Why The Washington Commanders Are A Good Bet At Philadelphia Eagles In Sunday's NFC Title Game

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A rookie quarterback has never won or even started a Super Bowl. However, we've never seen a rookie like Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, who looks to make history when he meets the divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles Sunday in the 2025 NFC Conference Championship. 

Daniels and Co. upset the 1-seed Detroit Lions 45-31 in the divisional round after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 in their wild-card game. Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Daniels completed 69.7% of his passes for 567 yards, 4 TDs, no interceptions, and an 86.8 QBR. 

While the Green Bay Packers lost to Philly 22-10 in the wild-card round and the Los Angeles Rams lost to Philadelphia 28-22 last weekend. I'm phrasing it that way because the Eagles have a +6 turnover margin in those two games. I.e. their opponents beat themselves more than the Eagles played well. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles converted 16 first downs vs. the Rams and Packers, tied for their season-low. If you remove the three TD runs by Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts (44 yards) and RB Saquon Barkley (72 yards and 68 yards), the Eagles had 2.9 yards per play against the Rams last weekend. 

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders Sunday at Lincoln Financial Stadium for the 2025 NFC Championship. (Photo credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders Sunday at Lincoln Financial Stadium for the 2025 NFC Championship. (Photo credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

The Eagles were -3.5 at home in their 26-18 win over the Commanders in Week 11. Philly was 7-2 entering that week and Washington was 6-3. Ipso facto, the "Eagles -6" for the NFC title game is at least 1.5 points too high. Daniels balled vs. Philadelphia in a 36-33 win in Week 16, throwing a career-best five TD passes with 81 rushing yards on 9 carries. 

RELATED: Vic Fangio Believes Jayden Daniels Is Probably Best Rookie QB Ever

Daniels had a 96.2 QBR in that game. QBR is better than QB Rating because it’s on a normal 0-100 scale instead of this 158.3 perfect QB Rating nonsense, and QBR accounts for rushing. Granted, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts got hurt in the first quarter of that game. Yet, Hurts has been injured late in the season for the past couple of years now. 

Hurts was concussed at the end of the regular season and hurt his knee last week in the divisional round. In Philadelphia’s Week 11 win vs. Washington, Hurts didn’t throw a TD and ran for only 39 yards on 10 carries with 1 TD. Plus, Philly's passing game is awful despite an awesome group of skill-position players and one of the best offensive lines in football. 

The two-time Pro Bowler has thrown for just 259 yards in these playoffs and has taken 9 sacks, including 7 sacks by the Rams in the divisional round. Hurts is 31st in sack rate and Washington’s defense is seventh in sack rate. He has fewer than 200 passing yards in five of his last six full games played. 

Also, Philly's defense is massively overrated, and I can prove it. The market acts like the Eagles are the ‘85 Chicago Bears or ’01 Baltimore Ravens, and can overcome bad quarterback play in a freaking conference championship. Sure, Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave them a 90.6 grade during the regular season. But, as bold as this sounds, PFF is just wrong. 

For context, the Kansas City Chiefs are second with a defensive grade of 79.7. The gap from Philadelphia to Kansas City is as wide as the Chiefs to the Seattle Seahawks, which has PFF’s 15th-highest grade. Last season, PFF gave the New York Jets the highest defensive grade, 90.0, and the Baltimore Ravens were second at 89.8. 

Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels throws the ball out of his end zone vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 11. (Photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)

Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels throws the ball out of his end zone vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 11. (Photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images)

Philly has the fifth-worst pressure rate (17.9%) and 15th in sacks (41). Two years ago, when they made the Super Bowl, the Eagles led the NFL in sacks (70) and had the second-best pressure rate (25.5%). KC had the fifth-highest pressure rate (26.1%) during the regular season, and only two more missed tackles and two fewer sacks than the Eagles. 

Ultimately, I believe Daniels will play a good game and Philadelphia's defense cannot shut him down. The Eagles, on the other hand, have to score without a passing game. Barkley will probably rip off a 50-plus-yard TD run, but then what? Nothing, that's what. So, give me the better quarterback (Daniels) and a head coach with Super Bowl experience (Dan Quinn) plus the points. 

Prediction: Commanders 24, Eagles 22 

  • BetMGM has the best odds available for the Commanders as of Wednesday afternoon: Washington +6 (-105) with a +240 moneyline. If your standard bet is $100, then I'd put $105 on the Commanders +6 (-105) and sprinkle $25 on their moneyline.

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