Valspar Championship 2023 Picks Include Two Rookies And Two Vets

Published|Updated

The Valspar Championship 2023 tees off Thursday, March 16 at the Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida. This is the final tourney of the four-event Florida Swing of the PGA Tour season.

I cashed an outright bet when reigning champion Sam Burns went back-to-back by winning last year's Valspar. Burns returns to defend his title and the field is much weaker than the prior two "elevated events."

Last week, new world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler cruised to a sixth-career victory at THE PLAYERS Championship 2023 by five strokes.

THE PLAYERS was my fourth straight losing event. Ben Griffin triple bogeyed to finish outside of the top-10, costing me a winning week. But, Hideki Matsuyama tore up TPC Sawgrass in Round 4 and finished in 5th to reduce the damage.

My 2022-23 PGA Tour balance fell to +10.38 units (u) after a -1.28u performance at THE PLAYERS Championship 2023. The grading of my bet slip for THE PLAYERS Championship 2023 is at the bottom.

Earlier this week, I introduced the betting odds for the Valspar Championship 2023 with an event preview and course breakdown of Innisbrook.

Valspar Championship key stats

Valspar Championship '4 Horsemen'

Justin Rose

Rose has the 5th-best odds to win this week at +2200 but he is No. 1 in my Valspar power rankings. He is 1st in total SG for this field over the last 24 rounds.

We know Rose has true "win equity" because he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am last month. Rose finished 6th in THE PLAYERS Championship last week and 18th at the Farmers Insurance Open in January.

Justin Rose plays his shot from the 15th tee during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Justin Rose plays his shot from the 15th tee during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Rose is 1st in my stats model over the last 36 rounds and 17th in SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds. Also, his game fits this course and Rose plays well in similar conditions to Valspar.

There could be 20+ mph wind gusts at Innisbrook this week. Rose is 7th in total SG for this field in windy weather conditions. Innisbrook will be harder than last year. Rose is 3rd in total SG at Par 71 courses with difficult scoring conditions.

These are the best odds I found and bet for Justin Rose:

Justin Suh

Suh was 2019 Pac-12 Golfer of the Year competed against Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff for best collegiate golfer.

All three of won PGA Tour events but Suh's professional career was derailed early by injuries. After winning the Korn Ferry Championship last year, Suh is making up for lost time.

After missing cuts in his first three events this season, Suh has made 11 consecutive cuts since and has played well in the Florida Swing.

Justin Suh plays an approach shot on the 1st hole during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Justin Suh plays an approach shot on the 1st hole during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Suh finished 5th in The Honda Classic 2023 at the end of February, 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 earlier this month, and sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship last week.

The rough at Innisbrook is going to be 0.75 inches longer so you have to hit fairways. Suh is 3rd in this field for Good Drives gained, which blends driving distance with accuracy.

He is 1st in SG: Par 3 (there are five Par 3s at Innisbrook), 15th in both GIRs gained, and SG: APP. Suh is 1st in my stats model over the last 24 rounds and has the most total SG in this field over that span.

These are the best odds I found and bet for Justin Suh:

Gary Woodland

I need to be reminded why I don't bet Woodland anymore and the best way to do that is by losing money on him at the Valspar. Woodland cost me mad money last season but his numbers are popping on my models.

Woodland is 4th in my key stats model over the last 24 rounds, 7th over the last 36 rounds and 14th over the last 50 rounds. He is 7th in this field for total SG in windy weather conditions, which is usually a factor in Florida.

If Innisbrook truly has more difficult scoring conditions this year then I want to back golfers like Rose and Woodland who are former major champions.

Woodland is a three-time PGA Tour winner and the 2019 U.S. Open champ. In fact, Woodland won the Valspar in in 2011 when it was named the "Transitions Championship".

Gary Woodland plays his 2nd shot on the 18th hole during the 3rd round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Gary Woodland plays his 2nd shot on the 18th hole during the 3rd round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (David Cannon/Getty Images)

He is second for total SG in this field at Par 71 courses with difficult scoring conditions and 17th in both course history and comp courses.

Woodland's biggest weakness is putting. Woodland is 133rd in this field for SG: Putting on Bermuda and has dropped an average of 4.0 strokes on the greens over his last five events.

But, Woodland's course history and ball striking is too good to pass up in this weaker field. He is 2nd in Good Drives gained, 3rd in GIRs gained, 1st in PROX: 200+, and 5th in SG: APP.

These are the best odds I found and bet for Gary Woodland:

Ben Griffin

Griffin puked all over himself at No. 18 at TPC Sawgrass last week, falling outside the top-20, which cost me roughly 3u. But, I'm ready for Griffin to hurt me again because he has the game for this course.

Golfers will need to be good at scrambling if they want to compete at Innisbrook. Griffin is 3rd in this field for Scrambling gained and 7th in Sand Saves over the last 50 rounds.

Griffin is 8th in total SG for this field over the last 24 rounds. He has five top-20 finishes this season with a 3rd at the Wyndham Championship, which is played at a comp course to Innisbrook.

Ben Griffin looks down the line before attempting his putt during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Ben Griffin looks down the line before attempting his putt during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Jason Allen/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

Also, Griffin is +5.2 total SG in the 1st three events of the Florida Swing. THE PLAYERS, API and Honda are far harder than the Valspar. Griffin picked up strokes ARG and on the greens in all three.

Innisbrook is considered to be a "Carolina course in Florida" and Griffin played his college golf for UNC. There is no shame in losing to Scottie Scheffler last week and Griffin can break through in the much weaker Valspar.

These are the best odds I found and bet for Ben Griffin:

Valspar Championship Bet Slip

THE PLAYERS Championship Recap (-1.28 units)

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for all full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.