -3 (-115) vs. the South Carolina Gamecocks at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Bet 0.55u on the Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 (-110) vs. the Wisconsin Badgers at Caesars.
- $20 WIN: #1 Forever Young at the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic.
- $1 Trifecta Box: 1, 11, 14 at the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic for a $6 total bet.
- Bet 1.15u on the Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-115) vs. the Atlanta Falcons at Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Bet 1.1u on the Green Bay Packers +3 (-115) vs. the Detroit Lions at DraftKings.
- Bet 2u on the Indianapolis Colts +5.5 (-110) vs. the Minnesota Vikings at FanDuel.
College Football Saturday
‘Big Noon’ Game of the Weekend: #4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State (+3)
Once my guy, and OutKick college football guru, Trey Wallace told me Penn State QB Drew Allar would play Saturday after exiting last week’s game with a leg injury, I locked in a bet on the Nittany Lions. Granted, it’s square because Penn State plus the points is one of the more popular bets with the public this week, allegedly.
However, there isn’t much separating these teams and I gave out the Nittany Lions (+500) to win the Big Ten during the preseason. Sports Reference does a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends margin of victory with strength of schedule.
The Penn State Nittany Lions +3 over the Ohio State Buckeyes is one of my picks in the 'Weekend Betting Guide' for November 2-3. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images)
Penn State has a +18.5 SRS and Ohio State has a +23.2 SRS. When you factor in PSU’s home-field edge, this game should be a "pick ‘em". Finally, the Nittany Lions are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. Ohio State under head coach James Franklin.
#10 Texas A&M (-3) at South Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a sell-high spot for the Gamecocks, who beat the Oklahoma Sooners 35-9 on the road October 19 before their bye week. Last season, Texas A&M was a -17 favorite over South Carolina, and the Aggies are much better this year.
Also, the Gamecocks lost at home to LSU, 36-33, who Texas A&M crushed 38-23 last week. South Carolina is just 2-3 in SEC games while the Aggies are 5-0.
Ultimately, I don’t see how South Carolina scores because Texas A&M can take away its ground game. The Gamecocks average 3.7 yards per rush (14th out of the 16 SEC teams) and the Aggies allow just 3.5 yards per rush on defense.
Wisconsin at Iowa (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
The Hawkeyes are a different team at home. Their only home loss was to the 7-0 Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa has scored at least 38 points in its four wins at home this season. The Hawkeyes beat the Badgers 15-9 last year when Iowa’s offense was comically bad.
The Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 vs. the Wisconsin Badgers is another pick in my 'Weekend Betting Guide' for November 2-3. (Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
This season, the Hawkeyes are sixth in the Big Ten in points per game. The secret to Iowa’s newfound offensive success is RB Kaleb Johnson, who leads the conference in rushing yards (1,144) and non-quarterback touchdowns (17).
Wisconsin’s rushing defense is surprisingly bad this season. The Badgers are 15th out of 18 Big Ten teams (LOL) in yards per rush allowed on defense. Last season, Wisconsin was eighth out of 14 Big Ten teams (still LOL) in yards per rush allowed, and Iowa still ran for 200 yards when they met.
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Breeders' Cup Classic Saturday, Post Time: 5:41 p.m. ET
Del Mar Racetrack near San Diego, California hosts this year's Breeders' Cup Friday and Saturday. The main event is the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic, Race 8 Saturday, for three-year-olds and upwards at 1.25 miles on the dirt track at Del Mar.
My pick is the #1 Forever Young representing Japan with 6/1 morning-line odds. Forever Young is the third betting choice, where he was on the tote board for the Kentucky Derby, the toughest field in the world for three-year-olds. He finished third by a head behind Mystik Dan and the #11 Sierra Leone at the Kentucky Derby.
Forever Young was "probably best that day", according to The Daily Racing Form. But, a slow beginning and a bad trip cost him the first jewel in the Triple Crown. He bounced back by winning his native Japan Dirt Classic last month. Forever Young is the best Japanese racehorse ever and has won six of his seven career races.
The other horses in my Trifecta Box are Sierra Leone and the #14 Next. Sierra Leone has hit the money in his eight career races, including second in the Kentucky Derby, third in the Belmont Stakes, and third in the Travers Stakes. Next has won seven straight races and nine of 10, and is cutting back in distance. He's clocked 100+ Beyer Speed Figures in all nine of those wins.
$20 Win: #1 Forever Young
$1 Trifecta Box: 1,11,14 ($6 total bet)
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‘Trap Line’ of NFL Week 9: Cowboys (+3) at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
No one wants anything to do with the Cowboys after losing back-to-back high-profile games vs. the Lions in America’s Game of the Week in Week 6 and the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football last week.
Nonetheless, Detroit and San Francisco are favorites to win their respective divisions and played in the NFC title game last season. Whereas four of Atlanta’s wins are vs. NFC South, the worst division in the NFL.
Bettors will see the Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints, which hammered Dallas by 25 points, and think "Atlanta -3" is a good price. Yet, styles make fights and the Cowboys match up well with the Falcons. Dallas has the second-highest pass rate in the NFL behind the Seattle Seahawks, who crushed Atlanta 34-14 in Week 7.
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott throws the ball against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 8. (Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images)
Furthermore, the Falcons have the worst sack rate in the league. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will probably attempt 35+ passes since Dallas has the worst rushing attack in the NFL. If Prescott gets enough time, he'll carve up any defense. Atlanta closed as -3 favorites vs. Seattle and Dallas is better than the Seahawks.
Finally, Cowboys first-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer was Falcons QB Kirk Cousins’ at the Minnesota Vikings from 2018-22. Zimmer is one of the most respected defensive minds in the NFL and is obviously familiar with Cousins.
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‘America's Game of the Week': Lions at Packers (+3), 4:25 p.m. ET
I don't care who starts as the quarterback for Green Bay. According to NFL data scientist Ben Baldwin, the Packers have two quarterbacks (backup QB Malik Willis and first-string QB Jordan Love) better than Lions QB Jared Goff by adjusted EPA.
Furthermore, this is Goff's first outdoor game this season. Goff's completion rate is nearly 6% lower outdoors (68.0-62.4%) and his QB Rating goes from 100.1 in domes to 89.5 outdoors. Green Bay's weather forecast for Sunday predicts temperatures in the mid-50s with a high chance of rain during the Lions-Packers game.
Green Bay Packers LB Rashan Gary tries to bat Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff's pass at Lambeau Field. (Benny Sieu-Imagn Images)
Moreover, this is the peak of Detroit's market price. The Lions have scored 42+ points in three of their last four games and lead most NFL pundits' power rankings. This was the case last season before Detroit got throat-punched by the Baltimore Ravens 38-6 in Week 7.
Lastly, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur is a G. The Packers are 12-3 straight up (SU) and 15-6 ATS as an underdog vs. teams with a winning record under LaFleur. They are 6-3 SU and ATS as ‘dogs in NFC North games with a +6.6 spread differential, and 6-2 SU and ATS as home ’dogs with LaFleur coaching.
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Sunday Night Football: Colts (+5.5) at Vikings, 8:20 p.m. ET
As soon as the Colts announced they were replacing QB Anthony Richardson with QB Joe Flacco Wednesday, I ran to my computer and wrote my Indianapolis +5.5 handicap. Instead of regurgitating what I've already discussed, click the link in the sentence before or listen to this week's OutKick Bets Podcast featuring David Troy. For the record, the Colts +5.5 is my favorite bet in NFL Week 9.
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