Virginia, Auburn Among College Hoops Conference Tournament Locks For Thursday
March Madness is in full swing with 57 conference tournament games tipping off in college hoops Thursday. I whiffed by backing Virginia Tech's spread vs. NC State Wednesday so I need to recoup the lost units.
My three bets Thursday are in the ACC tourney's North Carolina-Virginia showdown, the SEC's Arkansas-Auburn matchup, and a Mountain West game between New Mexico-Utah State.
ACC Conference Tournament: 2-seed Virginia Cavaliers vs. 7-seed North Carolina Tar Heels, 7 p.m. ET
I was in the middle of breaking down why I like UNC plus the points here before jumping ship to VIRGINIA -2.5 (-110). North Carolina is a public 'dog, which sportsbooks tend to slaughter.
Per Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money is on the Tar Heels in the consensus market at the time of writing. But, the Cavs opened as 1-point favorites and have been steamed up despite one-way action toward North Carolina. Hmmm.
These teams split their regular season with the home team winning and covering both. The main differentiator in the meeting UNC won was from behind the arc.
The Tar Heels hit six more 3-pointers than the Cavs last month because they played in Chapel Hill. That's unlikely to continue since UNC ranks 240th out of 363 programs in effective field goal shooting.
Virginia PG Kihei Clark shoots against North Carolina G R.J. Davis at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
North Carolina is overrated because it played in the national title game last season. The Tar Heels are just 1-8 in Quad 1 games this season and the sportsbooks are trying to goad bettors into backing UNC.
Virginia has much better ball movement than North Carolina and a better shot profile. The Cavaliers are 2nd in assist-to-field-goal made rate and the Tar Heels are 311th, according to KenPom.com.
UNC attempts fewer "close" 2-pointers and UVA gets a lot more dunks and allows the fewest "close" 2-pointers in the ACC, according to BartTorvik.com.
College Hoops Best Bet #1: Virginia -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -3
The Virginia Cavaliers' moneyline vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC Conference Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook.
SEC Tournament: 7-seed Auburn Tigers vs. 10-seed Arkansas Razorbacks, 7 p.m. ET
The gist of my handicap is Arkansas +3 is too many points in a matchup that's essentially a coin-flip. The Razorbacks are slightly more efficient on offense but the Tigers have the edge on defense.
However, according to VSIN, roughly three-fourths of the action is on Arkansas at the time of writing. Since I cannot figure out why people are backing the Razorbacks, I'll fade the public.
Auburn Tigers big Johni Broome dunks the ball on the Arkansas Razorbacks at Neville Arena in Auburn, Alabama. (Michael Chang/Getty Images)
Auburn smacked Arkansas 72-59 at home in their only regular-season meeting on Jan. 7, easily covering as 2.5-point favorites. Granted, Razorbacks' superstar freshman G Nick Smith Jr. was out with an injury.
But, Auburn is 2-2 straight up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. ranked teams with a +3.9 ATS margin. While Arkansas is 2-7 SU (-6.0 SU margin) and 3-6 ATS (-4.8 ATS margin) vs. ranked foes.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Auburn +3 (-105) at DraftKings, down to +2.5
The Auburn Tigers' odds vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks in the 2023 SEC Conference Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mountain West Tourney: 3-seed Utah State Aggies vs. 6-seed New Mexico Lobos, 11:30 p.m. ET
Utah State swept the season series with New Mexico 2-0 SU and ATS. In fact, the Aggies have won six straight over the Lobos and are 4-2 ATS in those meetings.
The reason Utah State has been successful vs. New Mexico is because both teams have similar identities but the Aggies have a much better shot profile.
According to BartTorvik.com, Utah State leads the Mountain West in percentage of dunks per game and New Mexico attempts the most inefficient "far" 2-point shots in the conference.
Utah State Aggies C Trevin Dorius goes for a putback against the SMU Mustangs at SimpliFi Arena in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
The Aggies rank 6th nationally in 3-point percentage out of 363 programs and the Lobos are 255th in 3-point-attempt rate allowed, per KenPom.com. If New Mexico allows Utah State to chuck 3s then the Lobos are going to get smoked.
Utah State has more size, experience and ball movement and Aggies PG Steven Ashworth is the best player on the floor. Ashworth has the best offensive rating of any player in this game and leads the conference in Win Shares per 40 minutes.
College Hoops Best Bet #3: Utah State -3.5 (-115) at DraftKings, up to -4.5
The Utah State Aggies' odds vs. the New Mexico Lobos in the Mountain West conference tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook.