Virginia's Lockdown Defense Will Keep Miami In Check

Miami vs. Virginia, 7:00 ET

It wasn't a great basketball week last week for me - the NBA has been brutal, and college basketball was a roller coaster. However, this weekend was solid for college hoops as we were able to take down both of our Saturday plays that I gave out. The first game was between Kansas and Houston and we were able to get Kansas at home in a sweat-free game. The next one was Kentucky and Tennessee where I recommended the over and the total of that game flew over as the teams combined to score almost 200 points. I'm looking for another one tonight the same way so that we can relax and just collect our money. Tonight we have a play on the game between Miami and Virginia in an ACC battle. 

Miami comes into this game with a 15-7 record and the majority of their losses have come in conference play. They are just 6-5 in the ACC matchups as they struggle to find the footing they have that carried them to the final four last season. Obviously, in college, everything is different year-to-year as the teams lose and gain players. Of the past five road games that Miami has played in, they are 2-3. The first loss was to Wake Forest in overtime, the they beat Virginia Tech on the road. They played a close game with Syracuse but ultimately fell by three points. There was a convincing win over Notre Dame, but the most recent road game came against North Carolina State where they lost by just six points. The trend here is they are beating the teams they should beat, and the ones that are more competitive, they at least keep close, but ultimately drop the game. Miami has only had to have two games against ranked opponents this year and gone 1-1. Virginia isn't ranked, but they are a school you have to expect that will make the big dance. I do like the Miami squad. They have four different players that average over 14 points per game. Their forward, Norchad Omier, is averaging almost a double-double and keeps the team in a lot of games with rebounds and putbacks. The guards from Miami are athletic and good outside shooters. The biggest problem is their turnover issue, and that is a spot that I think Virginia can capitalize on in this game. 

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - MARCH 26: (L-R) Wooga Poplar #55, Isaiah Wong #2, Nijel Pack #24 and Norchad Omier #15 of the Miami Hurricanes watch free throws during the second half against the Texas Longhorns in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at T-Mobile Center on March 26, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Virginia is one of the better teams in the nation even if they don't have a number next to their name at the moment. They started the year at 9-1 with their only loss coming against a strong Wisconsin team on a neutral court. Since that point, they've gone 8-4 and currently sit with a 17-5 record. They lost at Memphis in a came they couldn't get anything going. They also lost to Notre Dame in a game that was far less excusable. It also was almost an identical score to the loss against Memphis. After they beat Louisville, they dropped another two games on the road one against North Carolina State and Wake Forest. They've lost all four of those games on the road by a combined total of 80 points. That's the main reason they aren't a ranked team, but the ranking could be coming shortly as they have now won six straight games and held opponents under 60 points in four of their past six contests. They weren't all home games, just for the record. This is a pretty typical Virginia team, one that has their highest scorer averaging 13.3 points per game. One other guy averages 11.7 and another at 9.5 points. They don't turn the ball over much, and they do find the open man, but they aren't great scorers. They play at a slow pace and make their opponents work for every bucket. 

If this game becomes a shootout then Miami is going to win it. However, at home, Virginia probably has a better chance to pace the game and control the flow. Virginia's defense will struggle at times in this game against the more athletic and probably more physical front court of Miami. The defense of the Virginia guards should make it difficult for Miami to get into a groove and if they create the turnovers Virginia should win this game by seven or eight points. I'll take them to cover the -5.5.

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