Vikings Will Beat The Chargers In NFL Week 3 In A Battle Of Mediocre Teams
Currently, the Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) vs. the Minnesota Vikings (0-2) in NFL Week 3 is priced as a coin-flip, which I get. Both teams have QBs that put up numbers and atrocious defenses.
However, this even-money-ish line means home-field isn't worth anything. Or the market is saying the Chargers are roughly 3 points better on a neutral field. I disagree with both ideas.
Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins throws the ball vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. (Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
The Vikings have a sneaky good home-field edge at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Since signing Kirk Cousins in 2018, the Vikings are 27-15 straight up (SU) at home in the regular season. They need this game like blood so I expect a packed and raucous crowd at U.S. Bank Stadium Sunday.
Also, these teams are mirror images of each other. Except Cousins is playing better football Justin Herbert. LA actually has the worst defense in the NFL through two weeks. And the Chargers don't have an identity.
Chargers at Vikings Week 3 odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 3 from PointsBet as of 1:45 p.m. ET Wednesday, Sept. 20th.
First of all, this is a great spot for the Vikings. They are 13-4 SU and 10-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in regular-season home games after a loss since 2018. The Chargers are playing their 2nd straight road game after playing an overtime-game vs. a physical Tennessee Titans team last week.
Furthermore, Minnesota's previous game was a 34-28 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football, Sept. 14th. This gives the Vikings extra time to rest and prepare for this must-win game.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins stands on the field after an incomplete pass vs. the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
With that in mind, give me Vikings 1st-year defensive coordinator (DC) Brian Flores over Chargers head coach Brandon Staley. Flores masterminded the New England's defensive game-plan in the 2019 Super Bowl when the Patriots crushed the LA Rams 13-3.
Staley is a "defensive guy" that was hired in 2021. He was the Los Angeles Rams' DC the year prior and the Rams had the best defense in the NFL. But, the Chargers' defense has been hot garbage since hiring Staley. This Chargers defense has talent so Staley doesn't have an excuse.
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Through the 1st two weeks, the Chargers are last in yards per play allowed, last in defensive expected points added per play and 31st in defensive success rate. Both the Miami Dolphins and Titans gashed LA's defense with explosive plays in Weeks 1 and 2.
Chargers coach Brandon Staley talks to QB Justin Herbert before an NFL regular-season game with the Jacksonville Jaguars at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Also, both teams are 0-2, but, when you look under the hood, you'll see that the Vikings are more efficient. Minnesota is +1.6 in net yards per play (nYPP) through two weeks (LAC is -1.4 in nYPP).
It's not like the Chargers have played a much tougher schedule. Again, they faced the Dolphins at home in Week 1 and Titans last week. The Chargers beat Miami last season and Tennessee had a 7.5-win total preseason.
Minnesota hosted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 and visited the Eagles in their home-opener last week. Say what you will about the Bucs but they have a talented roster and won the NFC South in 2022.
Tampa Bay and Philly's defenses are tougher than Miami's and Tennessee's. Yet Cousins has a better QBR and yards per pass than Herbert. Plus, Minnesota WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should have a field-day against LAC's weak secondary.
Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. Per Pro Football Focus, more bets are on the Chargers but more money is on the Vikings. Since sharps put up more dough than you or I, it's wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public.