Verlander Will Lead Astros To Win As Underdogs

Astros vs. Phillies, 6:40 ET

In what could be a World Series preview matchup we not only get two great teams battling, but we get two top pitchers dueling as well. This game should be one of the more interesting of the day, and allows us to get a taste of playoff baseball before we reach the finish line of the regular season. In the grand scheme of things, this series doesn't matter much - the Phillies are almost certainly going to get a playoff spot, and likely the division. The Astros still need to battle their way into the playoffs a bit, but have a 3.5 game lead in the division (the Wild Card is almost certainly not going to happen for them). I won't let it take away from my excitement about tonight's game between the Astros and Phillies.

I wonder how much hatred the Astros still have after the cheating scandal from years ago. I suppose I can understand some of it to a certain extent. I didn't lose money on them or make money on them in those games anyway, so I can't say that I have much of an issue with it. I also don't care about the steroid users or anything else though - most of the time I'm thinking if you can get an edge, take it. They still have to execute even if they are juiced up or getting signals of what is coming a split second ahead of time. Regardless the Astros won the World Series without cheating (as far as we know) after the scandal and have continued to field a competitive team. At the start of the season it looked like they were going to finally fade. A great stretch and the failing Mariners offense has allowed the Astros to take first place in the division. One key to all of their success takes the mound tonight with Justin Verlander taking the ball. Verlander has been hampered by injury this season with a 3-3 record and a 3.92 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Verlander returned to action last week against the Red Sox and went five innings, throwing 76 pitches. He allowed Boston to score two earned runs on four hits while striking out six hitters. He hasn't faced Philadelphia this season, but has held them to just a .220 average over his career. 

Jul 5, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies have had a different type or stretch of success. They haven't found their way to the top of the mountain, but they made the World Series two years ago and they made it to the NLCS last year. This year they looked like the best team in the National League for the majority of the season. Sure, there have been some bad stretches, but since around May, the team has had the lead in the NL East and looks like they are unlikely to relinquish it any time soon. They should be the favorite to win the NLCS and potentially even World Series this season. I have them above the Dodgers because they have better pitching and are one of the few teams that can compete with Los Angeles's offense. One of the aforementioned pitchers they have is tonight's starter, Aaron Nola. Nola is putting together one of his better years with an 11-6 record, 3.45 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP. What I really like about Nola is that he has bene rather consistent this season, with no drastic split in any way. This hasn't been a great month for him as he has only one quality start and has allowed 32 hits in 23 innings. Nola has been good against the Astros, holding them to just a .206 batting average against him.

Part of me thinks that this should be a low-scoring game. Verlander and Nola are both not in ideal form though. It is very possible that both of them allow a ton of runs or they both allow nothing. Both teams are playing pretty good baseball as well, which leads me to take the Astros in this one. I think the game is a little mispriced. The Phillies are -142 on the moneyline, but with Verlander and their improved bullpen, I think they should win it. I'm going to back the Astros at +120 because I think there is good value on them.

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